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UFC 184: Early Predictions for Rousey vs. Zingano Main Event


UFC 184: Early Predictions for Rousey vs. Zingano Main Event

When it comes to women's MMA, UFC women's bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey hasn't yet found an equal inside the Octagon. At UFC 184, Cat Zingano will try to prove that she is Rousey's equal. 

To this point, Rousey hasn't just gone undefeated; she has obliterated anyone standing in her way. The 28-year-old's perfect 10-0 record is enhanced by the fact that all 10 fights have ended in stoppage. Her fights have combined for only 12 total rounds.

Rousey has been in the cage for as many rounds as one championship boxing fight. That's dominance. 

She hasn't fought an opponent quite like Zingano, though. The Alpha Cat has power, the kind that has led her to an unblemished record of her own. The 32-year-old is 9-0 with eight finishes. However, her brand of violence is not as dominant as Rousey's. She's fought in 22 rounds. 

Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano Tale of the Tape
Rousey Zingano
10-0 Record 9-0
5'7" Height 5'6"
135 Weight 135
66" Reach 68"
2 KO/TKO 5
8 Sub. 3
0 Dec. 1
-950 Odds +625

FightMetric.com; Odds via Odds Shark

Odds via Odds Shark as of Sunday, Feb. 22 at 11 p.m. ET.

So what will happen when these two unbeaten fighters enter the Octagon to close out UFC 184? Here's a look at all the essential information surrounding the bout along with an early prediction. 

When: Saturday, Feb. 28

Start Time: Fight Pass prelims at 7 p.m. ET (subscription required); Fox Sports 1 prelims at 8 p.m. ET; main card pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET

Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

Live Stream: UFC.tv

Fight Preview

As the long odds would indicate, there isn't much belief that Cat Zingano can get the job done against the champion. 

That's an understandable sentiment. The champion has done nothing but dominate the division since its creation. Miesha Tate surviving more than two rounds with Rowdy has been considered a feat. Rousey defended her belt twice in 2014 for a combined one minute and 22 seconds of actual fight time. 

What is scarier is that Rousey feels better physically heading into 2015 than she did in her dominant 2014, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports:

I'm perfectly healthy and better than ever before. I can just feel my body itching to fight again. ... You have to remember I've been pretty much fighting all my UFC fights with one leg. Now I feel better than I did when I was 16 years old fighting when I got my first knee surgery. I really feel rejuvenated like I molted or something and I have a brand new body. I allowed myself to rest and recuperate.

That being said, Zingano is still one of the best fighters in the division. There are areas where she could conceivably test Rousey, specifically on the feet. Here's how the two compare statistically as both strikers and grapplers:

Rousey vs. Zingano Stat Breakdown
Rousey Zingano
3.69 Strikes Landed/Min. 3.09
63% Accuracy 73%
2.33 Strikes Absorbed/Min. 1.85
52% Defense 43%
8.27 Takedowns/15 Min. 2.47
72% Takedown Accuracy 100%
60% Takedown Defense 55%
2:57 Average Fight Time 12:08

FightMetric.com

The area of concern for Zingano is takedown defense. Her rate of 55 percent is good enough to fend off most opponents, but Rousey isn't just another opponent. Where Alpha can generally use her muscle to work her way back to the feet, few have survived a Rousey takedown to stand and strike again. 

Zingano's ability to fend off Rousey's judo throws and takedown attempts will dictate just how long this fight lasts. 

Prediction

If Zingano's previous bout with Miesha Tate is any indication, this might be a short night of work for Rousey once again. While Zingano was able to ultimately defeat Tate via knockout, it wasn't before Tate nearly ended the fight with an armbar of her own in the second round. 

Here's Cupcake nearly ending the fight on her third takedown of the night against Zingano:

There are still those who believe Zingano can be the one to challenge Rousey, though. Julia Budd, who fought Rousey in 2011 under the Strikeforce banner, believes the champ will see her toughest test to date, per Steve Juon of MMAMania.com:

I can't see it ending...well I can see it ending by armbar but I see it going longer and Cat definitely being able to use her stand-up to keep Ronda (away). It's hard to vote against Ronda because she's been so dominant, but I think that Cat stands a good chance -- the best chance of any of the opponents she's faced.

Watching Zingano vs. Tate to its conclusion, the way the challenger dominated and finished the third and final round is something to applaud. There's an argument to be made that Zingano's power in close quarters could stave off the inevitable.

However, Zingano has also been taken down by Amanda Nunes in her other UFC bout. That's a trend that doesn't bode well for surviving to see a third, fourth or fifth round against the champion.

Rousey via first-round submission (armbar)

All bout and card information via UFC.com. All statistics via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

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