Maybe Rafael dos Anjos never really had a chance to land a fight with Conor McGregor, but it’s a good bet Saturday night's performance didn’t help his cause.
Dos Anjos’ first-round knockout of Donald Cerrone in the main event of UFC on Fox 17 was certainly eye-opening. It may turn out to be the defining victory of his lightweight title reign and firmly establish him as a worthy kingpin for MMA’s most competitive division.
But it also made Dos Anjos (14-5 UFC, 25-7 overall) look like perhaps the toughest fight on the board for McGregor right now. As the man who also offers the lowest possible return, the math probably just won't add up for him.
With McGregor's superstar status now well entrenched, the new featherweight champion will be on the prowl for big names and big money when he selects his next fight.
A high-risk, low reward bout against Dos Anjos? After watching him tear through Cerrone, that seems more imprudent than ever. The numbers—and the strategy—will likely dictate that McGregor (7-0, 19-2) sticks with higher-profile and arguably less dangerous guys like Frankie Edgar or Nate Diaz.
That didn’t stop the 31-year-old Brazilian from trying to cash in on the McGregor sweepstakes, naturally. Just like almost every other fighter under 170 pounds who got a win at UFC on Fox 17, Dos Anjos had a message for The Notorious One.
"Conor McGregor,” Dos Anjos said during his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan inside the cage, “if you want to come to the lightweight division, know that this is my division. You should stay at featherweight. I will fight you in Brazil. I will go to Ireland to face you. I'm here to stay.”
Considering how relatively quiet Dos Anjos had been since winning the UFC title in March, it was a pretty significant outburst. In the wake of it, McGregor made it clear he’s reveling in his new status as the UFC’s most wanted man:
Line them up on their knees with their hands out. I want them to beg me. pic.twitter.com/YCYf0QslNR
— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) December 20, 2015
McGregor coach John Kavanagh also appeared pleased with the options presented to his fighter after the UFC’s latest live fight card on network television:
— Coach Kavanagh (@John_Kavanagh) December 20, 2015
But it was probably wishful thinking for Dos Anjos to believe he could ever tempt McGregor.
Edgar (14-4-1, 20-4-1) continues to campaign for that fight at 145 pounds. Following a win over Michael Johnson this weekend, Diaz (13-8, 18-10) launched into a profane rant designed to bait McGregor into a bout at lightweight. Had Cerrone pulled off the victory, he was considered a slam dunk to land the UFC equivalent of a lottery ticket.
For what it’s worth, Diaz told MMAFighting.com’s Ariel Helwani after the post-fight press conference that matchmaker Joe Silva informed him the McGregor fight is “on.”
So, we’ll see what develops.
By contrast, though, Dos Anjos was always considered a dark-horse candidate. Considering the lightweight champ now looks more dangerous than ever, conventional wisdom says McGregor won’t want to risk putting his enormous political capital within the UFC on the line for such a risky bout. Instead, he’ll likely chase bigger paydays and the bigger headlines.
Dos Anjos came into this fight a bit more than a 2-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark. Still, most of the pre-fight hype swirled around Cerrone (15-4, 28-7-1)—a popular fighter who was finally getting his chance at the gold after five years and 18 fights in the UFC.
The Cowboy was considered a perfect fit for McGregor. The two bombastic figures could have made beautiful promotional music together leading up to a mega card in Ireland’s enormous Croke Park early in 2016 or even at UFC 200, which is planned for next July and expected to be the biggest event the fight company has ever put on.
But then Dos Anjos slammed the door on Cerrone’s bid.
The champion landed a straight left during the opening moments of the fight that snapped Cerrone’s head back and set the tone for the next minute, six seconds. When that first punch landed, it was as if you could hear UFC fans all over the country shifting nervously in their seats and saying “uh-oh.”
A notoriously slow starter, Cerrone never really got things going. Roughly 30 seconds after the opening exchange, Dos Anjos landed the left body kick that signaled the beginning of the end for the likable Colorado native. The champion followed it up with a crushing straight left and poured on the punches as Cerrone covered up against the fence.
Moments later, the challenger was turtled up in the center of the cage, accepting so many shots that Dos Anjos had to look at referee Herb Dean to ask him if he might consider stopping the fight. Dean eventually obliged him.
"I didn’t show up to work," Cerrone said later, in the UFC's official post-fight press release. "Couldn’t find my gear. He showed up, and I didn’t. He did a good job.”
So good, in fact, that it might make the people in charge of selecting McGregor’s next fight think twice—unless, of course, winning the lightweight title is truly tops on his list of priorities.
More likely, we now see McGregor meet either Diaz or Edgar. His camp said last week he was considering a lightweight title fight in April and then Edgar in July. It remains to be seen if this weekend’s action was enough for him to reorder his list of objectives.
For Dos Anjos, perhaps the most likely next foe is Tony Ferguson (10-1, 20-3). He scored an impressive and crowd-pleasing victory over Edson Barboza last week at The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 Finale. It extended his seven-fight win streak and could put Ferguson in the catbird seat as the 155-pound division awaits the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov beat Dos Anjos via unanimous decision in April 2014 and remains undefeated at a stunning 22-0 (6-0 UFC). He hasn’t fought since the Dos Anjos win, owing to a laundry list of injuries, but he’ll remain near the front of the contender line if and when he makes it back to action.
Former UFC champion Anthony Pettis (5-2, 18-3) and former Bellator titlist Eddie Alvarez (1-1, 26-4) are also scheduled to meet on January 17. The winner of that bout will have a good chance to be next up for Dos Anjos.
Assuming, of course, it’s not McGregor. The Irishman will continue to call his own shots so long as he remains the UFC’s biggest draw. And right now it seems like he’d have too much to lose to put himself in a fight against Dos Anjos.
Even if the lightweight title was on the line.
