There is certainly no shortage of intrigue surrounding Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 89 main event.
For starters, the winner of this bout between Steven “Wonderboy” Thompson and Rory MacDonald would be the obvious choice as the next No. 1 contender for the welterweight title—except for one thing.
It remains very much unclear if MacDonald will still be a UFC fighter come next week and that’s just one reason why the outcome here might shape the futures of two of the sport’s most promising 170-pounders.
At just 26 years old, it already feels as though MacDonald has been in the UFC for a lifetime. Since his debut in early 2010, he’s fought in the Octagon 12 times, putting up a record of 9-3 (he’s 18-3 overall).
All those years and all those fights for such a young guy gives spectators the impression we’ve watched him grow from child prodigy into full-fledged title contender. For as long as we can remember, he’s been considered the most likely heir apparent to Georges St-Pierre as the UFC’s next big Canadian star.
Throughout the journey, MacDonald has appeared to be a solid company man for the UFC. He broke in with the promotion when he was just 20 years old, so perhaps he felt as though he owed it for giving him his professional life.
Much of that changed rather suddenly, however, after MacDonald fought Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title last January at UFC 189, losing via TKO a minute into the final round. The bout was a brutal one and lauded as an instant classic—it was the consensus pick as 2015’s fight of the year—and MacDonald paid a tremendous physical price for going toe-to-toe with the champ for 21 minutes.
He hasn’t fought since and when he appeared on Ariel Helwani’s The MMA Hour in March, he sounded every bit the disgruntled employee (h/t Shaun Al-Shatti at MMAFighting.com). MacDonald said negotiations for a new contract with the UFC had failed and that he expected to test free agency after his current deal expired with the Thompson fight.
"I want to make the most money I can. I want to get paid for what I bring to the table," MacDonald said at the time. "I've sacrificed a lot to get to the top, to the world title. I really sacrificed and I took a lot of chances. I did a lot of favors, I felt like, for the UFC and I don't think it got returned. So now it's all about making money and whoever wants to pay me the most is where I'll go."
There’s no overstating what it would mean for MacDonald to leave the UFC at this stage in his career. He would be the youngest, most talented, most recognizable fighter to hit the free agent market during the modern era. He’d be a championship-level prize; one that potentially comes with a legion of Canadian fans ready to follow him from one company to another.
It would be huge, especially if he beats Thompson this weekend.
A victory would reaffirm MacDonald's position as the best fighter in the division besides the champion. Presumably—along with all the factors mentioned above—that would give him added leverage in any contract negotiation.
Meanwhile, a loss might mean he gives up much of his ability to dictate terms.
"This fight is definitely going to make a huge difference in my career, one way or another...," MacDonald told ESPN.com's Brett Okamoto this week. "I think thousands or even millions of dollars are on the line."
There’s another, slightly more unseemly aspect to MacDonald’s appearance in the cage this weekend. Eleven months have passed since that grueling bout against Lawler and analysts will be looking to see if he can return as the same guy as when he left.
Fights as violent as that one have been known to change people. Despite MacDonald’s youth, he’s already put a lot of mileage on his body, so he’ll have to prove he’s still on the upswing.
If Rory MacDonald didn't take so much abuse against Robbie Lawler I'd like him to beat Stephen Thompson. Now not so sure. What do you think?
— Josh Gross (@yay_yee) June 15, 2016
If he can do that, and if he decisively trumps Thompson on Saturday, it’s difficult to fathom that the UFC would simply let him walk. Then again, there is so much uncertainty surrounding the fight company right now—including reports of an “imminent” sale of the entire UFC from FLO Sports’ Jeremy Botter—it’s impossible to predict what might happen.
Meanwhile, the stakes are also fairly high for Thompson.
Compared to a divisional mainstay like MacDonald, the Wonderboy is a bit of a Johnny-come-lately. Despite being 33 years old and having eight fights in the UFC, the karate master didn’t really hit the big time until his destruction of former champion Johny Hendricks back in February.
At this stage, however, Thompson has won six straight fights over an increasingly difficult gauntlet of competition. If he is able to tack on a seventh with a win over MacDonald—who is currently the top welterweight contender according to the UFC’s official rankings—it would be tough to deny him his own title shot.
“A win over Rory, I'm putting my foot down,” Thompson told Fox Sports’ Damon Martin this week. “They've got to give me that title shot. I'm definitely going to put my foot down and I'm going to demand it. Maybe in a very respectful way, but I'm going to demand it.”
A fight between Thompson and the heavy-hitting Lawler would be madness. The sort of exposure that would come along with a dynamite championship bout might also be just what the doctor ordered for Wonderboy’s career.
You don’t exactly have to be Don King to see how the smiling, positive-minded guy who fights like he lives inside a video game could be a promotable entity for the UFC. His status as both a next-gen MMA fighter and traditional martial artist makes him the perfect prototype for what future UFC athletes might look like.
Provided he beats MacDonald, of course.
If Thompson loses, he shuffles back to the crowd of 170-pound hopefuls. It wouldn’t totally kill his upward mobility in the welterweight rat race, but it would certainly delay it. As he treks into his mid-30s, it’s not as though he has an unlimited amount of time to reach his full potential in the UFC.
You want another layer of intrigue?
These guys also know each other well—and Thompson has called MacDonald a friend—after training together on-and-off at Montreal’s Tri-Star gym alongside the legendary St-Pierre.
So there you have it. Each of these men has something specific to prove and everything to lose headed into the biggest fight of their lives.
Both might look back on it as an important turning point in their careers.
From the outside looking in, you couldn’t ask for anything more.
