How to beat Ronda Rousey: Three things Sara McMann must do to pull off the upset

In “Keys to Victory,” we probe the smartest MMA minds to determine where and how big fights will be won and lost. Today, we’ve asked judo and jiu-jitsu black-belt Dave Camarillo to break down UFC 170's main event: Ronda Rousey vs. Sara McMann. 

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A historic clash is set for Saturday’s UFC 170 main event when UFC women’s bantamweight champ Ronda Rousey meets Sara McMann in Las Vegas while looking for her third title defense.

Rousey and McMann are the first Olympians to headline a UFC pay-per-view event. The champ won bronze in judo at the 2008 Beijing Games while the challenger took silver in freestyle wrestling at Athens in 2004.

How these contrasting arts meet is one of the most intriguing questions leading into the fight. Dave Camarillo, who’s coached such MMA standouts as Jon Fitch, Josh Thomson and Josh Koscheck, sees three key areas of engagement in the Rousey vs. McMann matchup. And for the challenger to pull off an upset, she needs to win in those areas.

1. Walk, don’t run

Rousey’s previous opponent, Miesha Tate, made a critical error by running at the champ with a high stance that allowed her to execute a signature throw, the uchi mata.

“She fought exactly the way you want to if you want to lose to Rousey,” Camarillo said.

When she’s closing distance, Camarillo said, McMann has to have a lower center of gravity to prevent a high-impact throw that will put her on top on the mat.

“Wrestlers don’t need a whole lot of movement to take people down, but judo does,” he said. “It requires what we call kazushi, which is the off-balancing of your opponent. Rousey redirects inertia.”

McMann, he said, needs to be careful how she covers ground, and early on establish her striking. One of the biggest deciding factors will play out when they get within arm’s length of each other.

2. Control the clinch

Camarillo thinks Rousey’s opponents have used the wrong kind of clinch in combating her judo throws. Rather than attempting to lock their hands around her waist, or allowing her to get her arms around theirs, they should use a Muay Thai clinch to keep distance and keep them outside their “fence,” or elbows.

“If I keep my elbows in, I keep you away from my body,” Camarillo said. “If you get in my yard, which is hugging me, then you’re going to go for a ride.”

McMann has to be comfortable in the clinch – but the type of clinch that she may benefit from during striking techniques such as punches, elbows and knees.

“And then moving, not lingering,” Camarillo added. “The clinch can be a moving clinch, where you’re countering her ability to grab and throw you.”

“[McMann] can use her footwork and let her hands go, and not be afraid of the clinch, because that’s going to have a psychological effect. You need to be OK with clinching, but you need to be on a proper clinch right away, whether you’re using it to counter or move or to do damage. If she can do that and Ronda is not getting those high-impact throws, she could potentially frustrate Ronda. Not an easy task.”

3. Top dog: How to avoid the armbar if you’re McMann.

Both Rousey and McMann are effective from top position, but for different reasons. Rousey quickly advances past her opponents’ guard to set up her patented armbar submission. McMann also wants to pass, but she’s more apt to sit in guard and work ground and pound.

Against Rousey, Camarillo said the challenger needs to put her hands in the right place so the champ isn’t able to isolate her arm from the bottom. She also needs to constantly square her hips to prevent Rousey from gaining an angle from which she can attack a limb or apply a triangle choke.

“Not only do you need to know the technical defenses and counters, but you need to maintain composure because people get submitted simply by being mentally rattled,” he said. “What I like about Sara is she’s got that grinding Jon Fitch style to her. Controlling your opponents hips and movement, you’re slowly grinding out damage. That may be a good recipe to beat Rousey.”

Conversely, Rousey may need to slow down her game to prevent McMann from scrambling to her feet, as wrestlers often do well.

“If you’re on top and you’re creating a lot of quick movement, the chance for a scramble is higher,” Camarillo said. “Of course, the chance to get a quicker armbar is there, but that’s the gamble. To me, there’s a time to grind, and there’s a time to do damage, and all of that needs to be calculated properly.”

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