Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria Full Fight UFC on ABC 5 Part I
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For a crucial main event in the featherweight rankings on Saturday, the UFC makes its way back to VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. No. Josh Emmett, a five-ranked contender, takes on No. Ilia Topuria, 9, aspires to break his unbroken record to 14-0.

The five-fight UFC Jacksonville main card, which features the featherweight champion, is broadcast on ABC at 3 p.m. ET and is simulcast on ESPN+. ESPN's prelims start at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Emmett wants to recover from losing the interim title match to Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284 just four months ago. After defeating Calvin Kattar in a competitive split decision last June, "The Fighting Falmer" has demonstrated 25-minute cardio. This is his third consecutive camp workout in preparation for the five-round fight.

Topuria's first career major event will take place on Saturday. In his brief UFC debut, he has defeated 12 of 13 opponents but lost the third round on all three scorecards.

I'll outline my analysis and projections below, along with how to use them to place bets on the main UFC Jacksonville event.

Topuria, in my opinion, will one day rule the 145-pound division. I'll generally be more optimistic about his chances in any fight than the betting market as a whole.

The Georgian with Spanish training is a highly athletic and well-rounded mixed martial artist. Topuria also has the elite killer instinct you see in fighters like Charles Oliveira; he isn't trying to beat you up and submit you; instead of trying for minutes.

Topuria faces Josh Emmett, a muscular wrestler with the most knockdowns( 11) in featherweight history, in an intriguing matchup as he tries to crack the division's top five. Theoretically, Emmett has the option of counter-fighting to keep the fight going, potentially clipping Topuria with a strong overhand and knocking him out, or delivering the most potent blow over the course of several rounds to win the match.

Topuria is very self-assured and has a history of being careless. Before Topuria rallied, bit down and the mouthpiece, and ended the show in the pocket against a taller and longer opponent, Jai Herbert came dangerously close to knocking him out in their lightweight bout:

In this fight, the boxing matches should be competitive. Topuria is quicker, and I like his bodywork more than Emmett, who hits harder.

Emmett might attempt to land leg kicks to obstruct Topuria's motion. However, he cannot allow Topuria to attempt a takedown after being caught.

Early on, I could see Emmett playing the game of range kickboxing and inviting Topuria to crash the pocket at a comparatively slow pace.

Topuria will eventually attempt to close the gap and engage in combat. Although Topuria should have a clear advantage in jiu-jitsu if the match actually hits the mat, Emmett is probably the better wrestler. He can defeat opponents in a variety of ways thanks to his lethal top game.

Let's say Emmett is able to block the takedown attempts, maintain the fight, and trigger high variance exchanges( with the upper hand), or lull Topuria into a low-speed kickboxing match( where he can land the more potent individual strikes). He has a good chance of pulling off the upset in that situation.

However, given Topuria's speed advantage and the age difference of 12 years, the finishing upside on the feet appears to be fairly comparable. When there is a 10+ year age difference between UFC fighters, the younger fighter has won 70.7% of the matches with an average odds of- 145( 59%), which is almost 12% more than was anticipated.

Additionally, Topuria has all the offensive grappling potential, whether it be in terms of finishing or securing a dominant 10– 8 round with plenty of control time.

Stability is the one question that Topuria needs to respond to. Topuria seems more at ease fighting at lightweight than at featherweight, even though I'm willing to excuse him for tiring in his UFC debut on short notice. Additionally, any fighter used to defeating their opponents within ten minutes can find the championship rounds to be a challenging test.

Emmett has the power to extinguish anyone. However, Emmett might be drawing dead beyond a knockout if Topuria has five rounds of cardio.