Ever since Ronda Rousey debuted in UFC, nearly two years ago to the day, the big question has been if there is an opponent out there to really challenge her. It hasn't happened through four fights, but UFC 184 will be the most difficult task to date because of Cat Zingano's style.
Rousey's fighting game has evolved in such a short amount of time. She entered the sport as a one-trick pony, relying on her judo and armbar submission to overwhelm opponents. It's worked brilliantly because she was so good at that one thing, but it wasn't a sustainable long-term model.
The undefeated bantamweight champion's last two wins have come by knockout. Zingano's strength is in standing and trading punches with opponents, with five of her nine career wins and both victories in UFC coming via TKO due to strikes.
Rousey will enter as the heavy favorite (minus-750, per Odds Shark), as she should given her track record, but this is the first time where it's plausible to create a scenario where she loses. Here are the storylines to watch on Saturday night.
The Power Game
Rousey and Zingano are accomplished ground and submission experts, but they have taken the necessary steps to become more complete fighters throughout their careers.
The previous knock against Rousey is what would happen if she couldn't take an opponent down. While she hasn't needed much time to defeat Sara McMann and Alexis Davis (82 seconds combined), the UFC women's bantamweight champion has a style that is impossible to figure out.
Basically, Rousey throws all kind of caution to the wind. She explodes out of the corner at the start of each round wanting to hit something, as this synopsis of her bout with Davis shows, via Brian Martin of the Los Angeles Daily News:
"Nine seconds into the fight, Rousey hit Davis with a right hook to the temple, followed by a knee to the body, headlock and throw, and nine straight punches," Martin wrote. "Fight over. Second-fastest title victory in UFC history."
It's tempting for an opponent to try attacking Rousey in the same way, though it's not conducive to success. Zingano won't be physically or mentally overwhelmed by anything coming at her on Saturday, as noted by Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports:
When the UFC announced in late 2012 that it would adopt a women's division, it was a joyous day for Zingano. In the two-plus years since, she's been through her share of ordeals. She fought her way through an injury first to her right knee and then to her left.
She was an example of perseverance, dedication and commitment to Brayden (her son). Many athletes have to overcome one significant injury. A second one, just as the first has healed, isn't particularly common.
Rousey intimidates opponents with her ability to talk fast and loud before a match, then uses her speed and strength to intimidate inside the Octagon. Zingano, whose 70" reach is four inches longer than Rousey's, can overcome that speed by using her length to stay away from the champion.
By keeping a distance from Rousey, Zingano will be able to land some strikes. That's not to say it will be enough to win, or keep the champ off her for long, but this fight has the potential to reach the later rounds when it becomes a question of stamina.
Once stamina becomes a factor, all it takes is one solid punch to put an opponent down. Rousey and Zingano have the power to do anything they want.
The Defining Female MMA Fight
On a much bigger level than simply who wins, Rousey vs. Zingano is shaping up to be the fight that defines women's MMA. At the very least, it will be the biggest event headlined by two females in UFC history. That's not a long list at this point, but it is a huge step in the right direction.
Per Iole in a separate post on Yahoo Sports, UFC 184 is drawing a crowd the likes of which would normally turn out for one of the mega cards:
The Rousey-Zingano fight will attract a horde of celebrities who are coming out to watch what could be the match that, 10 years from now, 25 years from now, 50 years from now, is the one that all other women's bouts are judged against.
Just as major boxing matches are measured by the standard of Muhammad Ali (31-0, 25 KOs) against Joe Frazier (26-0, 23 KOs) on March 8, 1971, it's possible that future women's MMA fights will be judged against Rousey-Zingano.
Rousey has become one of the biggest stars in UFC, even translating her MMA fame into a part-time acting career in things like Expendables 3 and the upcoming Fast and Furious sequel, but the two cards she has headlined haven't been blockbusters.
According to MMA Payout, which cites buyrates from Wrestling Observer's Dave Meltzer, Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche at UFC 157 did 450,000 buys and Rousey vs. McMann at UFC 170 did 350,000 buys. Those are solid numbers, but more on the average side.
Granted, that still speaks well of Rousey's popularity, since women's fighting in UFC is still in its infancy and there hasn't been a strong No. 2 to market behind her.
Zingano isn't the same kind of crossover star as Rousey, but her resume speaks for itself. She doesn't want to go around yelling into microphones, offering an opinion on anything and everything.
Yet as Iole noted in his piece, this is just the third time in UFC history that a championship fight features two undefeated competitors. The last one was Rousey's bout with McMann, but UFC 184 feels different because Zingano is a better opponent and has a better fighting resume.
Whether this becomes the kind of fight that changes women's MMA won't be determined until after the fight is over, but all indications prior to the event suggest this is a special moment for females in the sport.
Who's Gonna Win?
All of the pre-fight storylines are great, but the only thing that matters is which fighter comes out on top. Zingano is the best and most well-rounded fighter Rousey has gone up against in her career. Her combination of size, length and speed are going to drag this out longer than the typical Rousey fight.
As noted by Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports, all of the things that Rousey loves to do are matched by what Zingano loves to do:
Rousey has showed a willingness to stand and bang on the feet with strikes. It's scored her two KO's recently, but that approach could also give Zingano a chance at changing the complexion of the fight.
Rousey's strikes are quick and strong, but she leaves her head in the same place, on the center line, while she throws them. She's eaten some solid shots to the head as a result, but walked through all the shots.
Eventually, one of those strikes might stun her. Zingano's striking may be good enough to do the trick.
Anytime your head is stationary in the fighting game, you are vulnerable to a knockout. Rousey isn't a perfect fighter, though her weaknesses are offset by power and aggression so they haven't cost her against inferior competition.
If there is an opponent who can defeat Rousey, it's Zingano.
However, while picking upsets are tempting because getting it right makes you look smart, Rousey is in that rarefied air in sports where you can't believe she will lose until it actually happens. She's strong, fights as well as anyone on the ground and uses her striking better now than she has at any point in her career.
Zingano will keep this fight interesting, and it will be the longest match of Rousey's career, but the champion will retain her crown.
Rousey wins via unanimous decision
