It's a thin line between predator and prey in the UFC's lightweight division

It’s a cruelly ironic trick that the most talent-rich division in all of MMA is also, by that virtue, the most savagely unforgiving.

I mean, it makes sense. You get a bunch of really good fighters together, and they have no choice but to destroy one another in the never-ending battle for supremacy. That’s basically the job description.

But when you look at how many UFC lightweights there are who could be champ, you realize that anyone trying for the summit in this weight class is going to have to beat a bunch of championship-caliber opponents for non-championship pay, and even that might not be enough in the end.

Take Tony Ferguson. On Saturday night in UFC Fight Night 98’s main event, he methodically dissected Rafael dos Anjos, a man who had the UFC lightweight title around his waist some four months ago, and there’s no guarantee it will earn Ferguson a title shot in the end.

It probably should, when you think about it. Ferguson (22-3 MMA, 12-1 UFC) has won nine straight in the UFC, knocking off perennial contenders and now a very recent former champ. But then, Khabib Nurmagomedov is still sitting at the top of the contender rankings, still making noise like he might up and explode into a cloud of righteous anger if he’s passed over again.

Then, of course, there’s the very real possibility that featherweight champ Conor McGregor might take the belt from lightweight titleholder Eddie Alvarez (28-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC) in Saturday’s UFC 205 headliner and opt for anything from an extended vacation to a Nate Diaz rubber match.

And let’s be honest, no matter what McGregor (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC) asks for, who’s going to tell him no? Especially when he’s got belts from two UFC divisions strapped to his shoulders, and the power to make or break the UFC’s financial fortunes on pay-per-view?

Still, you look at Ferguson spinning his way into a pool of dos Anjos’ blood, kicking his shin like a sadistic toddler and smiling as he eats shots that used to be fight-enders for the former champ, and it’s hard to say that this guy should fight anyone other than the very best in the division next. Of course, he’d have us believe he doesn’t care. He could fight for a title, or just to maintain his current position, and apparently it’s all the same to him.

Because apparently some people enjoy the hazards so much they don’t even insist on the hazard pay.

But if you’re playing along at home and trying to chart the rises and the falls at 155 pounds, these are difficult times. That’s especially true when you look at how fast fortunes can change in a division where the differences between the best and the merely very good are too small to be seen by the naked eye.

That brings us to dos Anjos (25-9 MMA, 14-7 UFC). Last year this time, he was the best lightweight in the world. He steamrolled Anthony Pettis to claim the belt, trucked Donald Cerrone in just over minute, and seemed poised to reign stoically atop the division for many semi-boring months. Then he got knocked out by Alvarez and picked apart by Ferguson, and now suddenly he’s on a two-fight skid wondering how far he’ll fall before he hits something firm enough to stop him.

And, it’s worth noting, it’s not like RDA looked bad on Saturday night. He was right there in the ebb and flow of the fight, battling his way back from deficits and firing off punches that, against someone else, might have been enough to turn the fight upside down.

It just didn’t happen that way against Ferguson, and now he gets to wake up to people insisting that he’s fallen off, while the rest of the pack sprints ahead.

That might just be the nature of the division. When everyone is this good, the slightest wrong move ends in disaster. One day you’ve got a UFC lightweight title as your carry-on luggage, the next you’re bloody and wasted in Mexico City, wondering where you go from here.

It’s a vicious ecosystem at lightweight, which also makes it a lot of fun for the fans and the fantasy matchmakers. Anyone with plans of getting to the top and staying there had better get used to the pattern of swift, violent change. In a division like this, the predator who pauses to catch his breath instantly becomes the prey.

For complete coverage of UFC Fight Night 98, check out the UFC Events section of the site.