Any time Conor McGregor fights, it's huge news for the UFC.
The Irish fighter is aware of his notoriety and plays it up every time he has a big fight. He will be stepping into the cage Saturday night at Madison Square Garden for New York City's UFC debut, and he spent much of Friday's weigh-in and press conference trying to egg on opponent Eddie Alvarez, the lightweight champion.
That's standard operating procedure for the reigning featherweight champion, who excels at the pre-fight hype activities. No one ever accused McGregor of being a shrinking violet of any kind, and that is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
But as the pre-fight hours go by, the need for hype disappears and preparation increases. McGregor (20-3) is a strong fighter with excellent striking ability, but Alvarez (28-4) offers a stiff test.
Odds Shark has McGregor as a minus-155 favorite (wager $155 to earn a $100 profit), while Alvarez is a plus-135 underdog. Additionally, Odds Shark has McGregor at plus-130 to win by knockout (or technical knockout), while Alvarez is plus-490.
Alvarez is plus-450 to win by submission, while McGregor is plus-2,000. The Irishman is plus-450 to win by decision compared to Alvarez at plus-475.
McGregor is a dominating striker with knockout power in both hands, but he should not underestimate Alvarez. The lightweight champ has won three fights in a row, and that includes a first-round stoppage of former titleholder Rafael Dos Anjos.
Dos Anjos is a powerful bull of a man whose style is to come forward and attack. That proved to be made to order for Alvarez.
He will not be so fortunate against McGregor, though, because the Irish fighter is not going to telegraph his attack by moving in just one direction. He is also quicker than Dos Anjos.
McGregor may come across as wild and out of control at weigh-ins and other publicity events, but he is a smart and thoughtful fighter when he steps in the Octagon. He excels at setting his opponent up with crisp strikes, and he will not force them.
He learned his lesson in March when he attempted to go for the early knockout against Nate Diaz and tired himself out, but Alvarez can't count on that again.
McGregor believes he will hurt Alvarez. "I predict I rearrange his face," McGregor said at the pre-fight news conference. "He's too easily hit."
If Alvarez is going to win this fight, he has to stay out of range of McGregor's strikes and use his best holds to neutralize the Irishman. Alvarez can strike, but he doesn't want to trade shots with McGregor because that's not going to work out for him in the long run.
Alvarez does not lack for confidence against his favored opponent, though. "I will go down as the best lightweight in history," Alvarez told reporters, according to Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com. "It will start with him, but then I'll make UFC great again. I'll continue to fight the No. 1 guys who belong here."
Prediction
McGregor knows how to fight on the big stage, and no stage is bigger than Madison Square Garden. A calm, confident and in-control fighter will replace the out-of-control image that he displayed at the weigh-in.
McGregor will pick his spots and find the right moments to deliver his best shots. Alvarez will get in his own punches and throw in some takedown attempts, but it will only buy him a bit of time.
Alvarez will eat several stunning combinations in the second round, and that's when McGregor will win the fight.
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