This Saturday, the UFC heads to a massive indoor arena in Sweden for UFC on Fox 14. The main event features the ultra-smooth Alexander Gustafsson taking on Anthony Johnson, who used to be a welterweight but is now one of the most terrifying men in mixed martial arts.
To the layman, this might feel like a setup for Gustafsson. Win the fight, get a rematch with Jon Jones.
They faced off back in September 2013, and Gustafsson took Jones to the limit in the best fight of the year before losing a unanimous decision. It was close enough that many observers actually gave Gustafsson the fight. MMA fans, not known for embracing shades of gray, immediately proclaimed it a robbery of the highest order and demanded a rematch.
But the immediate rematch never happened. Jones allegedly turned down a second fight with the Swede. Gustafsson had to face Jimi Manuwa before earning his rematch, but he then got injured and saw Daniel Cormier step in to take his place. And now Gustafsson must win another fight—this time in front of his fellow countrymen—before punching his ticket back to Jones.
Here, intrepid pundits Jeremy Botter and Jonathan Snowden try to answer The Question: Did the UFC miss the money boat by not forcing an immediate rematch between Jones and Gustafsson? Will Anthony Johnson kill any hopes of seeing that fight at some point in the future?
Jeremy: I feel like I should be more excited by this Saturday's main event between Gustafsson and Johnson, Jonathan, but I'm not. That's partially because it's directly between McGregor-Mania and next week's fight between Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz.
But it's also because there was a time when I was excited for a rematch between Jones and Gustafsson, and then it just sort of...never happened. As my dude B.B. King once crooned, the thrill is gone, mostly.
Jones and Gustafsson put on one of the best light heavyweight title fights of all time. It was close and it was intense and it was brutal, and the champion barely survived. It was the perfect recipe for an immediate rematch, and it would have done big box-office business.
But here we are, well over a year later, and Gustafsson is still trying to fight his way back to Jones. And on Saturday, he's facing a man who hits like a truck. I'm not saying Johnson will end Gustafsson's road back to the title, but there's a chance it happens.
If it does, we may never get that rematch. That makes me just a little bit sad.
Jonathan: I've never seen a fighter disappear from the conversation quite the way Gustafsson did in 2014. In the 15 months between the Jones fight and this upcoming bout with Johnson, Gustafsson has become an afterthought.
In that time he's fought a grand total of once—a tilt with journeyman Jimi Manuwa, a 34-year-old fighter in such small demand that he's never left England for a bout. To make matters worse, it wasn't even broadcast on television. It was an early bout on the UFC's premium streaming service Fight Pass. For most fans, it's like Gustafsson dropped right off the face of the Earth immediately after pushing Jones to the limit.
That's not a good thing.
It once seemed like the two men would walk into the MMA history books together. Now it feels like Gustafsson peaked with his performance at UFC 165. It was a baffling promotional misstep. Should he beat Johnson, a Jones rematch, though still a great fight, isn't quite the compelling contest it would have been last year.
Of course, that's assuming Johnson is going to fall short for the first time since January 2012. What do you think Jeremy? Can the former welterweight saunter right into Gustafsson's spot in a title bout?
Jeremy: Of course he can, Jonathan. Have you seen Anthony Johnson lately? He is terrifying. It is nearly impossible for me to reconcile the idea of this bruising, giant light heavyweight with the man who used to make the welterweight limit every once in awhile.
Of course, you were there with me in Los Angeles for UFC 104 when Johnson began having his real troubles with 170 pounds. You remember sitting in that lobby with me and seeing Johnson walk in? It has been a long time, and we are much older (especially you), but I seem to remember both of us shaking our heads at the notion that this man could ever make 170 pounds.
So, yes. Johnson can beat Gustafsson and waltz in there to face Jones, leaving Gustafsson and his title shot consigned to the dust bins of mixed martial arts history. All it takes is one punch. And if it happens, it'll be a shame. Because Gustafsson is an excellent fighter, full of skill and technique and all of that other stuff that makes up for his complete and utter lack of personality.
If he never gets another title shot, I feel like we'll be missing out. I don't know if that's the UFC's fault or just the way the cookie crumbles.
Jonathan: Who could forget that day in Los Angeles? Poor Johnson was trying to cut roughly a billion pounds, and I egged you into going to ask him about it, while I sat on a plush couch in an upscale hotel. As always, you were way more courageous than I was.
It's easy to look forward to future bouts or to mourn fights that never happened. But this fight is worth paying attention to in its own right. Gustafsson has the reach and skill advantage standing. But power makes up for technique deficiencies all the time in MMA. I think it might here too.
Folks in Florida are telling me that Johnson is showing championship form. I think he'll get his shot to prove it against Jones. I think he beats Gustafsson. You?
Jeremy: I'm somewhat terrible at predicting things. But I'm with you.
My gut is telling me Johnson is going to score a big upset here, likely by landing a power shot that would also kill a horse. In the process, he is going to kill any hopes we had of seeing Jones vs. Gustafsson 2. For the time being, anyway.
And as much as I like seeing new, fresh matchups—and Johnson certainly represents that—it'll be a shame if we never get to see Jones and the man who came the closest to dethroning him roll things back one more time.
