Tyron Woodley may be the most dangerous kind of opponent for Robbie Lawler right now—under-hyped and overqualified.
When the two occasional teammates at American Top Team meet at Saturday’s UFC 201, Lawler will likely be going off as something like a 2-to-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark.
Woodley is a worthwhile and even a dangerous opponent for the welterweight champion. However, this fight is popularly viewed as one Lawler just needs to get through to bring on the match-up most fans actually want see against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson sometime later this year.
In that way, Woodley conjures images of a couple of other underdogs who’ve challenged for UFC titles lately—Michael Bisping and Amanda Nunes.
Bisping came into his fight against Luke Rockhold at UFC 199 as a late injury replacement for Chris Weidman. It was considered a feel-good story for the longtime UFC vet to finally get a shot at the gold, but nobody gave Bisping a chance to win.
We all thought it would be a harmless detour in the middleweight title race. Rockhold would easily beat Bisping—just as he did in November 2014—and then get back to regular business against Weidman, Jacare Souza or another top contender.
But then Bisping knocked Rockhold out in the first round. Now, Marcelo Barone and Marcelo Russio of the Brazilian media outlet Combate reports he’s headed for an off-the-grid matchup with Dan Henderson, via Bloody Elbow's Lucas Rezende.
So, yeah, nobody saw that plot twist coming.
Leading up to Nunes’ women’s bantamweight championship win at UFC 200, the story was much the same.
When the UFC shuffled the pay-per-view card to put Miesha Tate’s title defense against Nunes on top, we assumed larger forces were at work. The UFC would cap its biggest night of the year with Tate beating Nunes and then challenging a returning Ronda Rousey inside the cage as the PPV went off the air.
It seemed simple and elegant—a perfect setup for a big-money third fight between Tate and Rousey.
Then Nunes choked her out in the first round.
Plans, meet sledgehammer.
Now comes Woodley, who is largely seen as a speed bump between Lawler and the fast-rising Thompson.
We’re all hyped about a potential meeting between Wonderboy’s exciting karate-based style and Lawler’s straightforward brawl-for-all. There’s just no way putting those two high-energy strikers together fails to produce a crowd-pleasing slugfest. Maybe even a potential fight of the year candidate.
That means Lawler just has to get through this fight against Woodley, and we all get what we want—though, obviously that’s been a deadly place for UFC champions to find themselves for the last few months.
Just don’t tell that to Lawler, who naturally insists it doesn’t matter who he fights.
“I’m not too worried about who is coming after me, everyone is coming after me,” Lawler said during a recent episode of UFC Countdown.
When you’re the champion, everyone wants what you have, everyone tries to throw their name in the hat. But what I concentrate on is getting better every day. I always look at myself as the underdog with something to prove. That’s why I continue to get better.
It’s not like Woodley shapes up as an easy opponent, however.
Despite the odds, he comes into this fight possessing of a skill set that could make things interesting for Lawler. Woodley is one of the welterweight division’s most accomplished wrestlers, a style that could come in handy in a five-round fight against a champion who has made a habit of winning close decisions.
Also, Woodley has knockout power in his hands, as evidenced by his TKO wins over Dong Hyun Kim, Josh Koscheck and Jay Hieron during his UFC career. Additionally, he defeated fellow top contender Carlos Condit via TKO in March 2014, though that victory came after Condit suffered a knee injury in the cage.
If you’re a Lawler fan, then Woodley’s well-rounded abilities might make you nervous, especially considering the following statistical analysis from MMA Junkie’s Mike Bohn:
Lawler has absorbed 691 significant strikes in UFC competition since Jan. 1, 2013, the most of any fighter in the company since that date.
Lawler’s 531 significant strikes absorbed in UFC championship fights are the most in history.
Lawler absorbs 5.5 significant strikes per minute in UFC championship fights, the second most in history among fighters with at least three title bouts behind Frank Mir (6.3).
As noted on social media this week, it’s possible all that punishment won’t be great for Lawler’s longevity:
Lawler has taken tons of punishment in his last few fights. He will probably show up as a shot fighter soon. Against Woodley already?
— Joona @MMAViking.com (@JoonaPylkas) July 27, 2016
Another thing that could make this a sneaky trap fight for Lawler is that Woodley comes in at perhaps one of the lowest profile moments of his UFC career. The former University of Missouri wrestler has spent close to 18 months out of action due to injury and other factors.
Woodley broke his foot in four places during his win over Kelvin Gastelum in January 2015, and it caused him to miss most of the rest of the year. In October 2015, he was scheduled to meet former champion Johny Hendricks at UFC 192, but the bout had to be scratched just one day before the event when Hendricks couldn’t make weight.
The time off hurt his Q-factor, but the patience paid off after Lawler battled through hard-fought meetings with Rory MacDonald and Condit. At first, a rematch with Condit was thought to be in the works, but the company eventually settled on the fourth-ranked Woodley, though the methodology used to make the choice remains as murky as ever.
(Woodley is currently ranked behind Thompson, MacDonald and Demian Maia on the official UFC contenders list, just in case you're keeping score.)
He insists he’s more than ready for this chance and that the time he’s spent away from the cage will ultimately be helpful. After conversations with men’s bantamweight champion—and colleague at Fox Sports—Dominick Cruz, Woodley told CBS Sports’ Robby Kalland that he doesn’t believe in ring rust:
What you do [during] your time off determines how you're going to look when you come in there. If you sit around feeling sorry for yourself, eating burgers and ice cream and cheese all day, you might go out there and be a little flat. But as we saw [Cruz] come back from a year layoff, he looked fresh, he looked good.
When Cruz returned after so much time away, he took the 135-pound title from T.J. Dillashaw in a command performance in January 2016.
If Woodley can match that perfect outing, he has a good chance to walk out of UFC 201 as champion.
And then the upset train will just continue to roll.
