Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen UFC on ESPN Vera vs. Sandhagen Free Replay Part I
Watch UFC on ESPN 43 San Antonio Texas Full Fight Stream

On Saturday, the UFC will be at AT& T Center in San Antonio for an 11-fight card with a bantamweight matchup between No. Marlon "Chito" Vera, a third-place finisher, and No. 5 Cory Sandhagen

After scoring wins and performance bonuses against Rob Font and Dominick Cruz last year, Vera enters on a four-fight winning streak and will take part in his third straight main event.

With just 1- 2 in his previous three fights, Sandhagen enters his fourth straight main event. Nevertheless, both defeats were close calls against Petr Yan and T. J. Dillashaw, former champions.

The main event for UFC San Antonio, Vera vs. Sandhagen, which airs exclusively on ESPN( 4:30 p. m. ET) with a simulcast stream of ESPN+, will be bet on using the analysis and projections I've provided below.

The main event at UFC San Antonio on Saturday should be a fast-paced battle between two talented strikers.

In addition to being taller, Sandhagen is also likely the best wrestler and the more effective striker( 1.94 to- 0.73 significant strike differential per minute). And in the first round, Vera typically moves slowly to read his opponent and assess his timing.

As a result, Vera frequently finds himself in shambles and must either recover to win three of the last four rounds in order to prevail, or he must finish his opponent while pacing similarly to Petr Yan.

Vera frequently trails on loud volume when facing off against rivals. However, he frequently sustains damage well and hits the shots that have the greatest impact, forcing judges to compare Vera's memorable moments to his rivals' overall minute-winning and output.

Chito's five-round decision over Rob Font serves as a prime example. Vera trailed 273 to 167 on total strikes after 25 minutes but won unanimously( and four out of five rounds on two scorecards) due to an obvious disparity in damage and power.

Vera took Font's 199 head hits, but after the fight, his face was spotless. He has incredible damage absorption, which gives the judges excellent optics.

Sandhagen should attempt nearly 100 more strikes( roughly 350 to 265) than Vera based on career averages over 25 minutes. However, it might not matter if Vera twice wobbles Sandhagen and has the two most important fight moments.

Vera is likely to consistently fade for bettors who base their wagers solely on metrics or use fight stats as a model for fights. In all facets of my handicapping, I make an effort to combine math and scouting, and I appreciate Vera's approach.

In particular, I don't think Sandhagen will be able to handle Vera's pressure well. It's possible that Salzburg is setting the tone and leading the dance early on. However, as the fight progresses and Vera eventually opens up, I anticipate that she will eventually take on the role of the pressuring fighter, with Sandhagen working off the back foot.

Even in a fast-paced situation, both men are incredibly resilient and likely to withstand the damage the other causes. The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a submission from Vera. On the mat, Sandhagen is a slick finisher, and his submission defense is weak. Vera takes the back against a wobbly Sandhagen in this club and sub, which is also live.

Additionally, I anticipate Vera to have better cardio during the championship rounds. Vera has always appeared to be built for five-round battles because his propensity to begin slowly can hurt him in three-ringers. In his previous two victories, he demonstrated that the five-round assumption was accurate by picking up the pace as his fights went on and appearing to be a world-beater in the fourth and fifth rounds.

In contrast, Sandhagen had his best moments in each of his previous three fights( all five-rounders), and I believed that Song Yadong's victory before the cut stoppage was going against him.

The fight on Saturday should be competitive and close throughout, making it challenging for the judges to determine the round winners. Any decision should be razor-thin on the margins, but according to the betting market, if the fight goes all the way, Sandhagen has a much better chance of winning.

Given Vera's propensity for winning in the first round, Sandhagen should take the lead early, which presents a fantastic live betting opportunity on the underdog, whose price should peak after Round 1 before he fully applies the gas pedal.