No matter what happens when Benson Henderson takes on Brandon Thatch in the main event of UFC Fight Night 60 on Saturday, we’re probably going to need an asterisk or two.
Henderson vs. Thatch isn’t a fight that figures into anyone’s long-term plans, nor one we even could’ve anticipated as recently as a month ago. Make no mistake, there are clear stakes here for each guy, as Bendo moves up from lightweight to make a short-notice appearance at 170 pounds.
It’s just that putting it all in perspective will likely take some footnotes.
Obviously, this wasn’t the original blueprint. When UFC brass first marked it up on the whiteboard at Zuffa LLC headquarters, a stunningly relevant 170-pound contender bout between Matt Brown and Tarec Saffiedine* was meant to headline the Valentine's Day spectacular in Broomfield, Colorado.
(*Asterisk No. 1: Neither of those guys are to be found now, of course. A groin injury knocked Saffiedine out of the running in January. With him gone, Brown wisely decided to risk taking a shorter cut to the top, in a fight against former champion Johny Hendricks at next month’s UFC 185.)
Option B was to line Thatch up with the 32-year-old “Wonderboy” Stephen Thompson*, a guy who sports a 5-1 record through three years in the UFC but still hasn’t made much of an impact.
(*Asterisk No. 2: Thompson made it all of 16 days before a rib injury forced his removal.)
Luckily, all this chaos dovetailed nicely with Henderson’s newfound desperation.
For the first time in his career the former lightweight champion finds himself on the heels of back-to-back losses, after a questionable judges’ decision to Donald Cerrone last month. If you know anything about Henderson—besides the ponytail, the toothpick and the penchant for close fights—it’s easy to assume he’s not taking that lightly.
So, he swooped in, graciously granting Fight Night 60 a main event that—if you step back and squint—is in most ways much improved from the notion of Thatch-Thompson.
Either way it goes, Henderson says the move to welterweight won’t last long*.
“It’s definitely not permanent moving up to 170,” he told AXS TV’s Inside MMA last week. “It was more of a one-time thing. I’ve asked to move to 170. I’ve asked for the short notice fights. I’m not going to back down now. Let’s do it. Sign me up.”
(*Asterisk No. 3: Sure, maybe he goes back to 155. Unless he wins, though, right?)
Henderson is a big lightweight who has always hinted at a possible welterweight run. Back when he was champion, his camp made some ill-fated feints at the idea of a superfight with Georges St-Pierre, until the groans from the peanut gallery drowned out the conversation.
So, if he were to defeat Thatch*, the comfy confines of the welterweight arena—with its fresh matchups and less demanding weight cut—could suddenly start to look more appealing to Henderson.
(*Asterisk No. 4: Which, let’s face it, is totally possible.)
We already know he’s mostly played out the string at lightweight. With two previous losses to current champion Anthony Pettis, he’s just spinning his wheels waiting for some enterprising No. 1 contender to come along and reset the clock.
When you think about it that way, new life at welterweight could be just the ticket.
Meanwhile, a defeat at the hands of Thatch*—while obviously not preferable—wouldn’t be the end of the world.
(*Asterisk No. 5: Thatch is currently going off as a slight favorite, according to Odds Shark.)
We’re still very much in the process of figuring out exactly how good the 29-year-old muay thai specialist can be, but early signs point to, you know, pretty good. If Henderson loses to the larger, younger man, he’ll shuffle back to 155 pounds with a trio of losses but without a ton of extra damage to his already hobbled UFC standing*.
(*Asterisk No. 6: Small victories, eh?)
For Thatch, the lines of demarcation are drawn a bit more definitively. His current streak of 10 consecutive first-round stoppage victories is one of the more under-the-radar stats in the Octagon right now. That run includes his first two bouts in the UFC and has garnered him some next-big-thing hype.
"Guaranteed world champion," coach Trevor Wittman told MMAFighting.com’s Chuck Mindenhall after Thatch dispatched Paulo Thiago in Nov. 2013. "No doubt in my mind. World champion. He’s just so talented."
But Thatch has had hard time holding a spot in our minds. He tore his labrum in the Thiago* fight and has been out 15 months rehabbing.
(*Asterisk No. 7: He was briefly linked to a bout with Jordan Mein last August but had to pull out of that booking with a toe injury.)
This weekend represents Thatch's chance to not only re-enter the Octagon, but to re-emerge on the crowded UFC stage. Henderson shapes up as his best-known and most dangerous opponent to date, even if he is from a lower weight class.
If Thatch can beat him, he’ll be able to truthfully shout from the rooftops that he’s taken out a former UFC champion* and is ready for bigger challenges.
(*Asterisk No. 8: You’ll have to look pretty closely to see the fine print: Lightweight champion).
Thatch seems to know that, effectively telling Fox Sports’ Damon Martin that he hopes his performance can rekindle his status as a hot prospect after so much time away.
"I need this fight to be an exclamation point*," Thatch said. "Time off is the worst thing that you can have as an athlete and I don't see myself having any more. I'm manifesting a healthy 2015 and I'll stay as healthy and as active as I can this year."
(*Asterisk No. 9: An exclamation point is a punctuation mark used to indicate an exclamation, in this case an emphatic statement. Different from an asterisk.)
On the flip side, a loss to Henderson might well be taken as conclusive proof that Thatch isn’t going to develop into the guy we expect him to be.
It won’t be a deal-breaker, but it would certainly further stall the-up-and-comer’s momentum.
Either way, we won’t know what this bout truly means until after the fact. Until then, out fingers linger expectantly over Shift-8*.
(*Asterisk No. 10: Hitting Shift-8 on a standard U.S. keyboard results in an asterisk.)
