After the show the Utimate Fighting Championship put on for UFC 189 and in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter Season 21 Finale on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Frank Mir and Todd Duffee have tough acts to follow. The two heavyweights will clash in the main event of UFC Fight Night 71 in San Diego, California, on Wednesday night.
Mir is a legend and future Hall of Famer who likely saved his career with a knockout win over Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva in February. He had lost his previous four fights before coming up with the win over Silva. Mir will be hoping to make it two wins in a row against Duffee.
The latter is among the most devastating strikers in the heavyweight division. None of Duffee's professional MMA bouts have ever gone the distance. Every one of them has ended in a KO, and only two have made it out of the first round. Duffee famously stopped Tim Hague in just seven seconds back in 2009.
Duffee has been stopped twice in his career: once by Alistair Overeem in K1 and the other time by Mike Russow in Duffee's second UFC fight. When this guy steps into the Octagon, it's safe to assume somebody is going to get knocked out.
Mir is a wily veteran and one of the most prolific submissions fighters in MMA history. To win this fight, he has to take Duffee down. That's easier said than done. In addition to the brutal strikes Duffee launches at opponents, the 29-year-old from Evansville, Indiana, also has a 90 percent takedown defense rating in his UFC career, per FightMetric.com.
Damon Martin of UFC.com believes Duffee will finish Mir if he takes his time. Martin writes:
"If Duffee doesn't go out like a ball of fire and just try to torch Mir and instead allows the fight to come to him, he should be able to put together a combination to put the former heavyweight champion on the ground once and for all."
This is shaping up to be another first-round KO in favor of Duffee. As usual, he won't waste time pushing the action. Duffee's explosiveness will overwhelm Mir and lead to a KO victory.
Here's a look at viewing information as well as the entire card and predictions for each bout.
| UFC Fight Pass Prelims | 7 p.m. ET | |
| Matchup | Weight Class | Prediction |
| Kevin Casey vs. Ildemar Alcantara | Middleweight | Casey by decision |
| Andrew Craig vs. Lyman Good | Welterweight | Good by TKO |
| Fox Sports 1 Prelims | 8 p.m ET | |
| Matchup | Weight Class | Prediction |
| Sean Strickland vs. Igor Araujo | Welterweight | Strickland by decision |
| Rani Yahya vs. Masanori Kanehara | Bantamweight | Yahya by submission |
| Jessica Andrade vs. Sarah Moras | Women's Bantamweight | Andrade by decision |
| Sam Sicilia vs. Yaotzin Meza | Featherweight | Sicilia by KO |
| Fox Sports 1 Main Card | 10 p.m. ET | |
| Matchup | Weight Class | Prediction |
| Alan Jouban vs. Matt Dwyer | Welterweight | Jouban by TKO |
| James Moontasri vs. Kevin Lee | Lightweight | Moontasri by TKO |
| Scott Jorgensen vs. Manny Gamburyan | Bantamweight | Gamburyan by submission |
| Holly Holm vs, Marion Reneau | Women's Bantamweight | Reneau by submission |
| Tony Ferguson vs. Josh Thomson | Lightweight | Ferguson by decision |
| Frank Mir vs. Todd Duffee | Heavyweight | Duffee by KO |
UFC.com for card, picks by Mazique
El Cucuy Will Nip the Punk
Josh "The Punk" Thomson's last three losses have come by split decision. That number might grow to four after Wednesday. Thomson takes on the streaking Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson. The latter has won five fights in a row and ascended to No. 11 in the lightweight rankings.
His submission game has been excellent, and his striking vastly improved from earlier in his career. Thomson is usually an effective striker, as evidenced by his 48 percent striking accuracy, per FightMetric.com. However, it might be difficult finding the range against Ferguson.
El Cucuy will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage. As the longer fighter, Ferguson will control the distance and neutralize Thomson's attempts to score during standing exchanges.
Once the fight goes to the ground, Thomson is very tough to finish, but Ferguson is good enough to keep his opponent on the defensive. Based on Octagon control, Ferguson will win a decision.
The Bruiser Will Derail the Holm Hype Train
Holly Holm has excellent tools to develop into a solid mixed martial artist, but she lacks confidence and refinement in her grappling. Marion "The Belizean Bruiser" Reneau has a surplus supply of both qualities, and she's going to beat Holm.
Reneau is a cerebral but aggressive fighter. She'll come forward using angles and back Holm up against the cage. Her best quality is her versatility, which is something Holm lacks at this point in her career. At some point, the fight will go to the ground, and Reneau will have the opportunity to show off more of the submission skills she displayed in her victory over Jessica Andrade in February.
Reneau is 6-1 overall and has won five fights in a row. At 38 years old, she has a sense of urgency that helps to provide a spark. Per Jordan Newmark of UFC.com, Reneau said:
“I’m loving this ride. I have nothing to complain about. I’m really just enjoying the ride and trying to take it as far as I can and for as long as I can.”
With a win, Reneau could be one of the next in line to challenge for the women's bantamweight title—although Jessica Eye might have something to say about that when she takes on Miesha Tate on July 25 in Chicago.
Nonetheless, look for Reneau to send Holm back to the drawing board as her rise to stardom will hit a detour.
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