Michael Bisping has been on the verge of great things for more than a decade. His UFC tenure, beginning with a triumphant 2006 star turn during the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, has spanned generations, surviving the rise and fall of Brock Lesnar, Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre. Through it all, Bisping has remained a constant, always seemingly inches away from grasping the brass ring, only to consistently fall just short of it.
On Saturday at UFC 199, at the age of 37, Bisping finally won the big one.
Long after astute observers had written him off, following years of being the biggest name to never fight for UFC gold, the British superstar clocked middleweight champion Luke Rockhold with a solid left hand, then did it again, completing one of the most improbable career resurgences the sport has ever seen.
How did he do it? How did a challenger, on just 17 days notice, overcome some of the longest odds in UFC history? Senior writers Jonathan Snowden and Patrick Wyman take a look, minute by minute, at the upset that shocked the world.
Prelude
Jonathan Snowden: Some people believe in the power of science, of demonstrable fact, of analytics. I believe in the power of story. And this fight had the makings of a great one.
After 18 wins and 25 fights inside the UFC Octagon, Michael Bisping finally got his shot at the championship of the world. As a storyteller, I recognized immediately how powerful this narrative was, how right it would feel for the legendary veteran to overcome the odds and pull off the impossible victory.
Patrick Wyman: It's hard to overstate the power of Bisping's narrative heading into this fight. He only got the title shot because Chris Weidman, whom Rockhold had just pounded into submission to win the title, was forced to pull out with a neck injury. Jacare Souza, the only other likely candidate for the fight, had just suffered a knee injury.
There's a word for that, and it's destiny.
Snowden: Of course, not every heart-warming story plays out the way we want them too. And, in Rockhold, Bisping's conquering hero faced one heck of an end boss—one who seemingly reveled in the idea of squelching his dreams.
"Bisping thinks this is going to be his fairy tale," Rockhold told the audience watching on pay-per-view. "I will have none of that. This will be his swan song. I'm going to prove there's no such thing as destiny."
Wyman: There was absolutely no reason, based on what we'd seen in the cage, to feel good about Bisping's chances here. The best anyone could point to was the fact that Bisping had been somewhat competitive in the first round of their initial meeting, in November 2014. Of course, Rockhold snuffed him with a head kick and a one-arm guillotine choke in the second round, and even the blindest optimist couldn't ignore that fact.
Rockhold is an incredible grappler with a wicked front headlock and the exceptional counter-wrestling skills born of years sparring with Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez. On the feet, the rangy southpaw has vicious power in everything he throws, especially his variety of left kicks and counter right hook.
Snowden: As the two entered the cage, Rockhold maintained a carefully nonchalant pose, his sleepy dismissal of Bisping palpable, his place in the pecking order beyond question. And it was an earned confidence. His size and smooth athleticism was unlike anything we'd ever seen from a middleweight, even the great Anderson Silva. Bisping's dream come true had the very real possibility of turning into a nightmare.
Wyman: Rockhold's biggest advantage over Bisping was in sheer physicality - strength, power and especially speed. Weidman is a good athlete by any reasonable standard; Rockhold put him to shame, and the 37-year-old Bisping is a full tier below Weidman in terms of physical gifts.
Even without the outcome of their first fight in mind, it was difficult to see a path to victory for Bisping.
And yet Bisping managed to find one. Let's take a look at the fight, minute by minute, and figure out how Bisping pulled it off.
5:00-4:00
Wyman: Rockhold opens the fight with a smile on his face, and lets Bisping toss a few half-hearted feints and strikes while he gauges the distance and timing. Bisping subtly tries to pressure, but Rockhold backs him off with jabs, a right front kick to the body and a pair of low kicks. Meanwhile, Bisping falls short on everything, struggling to reach the taller, longer fighter with straight right hands.
Snowden: Rockhold's smile disappeared pretty quickly when Bisping tossed off a kick to his knee in the opening seconds. But, other than that, there wasn't much for either man to grin about as they felt each other out.
It's not always obvious outside the cage, but Rockhold is an absolute gargantuan. Bisping, who once pushed former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans to the limit, is not just the smaller man—he looks almost lilliputian in comparison.
Wyman: There were a few notable things here. First, Bisping noted that Rockhold was slipping the straight right the same way every time. Second, Rockhold's jabs - never a major part of his game before - carried real heat, but he also had a tendency to throw his weight forward, leaving him at a bad angle to Bisping after throwing the strike.
Still, if you were looking for reasons to feel good about Bisping's chances in this fight, the first minute wasn't promising.
Snowden: Bisping's challenge here is evident from the beginning. Rockhold is genetic perfection, all tight abs, rangy musculature and perfect California tan. Bisping, pale white with a pudge around his middle appropriate for a man staring 40 in the face. looks ill suited to compete with such a glorious specimen.
But, then, looks can be deceiving.
4:00- 3:00
Snowden: In the first 15 seconds of the second stanza, Bisping lands the first real blow of the fight, a straight right hand. Rockhold responds with a series of kicks that back the challenger up.
Wyman: This is where business starts to pick up. Bisping's straight right at the 3:55 mark was a beautiful shot; Rockhold slipped to his left, precisely the way he had in the opening minute, but Bisping placed the shot where Rockhold's head would be rather than where it started.
Rockhold responded by going on the attack. He laced a vicious right kick to Bisping's body, and then backed him off with a crushing left high kick whose impact on Bisping's arms was audible in the arena. Again, though, Bisping landed the straight right, throwing it where Rockhold's head would be after the slip.
