In-depth main-card breakdown: 'UFC Fight Night 115: Volkov vs. Struve'

Summary: Rotterdam’s main event is a heavyweight showdown between two of the tallest competitors in the organization as Alexander Volkov meets Stefan Struve.

A prospect who came up fighting for promotions such as M-1 and Bellator, Volkov now finds himself headlining his first UFC show in what will be his third appearance under the promotion’s banner. Standing in Volkov’s way is no easy task as the Russian steps behind enemy lines to face Struve.

A native of the Netherlands, Struve has since moved shop to South Florida to train under the care of Henri Hooft. Appearing to be in a mid-career renaissance after a rough couple of years, Struve has set his sights on the title; a win over a higher-ranked opponent would certainly help his case.

Starting off on the feet, we essentially have a battle between a diverse kickboxer and Dutch-style Thai boxer.

Coming from a karate background that emphasizes more on the sparring and sporting aspects (Kyokushin and Tsu Shin Gen), Volkov has done an excellent job of building a kickboxing game for MMA.

Taking more of a squared stance than traditional martial artists tend to do, Volkov opens up his offensive options from both sides as he still carries the in-and-out abilities typically associated with karate fighters. A diverse striker who is effective coming forward and off of the counter, Volkov will likely need to do both against his tallest test to date.

Coming in at 7-feet tall and tying Jon Jones for the longest reach at 84.5 inches, Struve comes in with a lot to like on paper. At his best, we have seen the Dutchman put his punches and kicks together seamlessly as he is still the only man to date who has stopped current champ Stipe Miocic.

Capable of hitting intercepting knees and punches off of the counter, Struve seems to do his best work when coming forward, something I suspect he will need to do to be victorious in this matchup. However, despite Struve’s reach and other on-paper advantages, he traditionally takes damage since defense has long been the Dutchman’s criticism.

Should Struve not show improvements to his head movement or overall defensive awareness, then he may be subject to the right hands of Volkov as the Russian is competent with it both coming forward or countering.

Where this fight’s momentum has the most potential of being shifted, is whenever these two hit the floor.

Although Volkov appears to be a competent purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he’s arguably too comfortable fighting off of his back. Opponents who have implemented a top-heavy pursuit have typically succeeded in grappling stanzas with the Russian, or at the very least, earned enough control time to win the round.

Against Struve, Volkov faces – in my opinion – a more talented grappler in almost every phase. Despite being associated with the high-risk guard pulling and submissions he would hit early on in his career, the depth of the Dutchman’s ground game has grown even further in recent years.

Improving his wrestling and takedown defense in close spaces, Struve has shown to work well from a front headlock whether he’s setting up chokes or floating to the back. Although Volkov has also demonstrated steady improvements to his wrestling abilities and get-up game, I suspect the Russian may draw the short straw in stanzas should he get sucked into Struve’s world for long.

Heavyweight intangibles aside, this is a close fight on paper no matter how you cut it. I suggest strong caution to any gamblers looking to play this one. That said, I cannot blame the oddsmakers for opening Volkov as a slight favorite over Struve.

Even though his conservativeness on the floor forces more questions than answers, the Russian is arguably more efficient on the feet. From his accuracy and output to his overall shot selection, Volkov’s slow-burn style could serve him well on the scorecards if he gets going in a five-round affair.

But, lest we forget, Struve is no slouch in the standing department either. This recent iteration of the “Skyscraper” may end up being Volkov’s stiffest striking test to date. When feeling in stride, Struve has shown strike well in and out of breaks as he looks to land uppercuts opportunistically –– something that has traditionally troubled Volkov.

And regardless of neither man being known to shoot a double-leg, Struve has shown time and time-again that he’s only a clinch transition away from changing the terms of a fight. Ultimately, I will be siding with the fighter who I feel has more weapons to win the battle, and I see Struve making a statement by scoring a submission before the final horn.

Official pick: Struve inside the distance

Official outcome: To be determined