Nick Diaz and Anderson Silva return to the cage this weekend for a five-round main event that is a dream fight.
Two men who love to go toe-to-toe while talking trash. They are showoffs, but in drastically different ways. The former UFC middleweight champion is the favorite, and rightfully so. However, the odds are quite steep. Silva is currently in at minus-450, according to Odds Shark.
Is Diaz being disrespected? No. The matchup, on paper, looks ideal for a Silva return. He is fighting an undersized opponent who would struggle to take him down, and on the feet he has a distinct advantage. All signs point to Silva having a relatively easy night with Diaz.
Guys, Nick Diaz is fighting Anderson Silva this weekend. Nobody has any idea what it's going to look like, but all signs point to crazy.
— Patrick Wyman (@Patrick_Wyman) January 26, 2015
But is Diaz being underestimated? Absolutely.
Everyone still sees Silva as a hero, and as such they are worshipping him. The problem is that this god-like figure in this sport has been reduced to being a mere mortal. Father Time has appeared.
“The Spider” is nowhere near what he was. Silva is not 32 years old anymore. He is knocking on 40.
Diaz is no spring chicken either, but the former Strikeforce champion has a style that will allow him to be in this fight if Silva's deterioration has continued. He has good length and good technique. Silva's recent defensive style plays right into Diaz's hands.
In recent fights, we have seen Silva's back to the fence. He's allowing his opponents to get in close. Diaz loves this position. With his opponent's back against the fence, the Stockton native can start throwing beautiful combinations that go from body to head repeatedly. Silva will not want to continue to employ that strategy. He needs to fight at range.
The biggest reason Diaz is being underestimated is Silva's chin. He used to be able to absorb a lot of punishment but following the knockout to Chris Weidman, we don't know if he has reached his limit on taking hard shots.
Fighters almost have a set number of punches they can eat before their body says no more. We have seen it with the best. In MMA, Chuck Liddell is the shining example. Liddell was able to walk through the punches of some of the hardest hitters—and then one day he couldn't walk through the shots of the mid-tier of his division.
Is Silva at that point? We will know when Diaz tests his chin.
I just got a message from someone in the MMA industry telling me that Anderson Silva got knocked out sparring in Los Angeles this weekend.
— James Goyder (@JamesGoyder) January 18, 2015
Rumors have already circulated via Twitter that Silva has been knocked out in training. That came from an unconfirmed tweet by MMA journalist James Goyder, but it does make one raise their eyebrows.
This fight may be more about how Silva has depreciated than anything else.
Diaz himself has taken a lot of punishment throughout his career, but he is only 31. He should still have a good amount left in the gas tank. But his fighting life has been helped by an infrequent trip to the cage. This will only be his third fight in the past three years.
The stylistic matchup of this fight screams at everyone that Silva will walk through Diaz in entertaining fashion, but honestly no one can state that as fact. The way Silva fights, in an attempt to entertain the masses, will give Diaz his opportunities to land clean shots. Diaz isn't known for his one-punch KO power, but it's there if he lands cleanly. And perhaps even if not, if Silva's chin has truly gone by the wayside.
Nick Diaz is being underestimated for Saturday's main event. There is no way around it. This is not 2008 anymore. Silva's glory days are almost assuredly behind him, and Diaz can put an exclamation point on that notion with a decisive victory.
Do not sleep on Mr. 209. He won't be scared or intimidated, and he will attempt to walk the former pound-for-pound king down at UFC 183.
