UFC 221 co-main-event breakdown: Is Mark Hunt too much, too soon for Curtis Blaydes?

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 221’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC 221 takes place Sunday (but airs live in North America on Saturday due to the time difference) at Perth Arena in Perth, Western Australia, and the main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

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Mark Hunt (13-11-1 MMA, 8-5-1 UFC)

Mark Hunt

Staple info:

• Height: 5’10” Age: 43 Weight: 265 lbs. Reach: 72?
• Last fight: TKO win over Derrick Lewis (June 10, 2017)
• Camp: Galeb Brothers BJJ (Australia)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ K-1 grand-prix champion
+ Multiple kickboxing accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Deceptive speed and agility
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Changes timing and tempo well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Underrated takedown defense
^ Demonstrates solid fundamentals
– Traditionally struggles from bottom

Curtis Blaydes (9-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC)

Curtis Blaydes

Staple info:

• Height: 6’4? Age: 26 Weight: 265 lbs. Reach: 80?
• Last fight: TKO win over Alexey Oleynik (Nov. 4, 2017)
• Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ NJCAA national heavyweight wrestling title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 7 KO victories
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved striking ability
^ Shows fight-to-fight improvements
+ Explosive power-double takedown
^ Changes level well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Body locks, trips, suplexes
+ Solid top game
^ Floats, wrist-rides, strikes

Summary:

The co-main event in Perth features a heavyweight showdown between Mark Hunt and Curtis Blaydes.

A man who needs little introduction, Hunt has made his career by banging it out with the best in the world. Making another appearance Down Under, Hunt is tasked to defend his standing from a hungry young lion who’s looking to make a statement.

An accoladed junior college wrestler who jumped right into MMA, Blaydes did not take long to find the big stage. At heavyweight, everything, including opportunities against the sports most notable names, happens a bit faster.

Although Blaydes may have an on-paper disadvantage to Hunt in the striking department, I am not sure how wide that margin will be.

Blaydes, who has experience in amateur kickboxing, shows consistent fight-to-fight improvements each time out. From his developing footwork to this commitment to combination striking, the 26-year-old’s future looks bright.

Moving shop to Denver to work with the Elevation Fight Team and BANG Muay Thai, Blaydes will continue his progressions, I believe, especially considering his age.

That said, despite rolling his head offline of the occasional cross, Blaydes’ biggest holes are his defensive ones. And given who he is facing, I am not sure how much Blaydes will want to explore his striking skills here.

Enter Hunt.

Embodying a Somaon stature that gives the everyman hope, Hunt’s ability to deceptively change timing is what sets him apart from the pack.

Striking at blatant, lackadaisical speeds, Hunt baits opposition his way by lulling them into a false sense of security. After adjusting and achieving his reads, Hunt will then explode into fight-ending counter shots.

Whether he is rolling with his left hook or slipping into his right uppercut, Hunt works with an impressive economy of trunk movement since his style relies heavily on it. And though Hunt’s durability often aides his counter striking sensibilities, leaning on his chin has been an increasingly troublesome path for the 43-year-old as of late.

Nevertheless, Hunt should have a considerable edge standing, which leads me to believe that Blaydes will maintain his wrestling-heavy approach.

An NJCAA wrestling champion, Blaydes carries a wrestling style that translates well to MMA.

An aggressive grappler since his collegiate days, Blaydes has always appeared to have a relentlessness in his approach, whether he is re-wrestling for under-hooks or implementing his patented blast-double takedown. And though I could see him having success with the latter in that equation, grounding Hunt won’t be easy.

Utilizing his thick frame and stout stature, Hunt has been more and more difficult to take down as his career has progressed. Displaying solid defensive fundamentals, Hunt is quick on the draw with his underhooks and does well at dropping his hips to the floor to shut down shots in the open.

Given the sturdiness of the Hunt’s base, single-leg takedowns have been the traditional foil for the 14-year pro. Stipe Miocic and Brock Lesnar both found success in chaining off to single-leg variations against Hunt, something I suspect Blaydes will have to mimic in this matchup.

Against Daniel Omielanczuk, we saw Blaydes get caught playing another man’s game. Despite winning the fight, Blaydes failed on multiple takedown attempts due to his failure to adjust and was subsequently forced into fighting his opponent at his strengths.

If Blaydes has learned from that experience, then we could see his commitments rewarded by getting this fight to where he wants it: the floor.

A place where Hunt has a propensity to take damage, Blaydes could seriously sway this fight should he achieve ride positions and work his positional and striking flows. With that in mind, Blaydes will still need to show improvements to the control aspect of his game.

Blaydes’ aggression and rawness still leave positional openings that a veteran such as Hunt can use to hit his classic tripod getups. Unless Blaydes has made massive upgrades to his back-take or mount game, then he will likely have to play positions smartly and look to punish with strikes when he can.

The oddsmakers and public seem slightly favor the younger man to establish his terms, listing Blaydes -155 and Hunt +135 as of this writing.

Considering that Blaydes was my initial lean heading into this fight, I don’t disagree with those odds at all. I picked Blaydes to beat Francis Ngannou back in 2016 and have marked him as a heavyweight prospect since.

However, despite possessing the on-paper skills to trouble Hunt, I still feel this may be a little too much too soon for Blaydes. Even in fights where he is winning, Blaydes seems to have a propensity to find his way off the path, making questionable decisions along the way.

Should Blaydes exchange for longer than he needs to here, then I see Hunt taxing his sometimes stationary head movement harder than his past opponents have.

Although I’m excited about Blaydes’ future in the division, this may be another reminder for us to temper our opinions of pushing veterans out the front door. Few things are as unpredictable as heavyweight MMA, but I’ll side with Hunt to sway the momentum with his early lands, eventually finding his finish come the second round.

Official pick: Hunt inside the distance

For more on UFC 221, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.