For all the hype behind the UFC 205 main event, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that the matchup between Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor is a fascinating tactical matchup.
Fans are so used to hearing McGregor talk about jumping from one weight class to the next that it's hard to keep in mind that this is his first trip to the lightweight division. His fights against Nate Diaz were at 170 and he obviously rose to prominence by dominating the 145-pound weight class.
In short, we're going to see a new rendition of McGregor.
And the scary thing is this might be his best weight class.
Chamatkar Sandhu of MMA Fighting put together a mashup of his weigh-in photos from all three weight classes. By appearances, it looks like Goldilocks may have found the weight class that was just right:
Conor McGregor official weigh in comparisons
— Chamatkar Sandhu (@SandhuMMA) November 11, 2016
Top - 154.4lbs for #UFC205
Bottom Left - 145lbs for UFC 194
Bottom Right - 168lbs for UFC 196 pic.twitter.com/AslaT2tNX5
Just how good McGregor looks at 155 is one of many mysteries that will unfold in the main event. Here's a look at how each man can force the right terms of engagement on their opponent and walk away victorious in New York.
How Eddie Alvarez Can Win
One of Eddie Alvarez's greatest weapons as a fighter is his versatility.
Alvarez is a more than capable striker. That was on full display in his title win over Rafael dos Anjos. The former Bellator champion was able to use RDA's aggressiveness against him, countering his attacks and capitalizing quickly in a first-round finish.
But that Alvarez wasn't nearly the same one who won fights against Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis. Going against an explosive counter-striker in Pettis, Alvarez opted to turn the pressure on, using the clinch and takedowns to wear down his opponent over the course of three rounds.
The fact is, the less exciting this fight is, the more it swings in Alvarez's favor.
The former Bellator champion is an all-terrain fighter in the fact that he can play the counterpunch game, but that's not necessarily his best route to victory against someone in McGregor who is much more crafty than RDA in his striking approach.
Alvarez can't forsake the stand-up game completely and focus solely on bringing the featherweight champion to the mat, but it needs to be the cornerstone of his game. Lost in the fact sometimes that Alvarez has excellent boxing is the fact that he averages 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes, according to FightMetric. That's a little over one takedown per round.
That's the exact goal that Alvarez should have.
He can win exchanges on the feet, certainly, but the exchanges on the feet should be started with the idea of ultimately pinning McGregor to the cage or dragging him to the mat.
As good as McGregor has been on his feet, doubts about his ground game still exist. Nate Diaz obviously submitted him and Chad Mendes had his moments before McGregor's comeback knockout win once the fight was stood back up.
Ultimately, the Alvarez who pinned down Pettis is more likely to win this fight over the course of five rounds than the one who looked for a striking match against Rafael dos Anjos.
How Conor McGregor Can Win
For Conor McGregor, this bout needs to be a continuation of the development he showed in the rematch with Nate Diaz.
In that fight, McGregor understood that his output had to change from when he fights at featherweight. At 145 pounds, the power disparity is so large between McGregor and his opponents that he could end most fights with a cleanly landed left. Against bigger opponents, that isn't the case.
In his first fight against Diaz, McGregor put all of his energy into winning the fight early and came away gassed to the point that Diaz easily finished the bout.
In the second fight, McGregor took a slightly more measured approach, picked his spots and was able to fight effectively for five rounds and take a decision.
| McGregor-Diaz I | McGregor-Diaz II | |
| 74 | Round 1 | 58 |
| 66 | Round 2 | 70 |
| N/A | Round 3 | 45 |
| N/A | Round 4 | 76 |
| N/A | Round 5 | 37 |
FightMetric
Fighting Alvarez gives McGregor yet another opportunity to show that he can adapt his fighting style to a bigger weight class than 145.
In many ways, Alvarez is a bigger, more versatile Chad Mendes. He has wrestling chops, the ability to attempt takedowns in volume and some power on the feet.
McGregor still needs to pressure. If he chooses to sit back and try to counter Alvarez, it opens himself up to spend the night against the cage, frustrated by his lack of opportunities. However, he needs to pressure with his footwork, rather than volume.
That means managing the distance so that Alvarez has to respect McGregor's kicking game and lead hand, but he doesn't have to be constantly throwing to back him up.
If McGregor can keep this fight standing for all five rounds and attack with more efficiency than volume, it's going to be his fight to lose.
Prediction
Ultimately, the fact that Alvarez has two paths to victory might be what hurts him in the end.
His clear advantage lies in grappling. Making the fight boring and closing the distance both play into his strengths and minimizes the risk of being rocked by a straight left hand.
But that doesn't appear to be his plan.
"I think we do it under the nine-minute mark," Alvarez said, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. "Big, big heavy shots, he goes down and then submission."
That's a game plan that's based on an older version of McGregor. Regardless of how one might feel about the brash Irishman, the fighter has developed every time out there.
After learning how to fight at a higher weight, drawing Alvarez into a striking contest is his clearest path to victory. If that's the way that Alvarez wants to approach the fight, he'll be playing right into McGregor's hands.
McGregor by third-round TKO.
