UFC on FOX 29: Main Card Staff Predictions

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And we're back!

After last week's utterly insane fight week and the countless hours of nonsense it provided for the MMA world, the sport's top promotion is back in the blocks and ready to go with UFC on FOX: Gaethje vs. Poirier.

The featured lightweight bout will be pure, uncut viciousness and names like Carlos Condit and Michelle Waterson are padding out the card in an effort to draw some viewers. It's reasonable to think that might happen as well, as Gaethje has enjoyed a prominent first year in the UFC and all fights on the main card offer something intriguing.

Here to break down the event by way of some predictions are Scott Harris, Nathan McCarter, Steven Rondina and Matthew Ryder. 

Let's see what the lads are saying.

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Harris: The bloom has come off the rose lately with Michelle Waterson. Her karate style isn't consistently effective, and her ground game is not where it needs to be. Her size also is a detriment. This all spells trouble against Casey, who has size and jiu-jitsu for days. Waterson tastes defeat in her third consecutive bout.

Casey, unanimous decision

McCarter: Waterson will almost always be at a size & strength disadvantage at strawweight and that could come into play against Casey. But am I going to pull the trigger here? No. Casey has made a lot of strides, but she's far too inconsistent to tip the scales in her direction. Waterson should be able to out-point her with quality striking in all three rounds.

Waterson, unanimous decision

Rondina: Nathan hit the nail on the head when it came to this one. Waterson is an immensely talented fighter who is put into the unfortunate position of having to fight above her ideal weight class. I'm feeling like her skills will carry her to victory, but it's hard to be too confident with her.

Waterson, unanimous decision

Ryder: Waterson is a popular choice for big exposure opportunities, thanks to her charisma and exciting style. Casey has kind of developed in the big leagues, and she’s never been outclassed in a UFC fight despite an up-and-down record. Let’s say she puts it together and pulls off an upset this time out.

Casey, unanimous decision

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Harris: It's a shame Matt Brown ducked out of this match, as that would have been all-world violence, despite the fact that both men are past their primes. This should still be exciting, though, with "The Other Cowboy" going for a brawl that Condit should win with his patented punch-kick combinations.

Condit, unanimous decision

McCarter: Give me the "Natural Born Killer" in this spot. He didn't look outstanding in his return contest, but ring rust and a bad matchup had a lot to do with that. Now that Condit is back to active competition without long delays he should return in form. Oliveira eats some heavy shots before Condit locks up a choke to get the tap.

Condit, Submission, Rd. 2

Rondina: Choosing this fight boils down to one simple question; why did Condit lose to Neil Magny last time he stepped into the cage? If he was just rusty from a lengthy layoff, then he should be able to handle the middling Brazilian. If it's because he's shopworn from one of the most brutal careers in MMA history, well, he probably won't. Unfortunately, I feel like the latter is likely more true than the former.

Oliveira, unanimous decision

Ryder: Condit was booked to fight Matt Brown before Brown blew out his knee. This one is slightly less likely to provide guaranteed fistic bliss, but Oliveira doesn’t mind a wild scrap in his own right so this one should be enjoyable nonetheless. Condit looked terrible in a loss to Neil Magny in December, but he’ll get back on the horse this time out.

Condit, unanimous decision

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Harris: Vettori is probably the more well-rounded of the two, but Adesanya's on another level. Even more than his dynamic striking, observers were enouraged by Adesanya stuffing 12 of Rob Wilkinson's 15 takedown attempts in his UFC debut in February. That should be the case again, with Vettori unable to get this to the ground and ply his grappling, thereby making him a sitting duck on the feet.

Adesanya, TKO, Rd. 2

McCarter: Adesanya is going to keep his hot streak going. He'll style all over Vettori and get a finish. The bigger questions surrounding this bout will be how quickly the UFC moves to make him a contender. The new star keeps shining bright.

Adesanya, TKO, Rd. 1

Rondina: I've used this exact line a bunch of times in the past, but I'll use it again here. This is a fight designed for Adesanya to win, and he'll make the most of the opportunity. Don't really need to go into much more detail than that.

Adesanya, TKO, Rd. 1

Ryder: Adesanya is about as hyped as any prospect in the UFC after one fight. That probably indicates a greater problem with how the UFC builds fighters these days, but that’s not what we’re here for. They’re looking for him to provide a flashy stoppage on network television, and he’ll give it to them.

Adesanya, TKO, Rd. 1

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Harris: You have to feel for Poirier, who just keeps jumping past each hurdle only to find an even higher hurdle in front of him. Just give the guy a title shot already! He'll probably get one if he wins this fight, but it doesn't seem likely to happen. Gaethje will chop Poirier down with leg kicks, work along the fence and punish Poirier with thudding uppercuts.

Gaethje, TKO, Rd. 2

McCarter: What a fight this will be...for however long it lasts. Poirier's best strategy may be to grapple early in the hopes of slowing down an onslaught from the outset of the fight, but that's most likely not going to work. It'll get grimy and gritty right away. That favors Gaethje. Poirier gets clipped and finished by the UFC's second-most violent lightweight.

Gaethje, TKO, Rd. 1

Rondina: Porier's very good, but this is a really bad matchup for him. Unless he can really box up Gaethje, look for the former WSOF champ to do his thing and press forward into his strikes and land enough to get the stoppage. 

Gaethje, TKO, Rd. 3

Ryder: As it usually the case with Gaethje fights, this one is a guaranteed firefight. Poirier is a very game opponent and another man who’s not afraid to let things get a little nuts. He’s looked great at 155-pounds, but he might be a fight or two away from being ready for Gaethje’s unique brand of chaos.

Gaethje, TKO, Rd. 3