In retrospect, it's impossible not to see Yair Rodriguez’s second-round TKO over BJ Penn for exactly what it was—a showcase fight for a top prospect against an overmatched veteran in deep decline.
This shouldn't come as breaking news to anyone. Still, given Penn's legendary status, more than a few people had talked themselves into believing he had a chance against Rodriguez leading up to Sunday's main event at UFC Fight Night 103.
After watching El Pantera thrash Penn en route to a TKO stoppage just 24 excruciating seconds into the second round, we now know better.
This was a setup, plain and simple.
Despite the fact Penn and many of his supporters were convinced he could win, the point of this matchup was to put Rodriguez on the map. UFC matchmakers were savvy enough to know what was coming. Using an old lion to prop up a newer, shiner version of himself isn’t exactly a revolutionary promotional strategy, after all.
It's just a different way of doing things than we’re used to seeing from the UFC.
In fact, this fight's closest recent analogue might be Conor McGregor's January 2015 clash with Dennis Siver.
Remember that? When the UFC slotted its up-and-coming Irish phenom against the 35-year-old Siver in a Sunday night main event on Fox Sports 1 and timed it just right to get McGregor in the cage as the NFL’s conference championship games concluded on network TV?
It was McGregor’s first time headlining a UFC event in America—in Boston, of all places—and the organization’s Sunday night gambit paid off by averaging 2.75 million viewers. At the time, it was the UFC’s highest-rated cable TV broadcast since 2009, according to Bloody Elbow’s Mookie Alexander.
Granted, Rodriguez doesn’t match McGregor in sheer star power—honestly, who does?—and he hasn’t had the promotional red carpet rolled out for him quite the same way.
Prior to the Siver bout, McGregor had benefited from a significant marketing push during the Fox Network’s NFL playoff games. Some of those advertisements even referred to him as the "Irish Muhammad Ali," per Alexander.
Still, there are obvious parallels, right down to the matchmaking, the day of the week and the freaky fact McGregor stopped Siver via TKO fairly early in the second round.
Promotionally speaking, it’s as if UFC brass looked at the trick it had pulled off with McGregor during that mid-January FS1 event two years ago and tried to do the same for Rodriguez on a smaller scale to begin 2017.
Penn came into this fight at 38 years old, two years removed from his most recent competition and riding a 1-5-1 record since April 2010. The former lightweight and welterweight champion had already retired at least once before and was a bit more than a 3-1 underdog here, according to OddsShark.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez stacked up as Penn’s polar opposite. He was 24, the owner of seven straight wins in the featherweight division and enjoying an emerging profile as one of the fight company’s next young stars.
What exactly did we think was going to happen by putting those two together?
Rodriguez exits this bout smelling even more like a rose than before, as his performance drew praise from numerous circles:
Yair Rodriguez threw 38 strikes in the second round of his fight against B.J. Penn. That round lasted 24 seconds.
— Trent Reinsmith (@TrentReinsmith) January 16, 2017
The new era! @panteraufc
— Paige VanZant (@PaigeVanzantUFC) January 16, 2017
So apparently they let video game characters fight in UFC now. Yair Rodriguez. #ufcphoenix That was intense.
— Hannibal Buress (@hannibalburess) January 16, 2017
Now it only remains to be seen if the UFC continues to follow the McGregor playbook as it attempts to build the native of Parral, Chihuahua, Mexico into a significant drawing card.
It’s clear Rodriguez could blossom into an important cog in the fight company's promotional machine. The UFC has been trying to break into the lucrative Mexican fight market for some time now. At present, Rodriguez shapes up as the most likely candidate for superstar status south of the border.
It doesn’t take a genius to see everyone involved could make a lot of money if Rodriguez can successfully create a fanbase in Mexico akin to the strident, occasionally downright bloodthirsty one McGregor has cultivated in Ireland.
Rodriguez possesses all the necessary tools. He has an exciting strike-first fighting style and a rags-to-riches backstory. He’s also bilingual, having worked hard to develop his English since winning the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America in November 2014.
However, there are also parts of Rodriguez's game that make you wonder if—like McGregor—he'll need a few of his future matchups carefully managed as he comes into his own as a bona fide headliner.
His fight against Penn went off without a hitch, but a previous pairing against middling contender Alex Caceres was more of a nail-biter. Rodriguez ended up winning by split decision, but Caceres did a much better job of handling his unorthodox style than Penn did.
Rodriguez's flashy kicking game is one of the primary drivers of his success and marketability. It’s unique enough to be difficult for opponents to prepare for and can be devastating if he gets it firing early in fights.
Caceres, though, matched Rodriguez's athleticism and mobility and did a decent job of evading and stifling the kicking game. Faced with that sort of fight, Rodriguez had a more difficult time.
Though he remains undefeated in the Octagon, it makes you wonder how Rodriguez would fare if he’s prematurely forced into the upper echelon of the 145-pound rankings.
Against a shrewd, high-level striker like interim champion Max Holloway or champ Jose Aldo, a hard-nosed grappler like Ricardo Lamas (No. 3 in the UFC 145-pound rankings) or an all-around tactician such as Frankie Edgar (No. 2), it's reasonable to think Rodriguez might struggle.
He's still young in the game and still getting better. If the UFC regards him as the blue-chip prospect we think it does, there's no need to rush things. It might be understandable, reasonable even, to give him a handful of winnable matchups as he continues to climb the ladder.
This might fly in the face of the competition-based matchmaking system the UFC has traditionally made the backbone of its business. It smacks of something that is more common in boxing, where managers often keep hot up-and-comers away from grueling competition as they build their resumes.
Then again, as the UFC forges into a new era under owners at WME-IMG, perhaps its old playbook is already obsolete. If the organization aims to become more profit-minded, it makes good sense to cultivate a star like Rodriguez rather than undercut his momentum with too stiff a test too early.
Case in point: That different approach seemed to work wonders for McGregor.
Earlier in the current lightweight champion's UFC career, he faced many of the same questions that now dog Rodriguez. We didn't yet know how McGregor's distinctive open stance and southpaw slugging style would fare against top competition.
Looking back, it's plain to see McGregor's first handful of opponents in the Octagon—Marcus Brimage, a green Holloway, Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier and Siver—all offered styles he matched up well against.
The first time he fought an accomplished wrestler was against Chad Mendes at UFC 189 in July 2015, when Mendes came in on just two weeks' notice. Additionally, Mendes was a last-minute replacement for Aldo in that bout, so the UFC had effectively built McGregor into a championship contender before he faced a grappler at all.
Fast-forward 18 months and four fights and McGregor has proved himself against the best the UFC has to offer. It’s possible, however, that he benefited from a few carefully curated matches early in his UFC run.
It allowed McGregor to evolve into the championship-caliber fighter and promotional juggernaut he is today. Would he have gotten there if he had fought less advantageous style matchups from the beginning?
Maybe. Maybe not.
The point is, there was no reason to find out.
For Rodriguez, the same is likely true.
That means giving him a series of matchups against measuring sticks like Charles Oliveira and Jeremy Stephens in the short term. It means keeping him away from other up-and-coming stars like Dooho Choi and Mirsad Bektic, an unsung grinder like Darren Elkins or a dangerous, cagey veteran like Cub Swanson until UFC brass are sure he’s ready.
That would at least put one of the company's brightest potential stars in a position to succeed.
How high Rodriguez ultimately flies would naturally be up to him.
