Things tend to run hot and cold between Conor McGregor and the UFC.
There has been precious little middle ground with the fight company and its biggest male star throughout their three-year working relationship. With so much money on the line and both parties known to myopically chase their own visions, there’s no shortage of reasons why this marriage of convenience trends toward stormy.
On McGregor’s end, it’s all Ferrari rides and toasting the good life with the owners until suddenly it’s abrupt retirement announcements and posts that seem specifically designed to needle the organization.
On the UFC’s side, it must feel like a constant struggle to keep the reins on the free-thinking promotional juggernaut it has created through eight appearances in the Octagon.
As we approach Saturday’s UFC 202 and McGregor’s grudge rematch with Nate Diaz, we are left to assume all parties are on good terms. Good enough, at least, to allow this fight to go on as scheduled.
You’ll recall that’s a stark contrast to the turn of events that resulted in the bout unexpectedly being pulled from the UFC 200 lineup in April.
However, you always have to wonder: If McGregor beats Diaz this weekend is he headed for yet another showdown with UFC management?
After all, UFC President Dana White has publicly plotted a path forward for McGregor after this bout.
White has said all along the do-over against Diaz at 170 pounds is the fight McGregor insisted on having. Win, lose or draw, the UFC president wants his featherweight champion to next go back down to 145 pounds and defend his title, almost certainly against interim champ Jose Aldo.
It’s an idea White doubled down on as recently as Tuesday, during an appearance on The Jim Rome Show (via MMA Fighting's Luke Thomas):
White: If McGregor wins at #UFC202, he goes back to 145. If he loses, still goes to 145. "That's the plan," he said.
— Luke Thomas (@SBNLukeThomas) August 16, 2016
But McGregor?
He’s not committing to anything just yet.
McGregor is a big featherweight, and the weight cut to 145 pounds is a difficult one for him. When he departed the division in the wake of his title win over Aldo at UFC 194 in favor of a planned shot at the lightweight title and before jumping to the hastily made meeting with Diaz, there were widespread suspicions he’d never go back.
In interviews, McGregor is quick to assert he’s still the king of the featherweights—but, then again, what smart businessman would say anything else? He told The MMA Hour's Ariel Helwani (via MMA Fighting’s Shaun Al-Shatti) he has a nutritionist on the team now, and the drop to 145 pounds prior to his victory over Aldo was the easiest one yet.
He even showed up ringside to watch his Brazilian nemesis defeat Frankie Edgar for the interim title at UFC 200, looking somewhat more interested than a casual viewer:
During an interview with Helwani on Monday, McGregor left the door open for a return to 145 pounds.
He also left the door wide-open to do something else entirely.
"Look, it's got to be right. I've got to be intrigued by it,” he said (via Al-Shatti). “I've got this guy [Diaz] to take care of, but I'm still the featherweight world champion and after this fight we'll sit down and I'm sure they'll attempt to make it right, make it sweet for me."
Perhaps if McGregor loses back-to-back fights with Diaz it will constitute an out-and-out disaster for his burgeoning superstardom. It would stand as a big, flashing beacon that the bombastic Irishman isn’t anywhere near as good as he says he is.
It might also strip him of a lot of his bargaining power. After all, if it turns out McGregor can’t compete with the UFC’s lightweights and welterweights, the most valuable thing he has going for him is that featherweight title.
In a losing scenario, it’s possible he would have no choice but to return to the lighter division and renew his white-hot rivalry with Aldo. As fallback positions go, it’s not the worst we’ve ever heard.
But what if McGregor wins?
If he beats Diaz at 170 pounds, won't McGregor have bigger plans than going back to featherweight? After all, this is a guy who doesn't seem to like letting other people make decisions for him.
There’s next to zero chance his best, most lucrative next move would be to cut back down to 145 and rematch with a guy he knocked out in 13 seconds just eight months ago. So, what will McGregor want to do if he still gets to call his own shots? And how will the UFC respond?
It might be the biggest unknown looming in the wake of UFC 202.
Prior to the loss to Diaz in their first bout, notions of fighting for titles at higher weight classes dominated the talk around McGregor. So many rumors swirled around a potential meeting with then-170-pound champ Robbie Lawler that Lawler had to comment on them when speaking to Zach Klein during an appearance on WSB-TV in Atlanta back in June.
Naturally, he did so in the most Lawler way possible:
If McGregor puts together a convincing performance against Diaz, those opportunities will still exist for him.
Lawler is not the 170-pound champion anymore, but new titlist Tyron Woodley told Helwani he’s hungry for a big payday. Who could provide a bigger, better opportunity than McGregor? Almost nobody.
Rafael Dos Anjos—McGregor’s original opponent at UFC 196—has also lost his title, giving way to the reign of new champ Eddie Alvarez. Immediately after winning the 155-pound strap in July, Alvarez came to the post-fight press conference and called out—guess who—McGregor.
For his part, McGregor told Helwani he thinks Alvarez would be easy pickings.
"He's a bum as well," McGregor said (via Al-Shatti). "He's a novice ... so we'll see about him. We'll see."
Looming over all this, naturally, is the impending return of all-time welterweight great Georges St-Pierre. The former champion hasn’t been inside the Octagon since November 2013, but recently put himself back into the UFC’s drug-testing protocol. He’ll have to sit out four months, but assuming he passes all his tests, he'll be cleared to return to action.
Just doing some simple math, that potentially puts St-Pierre’s comeback around New Year’s Eve. Given that the UFC traditionally schedules one of its biggest pay-per-views of the year around that holiday, it seems like a natural landing spot for GSP’s first return fight.
St-Pierre and Woodley have already talked about setting up a title clash, per Bloody Elbow's Anton Tabuena, but to make a big splash at a big event there might be no better opponent for the French Canadian phenom than McGregor.
Again, depending on how things go against Diaz, their two schedules might line up perfectly.
One thing we know for sure about McGregor is he will continue to chase the biggest payday no matter what. For continued evidence of that, one must look no further than the pre-fight headlines for UFC 202, where McGregor appears more interested in continuing his idle talk about boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr. and prodding the entire WWE roster than to razz Diaz.
He’s always going to make the biggest splash and demand the biggest checks.
If there’s an option out there that appears “sweeter” than Aldo, that’s the one he'll want, maybe even if it means defying his boss.
Maybe even if it means putting his relationship with the UFC back on the rocks.
