UFC-Belem main-event breakdown: Youth or experience with Eryk Anders vs. Lyoto Machida?

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 125’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event.

UFC Fight Night 125 takes place Saturday at Mangueirinho Gymnasium in Belem, Para, Brazil, and the card airs on FS1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

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Lyoto Machida (22-8 MMA, 14-8 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1? Age: 39 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74?
• Last fight: KO loss to Derek Brunson (Oct. 28, 2017)
• Camp: Kings MMA (California)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light-heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Shotokan karate black belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Crafty feints and footwork
^ Deceptive distance closer
+ Accurate left cross
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous left kick
+ Tradionally counter wrestles well
^ Solid base and balance
– Sometimes struggles off of back
– 0-3 against fellow UFC southpaws

Eryk Anders (10-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC)

Eryk Anders

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1? Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75?
• Last fight: Decision win over Markus Perez (Dec. 9, 2017)
• Camp: Spartan Fitness (Alabama)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ LFA middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Golden Gloves champ (Alabama)
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved striking flow
^ Devastating left hand
+ Underrated fight IQ
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Solid takedown ability
+ Excellent transitional grappling
^ Good positional awareness and rides

Summary:

The main event in Belem features a middleweight bout between Lyoto Machida and Eryk Anders.

A former champion who needs little introduction, Machida has made his mark on the sport with his trademark karate stylings. Now, with a chance to fight in front of a hometown crowd, Machida will attempt to halt a three-fight skid and return to glory.

Seeking to spoil the homecoming is Anders, a former linebacker for the University of Alabama who is translating his success seamlessly into MMA. Requesting this road game in Brazil, Anders will now have a chance to make a mark of his own.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two southpaw strikers who go about their business in different ways.

As I often preach in my breakdowns, a matchup of lefties can always be tricky, especially considering that most southpaws predicate their games on facing an opponent of the opposite stance. For this reason, the more “skilled” striker does not always demonstrate his perceived on-paper advantages.

With that in mind, I will be curious to see Machida’s approach in what will be his fourth straight southpaw opponent. But with an aggressive counterpart in Anders, I’m sure the former champion’s counter-striking style will be present and prevalent through the duration of exchanges.

Typically circling along the outside of range, Machida will lure his opposition into his space, keeping left-cross counters on a hair-trigger for anyone who commits to entering. Once finding offensive angles to his liking, the Brazilian blitzes in left-to-right punch continuums.

When feeling in stride, Machida will unleash his patented left body and head kicks, a weapon that has seemingly gotten stronger since his time spent with Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA.

Although it is hard to expect the 15-year pro to make any drastic changes, I will be interested to see if Machida applies defensive adjustments given the oncoming opponent at hand.

Anders, the more process-driven fighter, will pressure forward with his feet beneath him and his hands at the ready. Working behind prodding jabs, Anders keeps an accurate cross at the ready.

Demonstrating improvements from fight to fight, Anders does a better job of accompanying feints to his already fast distance closing abilities. Unloading punches with a thudding impact, the undefeated fighter variates his shots to the body before coming back upstairs.

And considering that Anders does his best work when forcing his opposition toward the fence (a place that has caused problems for Machida in the past), I would not be surprised to see another pressure-heavy approach from the American here.

In Machida’s middleweight title bout with Chris Weidman, we saw him initially struggle to get off offensively under the waves of suffocating strikes and takedown stanzas. Should Anders have similar intentions, I will be looking to see how he fairs in the takedown portion of the equation.

Anders appears to be the better wrestler by a good stretch at this point in their perspective careers. Having a preternatural feel for transitions, the 30-year-old changes his level seamlessly in the heat of battle, displaying an ability to chain his takedowns if his initial attempt fails.

Whether Anders is hitting takedowns from the clinch or reactionary shots in the open, it is on the floor where his skills and fight IQ shine brightest.

Working well from topside, Anders shows excellent shoulder-pressure that he uses to pin, pass or persuade his opposition into a specific direction. Coupled with his positional awareness and ability to ride while delivering punishing strikes, and Anders could make it a rough night out for the legend.

Historically, Machida has been hard to take down outside of well-timed shots or an outright out-muscling. When fighters attempt to clinch Machida, he does well at re-swimming for underhooks or even limp-arming his way to safety when he needs to. But if Machida fails to defend the takedown, he has proven to be far from impervious.

Although he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Machida has traditionally struggled when being put on his back, often displaying a lack of offense or even scrambling ability from the bottom.

Against Weidman, this cost Machida crucial rounds. Against Rockhold and Romero, it cost him brutal stoppages.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be firmly decided, listing Anders -300 and Machida +220 as of this writing.

As a longtime karate practitioner, part of me has always rooted for Machida to do well ever since watching his initial rise to the light-heavyweight title. That said, I believe the odds listed above are correct considering the current point in time these men are meeting.

Not only is Machida in the more advanced stages of his career, but he has always carried a style that is heavily reliant on speed and reaction times – the attributes that typically go first with age. Add on his recent record of stoppage losses against southpaw opposition, and I fear this a matchup that bodes poorly for Belem’s hometown hero.

The pick is Anders by a late first-round finish on the floor.

Official pick: Anders inside the distance

For more on UFC Fight Night 125, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.