Conor McGregor’s featherweight title was never meant to be on the line this weekend at UFC 196.
Even before a last-minute injury forced lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos off Saturday’s card and put Nate Diaz on, this fight was about a different set of spoils.
As first conceived, it was to be the Irishman’s debut at 155 pounds and his chance to make history all rolled into one. Beating Dos Anjos would’ve made McGregor the first man ever to simultaneously hold two UFC titles in two different weight classes.
So that was going to be kind of a big deal.
Then Dos Anjos broke his foot and, in the mad scramble to find a replacement, highfalutin ideas like history, titles and superfights all fell by the wayside.
Due to Diaz’s last-minute entrance, this fight will now be contested at welterweight. That way, nobody will have to worry about cutting too many pounds on short notice, and fans won’t have to waste time fretting over what’s at stake now without Dos Anjos’ belt involved.
After watching Diaz and McGregor show up at last week’s press conference and shout at each other over all the stuff they don’t care about, it’s tempting not to think all that deeply about what this fight means. Perhaps this is nothing more than a fun matchup between two popular attractions who each talk a good game and each possess exciting striking styles.
Clearly, both McGregor and Diaz have done their best during fight week to live up to at least those expectations (NSFW language in video):
.@TheNotoriousMMA and @NateDiaz209 went OFF on each other during tonight's show! #UFC196 https://t.co/OrG66qMkgg
— FSLive: Jay & Dan (@FOXSportsLive) March 4, 2016
Make no mistake, though, this fight could still have a far-reaching impact on the UFC landscape. Depending on how McGregor fares in his debut at 170 pounds, it could touch off a trickle-down effect that reaches all the way to the 145-pound division.
And, heck, 155 pounds, too.
Despite the fact McGregor has been adamant about not vacating his featherweight title, he said this week he would only return to 145 pounds if and when the proper matchup presents itself.
"Who is there, though?” McGregor said, via Fox Sports' Damon Martin. “Let me see some of these damn bums gear up and fight and make some noise...I'm sitting pretty over here. They need to...make me stand up and say 'OK I'll take him.' That's what I need to see."
This is probably irksome news for featherweight contenders like Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo. For some time now, Edgar has been patiently—and, at times, impatiently—waiting for another chance to win the 145-pound crown.
Aldo, too, has been champing at the bit to get revenge on McGregor after his 13-second knockout loss at UFC 194, though he turned down the opportunity to step in for Dos Anjos on short notice.
Both Edgar and Aldo have said they’re content to wait for a title shot, but the chance that either guy eventually cashes in on the big-money McGregor sweepstakes is only getting slimmer and slimmer.
It could well be we’ve already seen the last of Big Mac at featherweight.
Even before this week, there was ample evidence to suggest McGregor is done fighting at 145 pounds if he can help it. In the wake of his victory over Aldo, company president Dana White appeared on Fox Sports 1 to say McGregor’s camp made it clear he was through making the difficult weight cut.
“[McGregor’s coach] John Kavanagh said in the Octagon he’ll never make 145 again,” White said, via MMA Junkie.com’s Mike Bohn. “He said, ‘I don’t want him making that weight again; it’s not good for him.’”
In advance of fighting Dos Anjos at 155 pounds, and now taking on Diaz at 170, McGregor hasn’t gotten any slimmer, either. He’s added enough extra bulk that his new large-and-in-charge look has been a hot topic of conversation this week:
Conor McGregor weight difference, then and now... pic.twitter.com/lvhlLarxMS
— JUG (@5Lerones) March 3, 2016
He contends he can and will make the featherweight limit again if called upon. The question may be: Will he have to?
The deeper McGregor gets into his march through multiple UFC weight classes, the more it starts to seem like featherweight is no longer his best or most lucrative option. Assuming he beats Diaz on Saturday, the Irishman’s next fight will surely be targeted for UFC 200 in July, where he’ll have three realistic choices.
(1) He could drop back to 145 pounds and defend his title against Aldo or Edgar.
(2) He could circle back and challenge for Dos Anjos’ lightweight belt.
Or, (3) he could make himself comfortable at welterweight and take a run at Robbie Lawler’s 170-pound championship.
You don’t have to be a genius to figure out which one of those options is preferable to all who stand to profit from it. It’s Lawler all the way.
This should be no surprise. McGregor was laying the groundwork for an eventual shot at the welterweight champion as far back as March 2015. It’s just that, back then, we thought he was blowing hot air.
"I’ve got no problem going right up to welterweight,” McGregor said at the time, via MMAjunkie’s Rick Lee. “I’ve said that before. If [big fights] present themselves, I’ll take them.”
At last week’s madcap press conference with Diaz, McGregor also implied he’ll skip right over his previously scheduled bout with Dos Anjos. Coach Rafael Cordeiro says it'll only take three weeks before the lightweight champ can begin training again, but by then McGregor may not be interested.
"It's hard to commit to Dos Anjos again…" McGregor said. "It could take Dos Anjos two [times] to pull up the courage, but when you pull out with an injury like that—a bruise on the foot—there's not much I can do to bring you back into the mix. It does change things a little bit."
In other words—and as long as Lawler is game, which you know he is—it sure sounds like McGregor would go straight for the bigger prize if he gets past Diaz.
On Thursday, White gave his official blessing to the idea:
Dana White: I'm open to whatever he's considering doing. If he wants to fight Robbie Lawler, Conor is tough to deny these days.
— Shaheen Al-Shatti (@shaunalshatti) March 3, 2016
And all of this is a lengthy way of saying it figures to be a long time before we see McGregor at featherweight again, if ever. It might take losses to both Lawler and Dos Anjos before McGregor would even consider it—and that likely gets him to early 2017 without a second thought for 145-pounds.
That would be too long for the UFC to wait. It would end up having to strip McGregor of the title. The company simply couldn’t afford to have the featherweight championship on the shelf for months and months. If it plays out that way, look for Edgar and Aldo to end up fighting each other for a newly vacant 145 pound title.
It would also open the door for Dos Anjos to return with a title fight against an actual lightweight opponent—somebody like Khabib Nurmagomedov or Tony Ferguson.
In fact, it’s possible McGregor sticking it out at welterweight a little longer could lead to bigger and better things for everybody.
So, in the end, maybe McGregor is right. Maybe all his foes really should be thanking him.
