The Question: Does Max Holloway Stand a Chance Against Khabib at UFC 223

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

UFC 223, in some ways, was supposed to be about moving on from Conor McGregor. The lightweight champion, last seen being battered by Floyd Mayweather in a boxing ring, had chosen to remove himself from active competition. The next best fighters in the division, Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov, were set to do battle to determine who deserved to call himself champion of the world.

That, though it was all true barely a week ago, feels like an ancient narrative.

Ferguson was simply walking, walking, and wreaked havoc on his knee, forcing his withdrawal from the bout.

McGregor, infamously now, has stamped his name on this event for all-time, flying across the Atlantic to wreak havoc on both the sport and a bus. 

The new main event features featherweight champion Max Holloway, on less than six days notice, attempting to wrest control of a new weight class and write his name into history. Nurmagomedov, the Dagestani wrestling machine, will try to capture some version of UFC gold for the first time. 

Putting aside hand trucks, flying glass and absurd thuggery for a moment, Bleacher Report senior writer Jonathan Snowden was joined by Fox Sports commentator Jimmy Smith, who will join Joe Rogan and Jon Anik on the call Saturday night, to discuss the fight, one quickly forgotten in the wake of Hurricane McGregor.

Jonathan Snowden: God bless Max Holloway. It takes some kind of courage to step into the cage against one of the world's most fearsome fighters with less than a week's notice. 

Obviously, this has to impact his game. Unless he's been secretly training for months to replace Ferguson in the case of a freak accident, he won't resemble the Holloway who's grown into one of the best fighters on the roster. 

What can we expect out of him Jimmy? Surely he can't hope to come in and execute his normal strategy right?

Jmmy Smith, the latest commentator to join the UFC team at Fox SportsPhoto courtesy of Fox Sports

Jimmy Smith: How can a fighter expect to compete in just six days? What to expect from Max Holloway? Max will have to make tactical adjustments to what he might normally do. You have to kind of make the game plan fit what you're actually ready for.  Can he physically be ready for this fight? No.

You're in whatever shape you are in when they give you the call. There's not much you can do in that intervening six days. What you can do is adjust your approach to the fight. 

There are two basic strategies a fighter can use. Number one is, pace themselves. Stay behind the jab, fight at an even pace and not spend your gas tank early so you can be ready for a long fight. Max hasn't trained to do this.

The second strategy is to throw the kitchen sink at your opponent in the first couple of rounds. Screw the long distance and get this guy out of there quickly.

And that's where, to me, Khabib has shown the most vulnerabilities. Walking forward, chin up, not really worried about the incoming strikes, confident he's going to wear a guy down and take him to the ground. But he tends to eat a lot of punches on his way in looking for that.

If Max puts every thing he has behind some of those early punches, he might find out what happens if he catches him on the chin. See of you can land that power shot early.

Snowden:  It's pretty exciting to think about a Holloway feeling the pressure to deliver his unique brand of violence early in the fight instead of taking his time and playing with his food. But, no matter how many tricks he has waiting for Khabib, he is clearly at a distinct disadvantage.

Holloway, even if he keeps himself in great shape, didn't get a training camp and certainly hasn't been preparing for a fighter like Khabib, a throwback to the kind of domineering grappler who used to dominate this sport.

Ferguson in action.John Locher/Associated Press

But that's a double edged sword for Khabib. He was preparing for Ferguson, an unorthodox fighter who doesn't have a ton in common with Holloway. He has no idea what Holloway is going to do, especially a Holloway whose back is up against the wall before the bell even rings. So they're even on that account.  

In some ways, strategically, Holloway might have the advantage. He knows exactly what Nurmagomedov is going to do—the same thing he always does. He's entirely predictable, willing to all but tell you what he intends and dare you to stop him. 

Smith: Khabib has never really shown much interest in what his opponent is going to do. His gameplan has always been the same. It doesn't really matter to him what the other guy wants to do.

He comes in with the same strategy either way. He's like a train coming at you. You can either get out of the way, or you can get the train off the tracks. And the only way to do that is check his chin early. You have to give him a reason to not come forward. 

You look at his takedown, it's not the slickest in the world. And he doesn't have the most crazy, explosive wrestling in the world. He gets in close, gets you against the fence, drops levels and goes for that takedown. But he doesn't set it up. It's kind of a grinding style.

Snowden: Phil Baroni, who trained with Khabib at the American Kickboxing Accademy, told me that it's his pressure that gets people. His technique isn't especially slick. But he just keeps coming, and sometimes that kind of persistence can take you far in this world.

Where he's exceptional is on the mat. Once he drags an opponent to the ground, you can practically see the light go out of their eyes. Is there anything worse than being underneath a great grappler, knowing in your heart you have almost no chance to do anything but try to survive?

Smith: When you're up against a real good top-control grappler, it's like drowning. You can't breathe and you're struggling with no result. You're drowning and everything you are doing to get to the surface gets you nowhere.

The worst thing is, you can kind of see daylight. Maybe you even pop your head out of the water and catch a breath or two. But then you get pulled back down again.

Nurmagomedov dominates once the fight hits the ground.John Locher/Associated Press

Snowden: This is a fight between two of the very best fighters in the world. But it's not the fight we wanted or expected.

UFC 223 was supposed to be about bringing order to the lightweight division. Can we still do that? Is the winner of this fight the top 155 pound fighter in the world?

And what about Conor McGregor, looming, omnipresent, over everything? (This conversation took place before Thursday infamous bus attack).

Smith: Personally, I think you've got to go with who's active. And I think that's between Ferguson and Khabib. With greatness, the rent is due every day.

No, McGregor didn't lose the belt. But when deciding who's best, you can only consider people who are actively fighting.

When the fight was Ferguson and Khabib, I think the winner had the right to call themselves the top 155 pounder in the sport. Ferguson dropping out and Holloway coming in late kind of muddies the water.

It all depends on the performances we see. If Khabib just rag dolls Holloway and dominates him in a one-sided beating, I think most people will see him as number one in the world.

If he struggles and barely beats a guy who he has weight on and only has six days notice, the fan perception will be that maybe he still has more to do to be considered the best in the world.

Jonathan Snowden covers combat sports for Bleacher Report.