Why Michael Chiesa picks Khabib Nurmagomedov to beat Tony Ferguson at UFC 223

LAS VEGAS – UFC lightweight Michael Chiesa admires the heck out of colleague Tony Ferguson – but still thinks “El Cucuy” will lose to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 223.

Chiesa said Ferguson is “as dynamic as it gets” and might have more weapons than anyone else in the UFC. But the interim champ falls short in one key area.

You can guess where that is.

“Khabib has got the equalizer,” Chiesa told MMAjunkie in his breakdown of the April 23 pay-per-view headliner at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn, N.Y. “We’re talking that wrestling and pressure. It’s unparalleled.”

Chiesa, who’s No. 9 in the USA TODAY Sports/MMAjunkie MMA lightweight rankings, doesn’t expect it to be easy for No. 3-ranked Nurmagomedov (25-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) once he gets No. 2 Ferguson (23-3 MMA, 13-1 UFC) to the mat. There will be elbows and submission attempts as he tries to ground and pound.

Just look at Ferguson’s effort against Kevin Lee, Chiesa said, for evidence of the damage that Nurmagomedov will have to endure.

“I don’t see Tony trying to stop the takedowns,” said Chiesa (14-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC), who meets ex-champ and No. 12-ranked Anthony Pettis (20-7 MMA, 7-6 UFC) on UFC 223’s PPV main card. “But Khabib’s going to pay for it.”

And it’s going to be a long slog for both. Chiesa predicts a five-round fight in which both fighters end up battered and bloody. At the end of 25 minutes, however, Nurmagomedov will have more points accrued.

“I still think Khabib wins, three (rounds) to two,” Chiesa said. “Possibly a split decision. I think Tony’s going to win some rounds off his back.

“(If) Tony wins, I wouldn’t be surprised, but I just don’t know if (Tony has) the right grappling style to beat Khabib. I think to beat Khabib, you’ve got to maintain a scramble once you hit the floor and try to spin around and scramble to dominant position. I think Tony’s going to accept the guard. I don’t think that’s a bad thing, but I don’t think it’s the best thing.”

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