Inside the MMA bubble, UFC 205 was a breakout moment for Khabib Nurmagomedov.
A savage victory over Michael Johnson during Saturday's preliminaries reaffirmed the 28-year-old Russian grappler as a darling among hardcore fans.
Since defeating Rafael Dos Anjos in April 2014, Nurmagomedov has been considered a potential future lightweight champion. With apologies to Tony Ferguson and his nine-fight win streak, Nurmagomedov’s third-round round submission over Johnson once again made him the trendy pick as No. 1 contender at 155 pounds:
Don't get me wrong, Tony Ferg is the man, but Conor/Khabib is the more intriguing fight IMO. Two absolute beasts in their realm of fighting.
— caposa (@GrabakaHitman) November 14, 2016
Unfortunately, we all know No. 1 contender status isn’t what it used to be.
So long as Conor McGregor reigns at lightweight, he’ll call his own shots—and smart money says McGregor is never going to fight Nurmagomedov.
Why not?
Nurmagomedov remains the worst kind of double-whammy for McGregor, representing perhaps the most difficult stylistic matchup of his career while offering one of the lowest financial returns.
When taking applications for future opponents, McGregor doesn’t care about wins and losses or the UFC’s official rankings. He only cares about adding more zeros to his personal bank account and—to a lesser extent—cementing his legacy.
Despite his show-stopping win over Johnson, Nurmagomedov is still little more than a super tough guy virtually unknown among casual fans. That means he strikes out on both columns.
Could be he knows it too.
In recent days, the native of Makhachkala, Russia, has shown signs of understanding he can’t fight his way into a shot at McGregor. Perhaps as a result, he’s been doing everything he can to talk his way into one too.
In the aftermath of his win over Johnson, Nurmagomedov used his in-cage interview with UFC color commentator Joe Rogan to address the partisan crowd at Madison Square Garden—many of whom were waving tricolor flags to support their Irish hero.
"Your guy, at the beginning of the year, he tapped like a chicken," Nurmagomedov said, referencing McGregor’s UFC 196 loss to Nate Diaz. “End of the year, he fights for the title? Crazy ... I want to fight your chicken. This is the No. 1 easy fight in the lightweight division."
It was a shrewd call-out, showcasing his unique brand of ice-cold, deadpan trash talk. It also escalated a war of words that has been building between McGregor and Nurmagomedov.
Earlier in the week at the UFC 205 weigh-ins, security had to briefly intervene during a backstage altercation between the two:
Despite the tough talk on both sides, however, McGregor has been quick to distance himself from a potential fight with Nurmagomedov. During his own time at last weekend’s post-fight press conference, he seized on Nurmagomedov’s penchant for injury as a reason to disqualify him from consideration.
"He’s fought once in eight years...," McGregor joked, via Bloody Elbow's Nick Baldwin. "He’s a consistent pull-out merchant. I need to see activity. I need to see consistency. I need to see [someone like] me. If you want me to come and change your life, if you want me to come pick you, you better have some damn reasons for me to do that."
Meanwhile, on this week’s episode of The MMA Hour with Ariel Helwani, McGregor coach John Kavanagh made it clear they’ve got other targets in mind. He discounted both Nurmagomedov and Ferguson in favor of a trilogy fight against Diaz.
"I think Nate would beat either Tony or Khabib," Kavanagh said via MMA Fighting.com’s Mark Raimondi. "I think he really turned the corner with the Michael Johnson fight [in December 2015]. I think we saw a new version of him. And then he looked fantastic in both Conor fights."
This week, Odds Shark’s Justin Hartling went a step further, setting an actual betting line on who might be McGregor’s next opponent and making Nurmagomedov the biggest long shot in the lightweight division. Only a return to featherweight to take on Jose Aldo was deemed a less likely move for the newly minted dual-division champ:
Odds for who McGregor fights next:
— Justin Hartling (@justinhartling) November 16, 2016
Nate Diaz +175
Woodley +300
Khabib +400
Aldo +500
Full list here --> https://t.co/PPcC5RbZcl pic.twitter.com/nDFbO7BvWQ
McGregor’s ruthless pragmatism is understandable. This is a man with pretty big things on his plate right now.
After easily wresting the 155-pound title from Eddie Alvarez in UFC 205’s main event, McGregor announced he’ll take a leave of absence from MMA to begin the New Year. He and longtime girlfriend Dee Devlin are expecting their first child in May 2017, and McGregor indicated he wants some quiet time, free from the media circus he’s created around himself.
At the same time, he threw down an unprecedented gauntlet for future contract negotiations, saying if and when he does return to the UFC, he’ll want an ownership stake in the organization.
Whether or not UFC brass caves on that last stipulation, there will be tens of millions of dollars on the line for McGregor in his next fight. From his point of view, it’s frankly easy to justify the opinion that fighting Nurmagomedov offers him little besides a chance to screw up the big business he’s got cooking in and out of the Octagon.
Nurmagomedov’s hard-nosed grappling style would test McGregor in ways we’ve never seen before. His ability to control his opponents on the ground while dishing out fearsome punishment is perhaps unmatched in the history of the lightweight class.
That doesn’t mean Nurmagomedov would definitely beat McGregor, of course. The challenger would be significantly outgunned on the feet, and his tendency to get reckless and open himself up to punches would give McGregor good chances to land his left-handed power shots.
McGregor has been way too good during his own 9-1 run through the UFC to count him out of any matchup.
But fighting Nurmagomedov would definitely be risky.
McGregor’s not likely to do that when there are other, better, arguably easier options on the table.
