Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes UFC Fight Night 222
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The winner of Saturday's's fight might eventually face Ciryl Gane for a vacant belt if Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic compete for the heavyweight championship before both retire.

15 of Pavlovich's's 18 career bouts and all of his UFC fights were over in less than five minutes. He has a five-fight winning streak and has appeared particularly terrifying in his previous three victories since coming back from maternity between October 2019 and March 2022.

Blaydes, meanwhile, starts a three-fight winning streak with victories in seven of his eight bouts, but he suffers three knockout losses in the UFC, two to Francis Ngannou and one to Derrick Lewis. Pavlovich calculates his chin to see.

The main event for UFC Fight Night, Blaydes vs. Pavlovich, which is entirely streamed on ESPN+( 4 p. m. ET), will be bet on using the analysis and projections I've've provided below.

Pavlovich has the five-round experience, winning a 25-minute decision to win the first Fight Nights Global heavyweight championship, despite the fact that this is his first major event at the UFC level. Additionally, he has a career average of 3- 0 on the scorecards.

However, Pavlovich hasn't demonstrated the disciplined style necessary to win prolonged minutes or maintain cardio in his UFC matches. In recent fights, Pavlovich has blitzed his opponents with a barrage of punches. He has quick hands, strikes hard, and his bursts are precise and technical.

Pavlovich spends at least five to seven minutes as Ivan Drago in an MMA cage.

However, Blaydes, who is likely the best wrestler in the heavyweight division, could have relatively simple takedown entries as a result of that pressure and recklessness. Unfortunately, Blaydes isn't always dependable when aiming for takedowns, particularly early on. He prefers to feel out his opponents' feet, kick them with his legs to weaken their base, and then continue grappling.

It could be a fatal strategic error if Blaydes tries to feel Pavlovich on the feet after falling in love with his hands, as he has in his previous fights. In order to neutralize Pavlovich's's boxing range, Blaydes must wrestle from the start, get this fight to the mat, or at the very least, up against the cage.

Although Pavlovich should have a significant speed and power advantage in the pocket and his four-inch reach advantage could be crucial as Blaydes dips to grab hold of his legs, he is an underrated offensive striker. Pavlovich isn't much of an offensive threat outside of his boxing, though. He is a pure boxer with boxing power, quick hands, and terrifyingly crisp combinations for someone his size. He doesn't fire off many kicks or creative strikes in the clinch.

Pavlovich's's most important question mark, especially for this fight, is defensive grappling. In his UFC debut, Alistair Overeem, a kickboxer, had the upper hand on the mat. and on his back appeared to be a complete fish:

Blaydes is just very skilled at taking down heavyweights and winning clinch positions; he isn't a particularly dangerous submission grappler, ground-and-pound specialist, or control artist. He also has more cardio than the vast majority of the division, allowing him to play the game for longer than 25 minutes while his opponents wilt.

Blaydes will undoubtedly be in danger at the start of each frame because all rounds begin on the feet, so if he can make it through the first seven minutes of the fight, I anticipate him to look like an increasingly important favorite as the battle goes on.

Additionally, one takedown might be sufficient for Blaydes to complete, just as it was for Overeem. Pavlovich has had plenty of time to get better, and Blaydes doesn't chase the finish line like other fighters, so I doubt that will be the case.

I would rate Blaydes' chin below average for the heavyweight division, and Pavlovich has the majority of the early finishing upside. Beyond that, though, Blaydes has the majority of the strategies for winning this fight in minutes or cardio. He is a legitimate favorite.

Pavlovich should achieve his greatest success as soon as possible, and he might even suffer a knockdown or convincingly win the opening round. If Blaydes moves closer to a pick'em price or adds money after the first round or two, I think you'll'll be able to buy him for more money live after Round 1 than you could before the fight.

After consistently landing mat returns, I anticipate Blaydes to take over a minute-winning position with his wrestling significantly down the stretch.

Pavlovich will finally face his worst matchup in the heavyweight division: a tenacious wrestler, after facing an onslaught of opponents willing to trade with him, all of whom he knocked out.

The only uncertainty is whether Blaydes will start out with his best game strategy.