For the first time in over five years, there will be a UFC light heavyweight title fight that does not involve Jon Jones, as Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson meet for the vacant 205-pound belt Saturday night in Las Vegas. Cormier already lost to Jones in January, and this was supposed to be Johnson's chance to take on the longtime champ.
But Jones was stripped of the title following a hit-and-run accident in late April, and Cormier was given this second chance against the surging Johnson. With Jones out of the picture, this event lacks some of the star power it might otherwise have had. Nevertheless, it is a matchup between two of the division's elite fighters.
The keys to victory for both fighters follow:
Cormier must use wrestling to control where the fight happens and to rough Johnson up
Cormier is perhaps the most decorated wrestler in the UFC. He was a two-time, undefeated national champion at the junior college level and reached the NCAA finals his senior year in college, only to lose to the legendary Cal Sanderson.
Beyond that, he was the U.S. national freestyle champion for most of the first decade of this century and was named captain of the 2008 Olympic team. He won a world title at the cadet level in high school.
Amateur wrestling styles do not always translate perfectly into MMA, where striking is added to the equation. But Cormier has scored highlight-reel takedowns against some very good MMA wrestlers during his career, including Josh Barnett and fellow Olympian Dan Henderson.
Johnson is a strong wrestler in his own right. He was also a National Junior College champ.
But the wrestling advantage is decisively in Cormier's favor. That gives him a tremendous tactical edge.
Johnson has dangerous punching power, but the best way to remove that kind of threat in MMA is to use wrestling. Cormier should be able to use his wrestling to consistently put Johnson on his back or against the cage, where Johnson's slugging prowess will be rendered irrelevant.
But Cormier can't be satisfied merely to pin Johnson against the cage or lie on top of him. When he gets in those dominant positions, he's got to put some hurt on Johnson. In the clinch, against the cage, he has to control Johnson's center line, so he can use dirty boxing to land uppercuts and short hooks.
When he gets on top of Johnson, he's got to stay busy as well, or risk having the fight stood back up. Cormier needs to use forearms, hammerfists and knees to the torso to soften Johnson up and open up a possible route to the submission.
Losing a one-sided fight to Jones in January had to be very disappointing for Cormier, so it's important in this fight that he avoids letting his emotions take control of him, which could lead him to unnecessarily dangerous exchanges.
Cormier has legitimate punching power and credible striking. But it's always a risk that an MMA fighter will fall in love with whatever his newest talent is, due to the quick progress he is making in that area. For Cormier, a wild exchange with Johnson is the riskiest place he can be.
So Cormier needs to rely on his base and embrace the grind in this fight
Cormier's wrestling should mean he spends the majority of the fight in a dominant position. So the longer the fight lasts, the more likely he is to win.
For Johnson, the most important thing in the fight will be to keep it standing
To my eyes, one of the most comparable fighters to Johnson is former light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell. Like Liddell, Johnson is an explosive striker, but with a strong college wrestling background that allows him to use wrestling defensively, to keep a fight standing.
Johnson has to stuff Cormier's takedowns. But beyond that, he needs to do it in a way that allows him to make enough space to aggressively counterstrike.
Johnson has the skills to win that kind of fight, as he demonstrated against Phil Davis, another elite amateur wrestler. Still, Cormier is a better wrestler and a bigger banger than Davis. Against Cormier, Johnson has to be wary of getting caught by a big shot in return.
While Johnson needs to be looking for a fight-ending punch or kick, he's got to be careful about overcommitting to a wild strike. He has to be tactical with his striking and look for punches and kicks that will land at a high percentage.
A wild swing and miss against Cormier is all that the former Olympian will need to land a brutal takedown. If Johnson misses with a punch and leaves an entire side of his body expose to Cormier, he will go for a ride and land with a heavy thud.
There are more tactical advantages for Cormier in this fight, but Johnson has the sort of explosive power that can end things extremely quickly. This fight won't be a non-stop slugfest. Both men are too heavy-fisted for that.
Expect moments of strategic chess-playing in this fight. But there is also a lot of potential for things to end in an explosive hurry.
