If nothing else, Saturday night’s loss to Luke Rockhold at UFC on Fox 15 signaled another sharp downturn for Lyoto Machida.
During the first one minute, 15 seconds of their main event fight, we got to see Machida at his best. He came out of his corner bouncing on his toes, firing off combinations and circling away as Rockhold plodded forward. He connected with a hard right, made the American miss and landed another pair of punches that drew a characteristic “Oh! Oh!” from color commentator Joe Rogan.
For a few fleeting moments it seemed like this could be Machida’s fight. Then came Rockhold’s sweeping, off-target right and the slip/knockdown/stumble that put the former light heavyweight champion down on the canvas.
He never really recovered. Badly hurt by an elbow to the side of the head at the end of the first, he began the second looking like a bad carbon copy of himself. From there, he was easy pickings, and the end result was an impressive, statement victory by Rockhold.
Luke Rockhold just blew the doors off Lyoto Machida like it was nothing. Wow...
— Shaheen Al-Shatti (@shaunalshatti) April 19, 2015
After it was over, and the American stood discussing the particulars of his submission win with Rogan, Machida stayed in the shot. He hadn’t left the cage, and you could see him pacing around in the background, gloves off, his hands on his hips. One brief look at the expression on his face and it crossed our minds that a retirement announcement could be imminent.
But that announcement never came.
Machida didn’t get the chance to get on the mic. The UFC on Fox 15 broadcast was already running late, so only Rockhold got to speak his mind. Afterward, Machida skipped the postfight press conference in favor of a trip to the hospital. As of this writing, we still don’t know what is in his head or in his heart.
Two things seem obvious, though.
First, a month or so shy of turning 37 he’s probably never going to be UFC champion again. Barring injury to a slew of top challengers—Rockhold, Jacare Souza, Yoel Romero—it appears unlikely he’ll ever even get another chance to be No. 1 contender.
Second, and despite that bad news, he's still a very good fighter. He could still probably beat many Top 10 opponents in either the middleweight or light heavyweight divisions.
The question is, is that good enough to keep him going?
It was just four months ago that he polished off CB Dollaway via 62-second TKO at UFC Fight Night 58. That victory seemed to establish a clear line of demarcation in the 185-pound class and place Machida squarely on the elite side of things.
Of his six career losses, four of them came against current, former or ascendant UFC champions. The other two were to former Strikeforce champ Rockhold—who’s about to get his chance to claim UFC gold—and Phil Davis, who is a shoo-in now to become Bellator 205-pound champ after crossing the aisle to the smaller company last week.
All in all, not too shabby of a resume.
Regardless of what happens during Chris Weidman’s upcoming title defense against Vitor Belfort at UFC 187, Machida will have no shortage of big future fight opportunities.
Rockhold is waiting in the wings to get the winner, but somebody has to lose that championship bout too. The Dragon could very easily be around to scoop up the scraps. Very few fans would argue with Machida vs. Belfort, or a rematch with Weidman, if that’s how things shake out.
He’d also make a compelling next opponent for Michael Bisping, no matter what happens during Bisping’s fight against Dollaway on Saturday at UFC 186.
He could even fight Souza, assuming the UFC makes it official that Rockhold will nab the next shot at the 185-pound strap.
But any way it goes down, we’ve reached a point in Machida’s career where we must expect some sort of diminishing returns. For years, his fighting strategy has been dependent on mobility, elusiveness and his own cat-like quickness. He hasn’t taken a ton of damage en route to a 22-6 career record, but his doesn’t seem like a style that’s going to age particularly well.
His drop to middleweight invigorated him during 2013-14, when he won back-to-back fights over Mark Munoz and Gegard Mousasi in convincing fashion. But in his last two losses—to Weidman and Rockhold—he’s been up against foes who were able to handle what he dished out on the feet and took him to the ground when they needed to do it.
Against Weidman, Machida found his legs late and mustered a strong challenge during the final two rounds but came up short on all three judges’ scorecards.
At this point, we’re left with a view of him as a once-great fighter in decline. He’s probably slipped a step behind the true top challengers in the division, and it seems as though things will get no better for him the longer he pushes on.
He’s still clearly got a lot to give, but until we hear from him, we won’t know how long he’s willing to go on. Or how much we want him to sacrifice.