Snowden: "He has some serious power, particularly in that left kick," announcer Joe Rogan says, as Bisping proceeds to stomp at Rockhold's right knee. The strategy here is sound. If Rockhold can't plant on his right leg with any confidence, the aforementioned hard left is an impossibility.
That little kick, quintessential Bisping trolling, gets Rockhold's attention in earnest and he responds with a stinging left hand. Bisping is on the defensive, already looking like a desperate man batting his arms against an oncoming storm.
Wyman: The first real exchange of the fight took place at the 3:15 mark. Bisping stepped in with a left hook, which Rockhold tried to counter with his trademark counter right hook. Instead of letting him off the hook, though, Rockhold pursued with a glancing straight left.
Snowden: It would have been easy for Bisping to remain on his bicycle here, simply doing his best to avoid Rockhold until he could once again initiate his offense. Five years ago, it's likely he'd have done exactly that. Instead, as Rockhold came forward, Bisping made the calculated choice to stand his ground. If he was going down, it would be swinging.
Wyman: Right here is where things got interesting. Instead of backing off in the face of Rockhold's assault, Bisping planted his feet and threw back, missing with a left hook and straight right before landing a flush left hook on Rockhold's jaw. Keep this in mind, because it's the same shot that will eventually put Rockhold down.
Rockhold always starts a bit slow, tapping away at range and countering before committing to his own pressuring offense. That's precisely the shift we saw here, but it happened much earlier than it usually does for Rockhold. Perhaps that was a sign of the overconfidence that led him to think he could eat Bisping's shots in the pocket with impunity.
3:00-2:00
Wyman: Rockhold slams home a sharp body kick, and Bisping replies with that side kick to Rockhold's lead leg and then a body kick of his own. You can tell Rockhold's starting to feel more comfortable in the pocket; he counters a lead left hook from Bisping with a stepping knee.
Snowden: Rockhold's confidence is intoxicating. Because he had already beaten Bisping easily and taken his measure in the early going of this fight, his sense of invulnerability and superiority is all but written on his face.
Wyman: The range here suits Rockhold better. He's backing Bisping off with round kicks and front kicks before throwing punches in the pocket, and Bisping's jab and straight right replies are coming up short.
Snowden: There's no reason to suspect an upset is brewing at this point. Rockhold is not just initiating every exchange, he's winning them with crisper strikes. Everything Bisping throws with purpose seems to be falling just short.
But, on commentary, Rogan notes an issue that would have dire consequences.
"Rockhold," he says, "has his chin straight up in the air."
Wyman: Rockhold closes the minute, his best of the fight, with a trio of vicious round kicks. First he goes to the leg, then the head and finally the body before planting a flush right hook on Bisping's temple. This is vintage Rockhold: use the kicks to set the range, and then blast the shorter fighter with power punches as he tries to cover the distance.
That last exchange, however, showcased a problem for Rockhold: He left himself off balance and with his back partially turned to Bisping after he threw the right hook, and while Bisping's straight right counter missed, the issue was still present.
2:00-1:00
Snowden: The final minute (spoiler alert) of the fight begins with a Rockhold kick to the body. "Michael might be hurt," Rogan exclaims, though there is no sign that's true. Instead, the Brit comes forward with a thudding leg kick to Rockhold's thigh.
Wyman: Not much happens in the first 20 seconds or so of this section. It appears that Rockhold has managed to set his preferred longer range, driving home a front kick to the body and a jab, but it's a lot of swinging and missing.
Snowden: Rockhold, nonchalant as ever, continues pressing Bisping back towards the fence. He lands a glancing, lunging right jab, but Bisping is unfazed. It manages, however, to throw the champion off balance, back to Bisping who is in perfect position to respond.
As Rockhold desperately attempts to recover his footing the unthinkable happens. After landing a right hand to the solar plexus, Bisping, he of the alleged pillow fists, thunks a clean left hook right off Rockhold's head. With 1:30 seconds remaining in the very first round, the champion is on the deck and in very real trouble.
The crowd erupts as Rockhold pops immediately to his feet, only to be sent reeling a second time with yet another left. Three uncontested punches to the jaw later and it's all over but the shouting.
Wyman: This exchange was the culmination of everything Rockhold had done wrong - which, to be fair, wasn't much - and Bisping had done right through the first 3:28 of the fight. Rockhold had left himself off balance after throwing punches with his lead hand on several occasions, while Bisping had shown his willingness to hang in the pocket and counter with the straight right-left hook combination.
That's precisely what happened here. Rockhold over-committed, nearly turning his back while pulling his head far off to the left. Bisping missed with the straight right, but the follow-up left hook landed cleanly. To his credit, Rockhold recovered, but another left hook put him down. A few more punches followed and it was all over.
Closing Thoughts
Snowden: "Michael Bisping is the new middleweight champion of the world," Goldberg screams as referee John McCarthy pulls the new middleweight kingpin off of his rival.
"Oh my goodness. Oh my goodness That's why this is a crazy sport ladies and gentlemen," Rogan replies. "Because anything can happen at any given moment. At any given moment you can be sitting at home watching this and just go 'Holy s--t."
Wyman: This is why we watch and love MMA. The unexpected, the unpredictable, the shocking can happen at any moment, defying our rational expectations and leading to incredible moments.
It's not like Rockhold screwed things up. He over-committed for a series of brief moments, and Bisping had both the skills and the luck - yes, luck - necessary to put himself in position to land the perfect shot.
Bisping had been training for this moment his whole career, and when it counted, he was able to accomplish the unthinkable.
Jonathan Snowden and Patrick Wyman cover combat sports for Bleacher Report.
