Lawler vs. Woodley: Career Stats, Odds, Highlights for Both Before UFC 201

When "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler competes, there's a good chance he's winning Fight of the Night. 

The reigning welterweight champion has taken Fight of the Night honors in four of his last six bouts, with the last two coming in ultra-violent title defenses. 

In short, he's the most exciting champion in the UFC right now, and at UFC 201 on Saturday, he'll take on another dangerous opponent who will try to put him away. 

Tyron Woodley has been away from UFC action for more than a year-and-a-half. However, his return fight will afford him the chance to walk away as the champion. 

That's proved rather difficult for challengers to Ruthless in the past. Here's a look at how the two men match up, along with the latest odds from Odds Shark. 

How Tyron Woodley Got Here

Woodley is the classic wrestler who can also take an opponent's head off with his power. Much like Johny Hendricks, he wrestled at the collegiate level before diving into MMA. 

The result is a fighter who has five knockouts, five submission victories and five wins via decision. 

At his best, Woodley is a powerful striker who can catch opponents with a big shot and then follow up with a takedown and work his ground-and-pound. Fans saw him do all of that within one round against Josh Koscheck before blasting him with a brutal overhand right while Koscheck was attempting to close the distance. 

Woodley's ability to blitz opponents with aggressive salvos and dart back out of harm's way has also led to knockouts of Dong Hyun Kim and Carlos Condit in recent years. 

However, Woodley can be inconsistent. UFC welterweight contender Stephen Thompson broke down the dichotomy of the "two Woodleys" who can show up to a fight, per Ryan Gerbosi of Newsday:

“There are two different types of Tyron that show up. Sometimes you get the one that knocks a guy out in the first round. He’s very explosive right off the bat and he’s out for the kill,” Thompson said. “But you also get the guy who sometimes shows up, like when you saw him fight Kelvin Gastelum, he was kind of a little hesitant, wasn’t really too sure or confident in his blitzing. He wasn’t the Tyron that most people like to see, the one who goes out there and just knocks the guy out."

"Hesitant" Woodley can win, but it's not pretty or championship-level. In his last time out in January 2015, he eked out a spit decision against Kelvin Gastelum, landing only 27 strikes over the course of the three-round fight.

He'll need to do better against Lawler.

     

How Robbie Lawler Got Here

The story of Lawler is well-known by now. He made his UFC debut 14 years ago in 2002 and eventually fought in Pride, EliteXC and Strikeforce with mixed results before returning to the UFC. 

Lawler came back to the UFC fresh off a 3-5 run at Strikeforce. He was written off as a journeyman retread before embarking on the best run of his career. Since coming back, he's 8-1 in the Octagon, and he avenged his only loss by beating Hendricks to win the title. 

The champ has returned to the UFC as toughness personified. The refined version of his game still has him absorbing punishment, but he's also able to return fire with crushing power. In his short title reign, he's already given fans three fights that will be hard to forget. 

Just look at the significant strike numbers from his reign:

His opponents out-landed him in two of those three fights, yet he found ways to win. 

In becoming the champion, he's mastered the art of grit, walking through punishment to keep the pressure on opponents. He keeps swinging until they aren't in front of him anymore or he's earned the judges' approval. 

Whether he can continue to take on punishment will be the story in this fight. 

Prediction

This fight has intrigue everywhere. It's defined by questions we won't have the answers to until the fight unfolds.

Can Lawler continue to take upwards of 100 strikes in fights and still win? Will the 18-month layoff impact Woodley? 

Lawler's defense is historically bad. As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics notes, few active fighters have been hit by distance strikes to the head more than Lawler has:

Shock stat:
Only 4 active UFC fighters have been hit in the head from a distance more than Robbie Lawler#UFC201 pic.twitter.com/Ts3ziqyCXr

— Fightnomics Reed (@Fightnomics) July 27, 2016

Another interesting angle to watch is how the fight goes in the later rounds. With a ton of muscle and a reliance on quick movements, Woodley has been known to fade late in fights. Meanwhile, Lawler appears to be a cyborg who uses the damage he absorbs to become stronger and redistribute that pain right back to his opponents. 

That has to be a concern for Woodley, who said he feels comfortable brawling with the champion, per Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports: "I can take it to the ground and grapple, I can wrestle, I can obviously strike with creative strikes and get there really quickly, but in addition to that, I just feel I can brawl and bang as well so there's multiple different ways I feel comfortable winning the fight."

That's a dangerous game to sign up for. Lawler drew Rory MacDonald, Hendricks and Condit into brawls, and all three lost to the champ. 

It wouldn't be altogether shocking to see Woodley come out aggressively and win the fight in the first round. The cumulative damage done to Lawler over the years could finally take its toll. 

However, it's more likely that Lawler takes over the fight in the later rounds after Woodley has some success in Rounds 1 and 2, so that's the prediction. 

Prediction: Lawler by decision.