Trading Shots: What's to become of you now, Lyoto Machida?

Lyoto Machida

In this week’s Trading Shots, MMAjunkie columnist Ben Fowlkes and retired UFC/WEC fighter Danny Downes discuss Lyoto Machida’s knockout loss at the hands of Yoel Romero at UFC Fight Night 70 in Hollywood, Fla., and what it means for the former champ to lose two fights in two months.

Fowlkes: Danny, as tempting as it is for us to use this space to try and figure out what Yoel Romero said and/or meant in his post-fight speech (honestly, the more I listen to it, the more I’m convinced you could hear almost anything there at the end), I’d like instead for us to think of poor, poor Lyoto Machida.

Once the UFC light heavyweight champ with his own era named after him, “The Dragon” is now 1-3 in his last four, with two straight losses that saw him take rather savage beatings roughly two months apart. That can’t be good for him, can it? Should he have waited longer to get back in the cage? Is this a sign of Machida’s decline or of the middleweight division’s current vicious awesomeness?

Downes: I don’t think any of those things are mutually exclusive. It could be a little bit of everything. Heck, we could blame the fact that he had to fight in the “small cage” for last night’s outcome. With a little more room to move around, perhaps he doesn’t get caught by Romero.

The “he came back too soon” argument is tempting, but I feel it’s more of an ex post facto explanation for him losing. Maybe the “Cowboys” (Alex Oliveira and Donald Cerrone) win because they fight so often. Did Lorenz Larkin win because of those sweet Florida beaches? Imagine if he were stuck on the shores of the Indiana Dunes? Who knows how the fight would have played out?

People were already waiting to call Machida washed up before he even stepped into the cage with Romero. It’s understandable. He’s 37 and you already pointed out that he’s 1-3 in his last four fights. Look at those losses — Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold and Romero. One of them is the middleweight champion and the other two title contenders. Every sport suffers from the Ricky Bobby, “If you ain’t first, you’re last,” mentality, but I think that MMA fans/media subscribe to that mentality more so than others.

Every fighter is either a monster or a can. They’re either an eventual champion, or a total bum. People are already shipping Machida off to the same farm where they sent William Zabka. Don’t you think we’re overreacting a little bit? The Machida Era may be over, but there’s still some fight left in him.

Fowlkes: OK, yes, we are probably overreacting a little bit, but that’s what we do. For the record, I cited this quick turnaround when picking Romero, so it’s not like it’s entirely an ex post facto explanation.

Also, I see what you’re getting at with quick turnarounds by the UFC’s various “Cowboys,” but it’s one thing to come back quickly after a win, and quite another to jump back in there after a loss in which you were brutalized. Particularly at Machida’s age, I’d think he might want to take more time off to heal and recover.

But you’re right that it doesn’t have to be a situation where we choose only one explanation. It could be that he came back too quickly, fought in too small a cage, and fought one of the division’s scariest dudes.

What I wonder is, with this division currently overflowing with very scary dudes, where does Machida go from here? He keeps getting tough assignments from the UFC, which is maybe just what happens when you’re a former champ making good money to fight. Are we all better off if he becomes essentially a moneyweight, playing out what’s left of his career in “fun fights”?

Downes: Maybe a return to light heavyweight is in order. I know that might seem counter-intuitive since he’s just been knocked out, but it might be the answer. We don’t know how much weight he’s cutting to get down to 185 pounds, and tough cuts do make guys more susceptible to getting knocked out. At 205 pounds, he may be at a power disadvantage, but his footwork and that Machida elusiveness we hear so much about would serve him better against slower opponents.

No matter the weight class, though, Machida is still a top-10 talent. Michael Bisping, CB Dollaway, Costas Philippou, Dan Henderson and Robert Whittaker round out the 10-14 spots at middleweight. At light heavyweight, Mauricio Rua, Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Fabio Maldonado are in the top-15. It’s not time to slay this dragon yet.

He may still be able to compete at a high level, but as you said, what’s the point of “fun fights?” From a fan’s point of view, you get to see Machida do his karate thing against another aging star. Maybe it allows him to age as gracefully as possible in a brutal sport.

When you look at it from a fighter’s point of view, that idea gets a little bit trickier. Are you willing to admit that you can’t win a title? Can you get yourself out of bed every morning and train like you used to for moneyweight fights? Will you push yourself to the limit and make the same sacrifices you’ve been making for years for fights at lesser stakes? Only Machida can answer that question.

Few athletes are able to leave the game on their own terms. Whether it’s Chuck Liddell or Jerry Rice, athletes stay around too long. I don’t think Machida is at that point yet, but how will we know? There might be some warning signs now, but what’s the tipping point?

Fowlkes: Now, see, that seems like a question that is usually answered in ex post facto fashion. If Machida were to do it again (brother) with “Shogun” Rua and knock him right out, I could see us (well, some of us) freaking out over the Machida Era 2.0. Hell, I’d even watch him have another go-round with Rashad Evans, which seems just crazy enough to be something that the UFC almost has to book, if only so Bellator doesn’t get to it first.

You’re right, though. It’s one thing for me to say that Machida should stow the title talk and settle for getting paid. It might be tougher for him to find the motivation to continue if he can’t tell himself that he’s in it to be the best.

At the same time, let’s be honest here. Machida already lost to Weidman at middleweight and Jon Jones at light heavyweight. Even if Jones stayed gone and/or Daniel Cormier stayed the champ, I don’t see him claiming a UFC belt at either of his two preferred weight classes. His age and recent performances both make the prospect of even working his way back to the vicinity of a title shot a rapidly dimming hope.

Wouldn’t it be better to come to terms with that, regardless of what that does to his motivation? Or is a certain amount of self-deception essential to putting on the gloves and getting in there at all?

Downes: There is a certain amount of self-deception necessary. There are also elements of pride and ego. Think of every fighter that’s gotten their butts kicked in the first two rounds of a fight. Whether they’re overmatched or just had an off night, they know they’re not going to win. Yet they still walk out and answer the bell for the third round.

In some ways, it might be better for Machida to just admit where he stands in the overall picture and leverage some “fun fights.” As a former champion, though, chances are that it’s not in his nature. In fact, I would argue that it’s not in most people’s nature. How often do you run into someone who tells you, “You know, I’m pretty happy with middle management. Let’s be honest, I’m not the smartest guy around and my bosses really know what they’re doing. If anything, I’m overpaid!”

We can blame the optimism bias or just lack of self-awareness, but settling isn’t ideal for most people. And that’s what you’re asking Machida to do. You may have video evidence and precedent, but that’s not enough.  We have to give him the benefit of the doubt. The Machida era may end in tragedy, but it’s not there yet.

Ben Fowlkes is MMAjunkie and USA TODAY’s MMA columnist. Danny Downes, a retired UFC and WEC fighter, is an MMAjunkie contributor who also writes for UFC.com and UFC 360. Follow them on twitter at @benfowlkesMMA and @dannyboydownes.