Everyone has an opinion on the rematch set to take place at UFC 202 between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz on Saturday.
Even your buddy who watched only UFC 100 and 200 probably has a take that he'd like to share with you.
King Conor will get his redemption. Diaz will do it again. Either way, there are a lot of opinions on who will win when these two run back their UFC 196 encounter.
It's a highly anticipated rematch for a reason. McGregor built himself into one of the UFC's premier stars during his rise to the featherweight title. Now everyone wants to know if he's bitten off more than he can chew in taking on a career lightweight at 170 pounds once again.
Here's a look at how the two match up, along with the latest odds from Odds Shark for the fight:
| Diaz | McGregor | |
| 20-10 | Record | 19-3 |
| 10:07 | Average Fight Time | 6:02 |
| 76" | Reach | 74" |
| 4.45 | Strikes Landed/Minute | 5.74 |
| 56% | Striking Defense | 59% |
| 1.22 | Takedowns/15 Minutes | 1.55 |
| 45% | Takedown Defense | 61% |
| 13/10 | Odds | 1/1 |
FightMetric; Odds via Odds Shark
Tickets: ScoreBig
The Case for McGregor
The onus to make adjustments is on McGregor in this one, but he's such a talent that a win isn't out of the realm of possibility.
According to the odds, he's technically the favorite, and there's reason to believe he will put it all together against Diaz this time out. McGregor's power and athleticism are still legitimate threats. As a result, Lyle Fitzsimmons of CBS Sports believes the Irishman will wind up with another TKO victory on his resume:
He's still the faster man. He's still a superior athlete. And he's still going to be able to play offense for a significant amount of time on Saturday night. The guess for the second go-round is that his shots will do enough damage to sap Diaz's strength, and he'll avoid disaster while finishing things his own way.
Although everyone remembers the choke that ended the fight, people sometimes forget that McGregor was landing on the feet early in the bout. He opened up a 28-23 advantage in significant strikes in the opening round.
The problem was that he couldn't keep up his pace while trying to knock Diaz out in the early rounds.
If McGregor is going to pick up the win, his athleticism will have to play a key role, as he uses his quickness and movement to sidestep Diaz's linear attack and counter on the move.
The key for a McGregor win is patience. He can't play to the knockout; he has to be efficient with his energy and focus on winning rounds. If he's able to do that, his more technical striking and superior movement will be enough to turn the tables on Diaz.
The Case for Diaz
The case for Diaz is fairly simple. We've already seen it in action.
At this point in his career, Diaz is who he is. He's going to use good boxing on the feet to pick apart opponents from range with his jab. He's going to sport spotty takedown defense, knowing that he's one of the slickest submission artists off his back. He's going to display relentless cardio that allows him to survive deep into fights.
Add in a chin that is capable of taking heaps of punishment and it's clear why the first fight unfolded the way it did.
Diaz wasn't a defensive genius the first time around. McGregor hit him with some punches that would have buckled any featherweight. The problem is that Diaz isn't a featherweight. He's a lightweight who is capable of competing in the welterweight division.
When McGregor's power couldn't end the fight early, he was in trouble. Diaz capitalized.
We've already seen how Diaz can beat McGregor, and it begins with fighting to his strengths, which is why Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report is picking Diaz:
Diaz's path to victory is much simpler: keep moving, stay off the fence and stick the jab in McGregor's face over and over and over again. That should wear the featherweight champion down and create opportunities for a late finish.
Many more things have to go right for McGregor's game plan to work than Diaz's, or McGregor has to land a knockout shot against one of MMA's most durable fighters. That's less likely than Diaz pumping the jab against a shorter fighter and sucking the fiery McGregor into a brawl.
Diaz has lost eight fights in his UFC career, but only one of those losses has come by anything other than decision. If McGregor is going to beat him, it might have to be by outstriking him for five rounds. That's a difficult scenario to envision.
Prediction
There's an attraction to picking McGregor.
Maybe it's the law of attraction that he loves so much. Maybe it's the bravado that he brings into the cage. Maybe it's the natural love for a comeback story.
It explains why he's favored against a bigger fighter who already beat him once.
But from an analytical perspective, it's easier to believe that Diaz will wind up with his hand raised again. The Stockton, California, native just so happens to be the perfect disaster for McGregor, whose greatness might not be enough to transcend all of the distinct disadvantages he has.
Getting a full training camp to get ready for Diaz will help. McGregor is an intelligent fighter who prepares well for his opponents and might not be as good at adjusting as he'd have people believe.
Even so, the pick has to be Diaz.
Prediction: Diaz wins via fourth-round submission.
