UFC on FX 8 preview: Luke Rockhold's chance to cut to front of middleweight line

Luke Rockhold‘s UFC debut often has felt more like a political campaign than your usual MMA promotional tour. Vitor Belfort‘s use of testosterone-replacement therapy has provided him an easy platform – a reason to lobby for his belief that fighters should fight without any type of possible enhancement – and he hasn’t shied away from expressing himself.

Plus, nobody will let him forget Belfort is still on the stuff.

Putting aside the questions about whether Belfort is right or wrong for dosing himself with doctor-prescribed testosterone, there’s the question of what happens for the winner of Saturday’s UFC on FX 8 headliner. With Chris Weidman set to face middleweight champ Anderson Silva, should Rockhold (10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) or Belfort (22-10 MMA, 11-6 UFC) get the next shot?

UFC on FX 8 takes place at Arena Jaragua in Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event’s main card airs live on FX following prelims on FUEL TV and Facebook.

A year ago, the answer would have said no. Hector Lombard was the hottest prospect in the 185-pound division, Chael Sonnen was queuing up for his rematch with Silva, and the octagon was still out of bounds to Strikeforce fighters. Aside from some fantasy matchmaking, Rockhold wasn’t a part of the conversation, and Belfort was still rebuilding after a beatdown from Silva a year before.

Now that Strikeforce is kaput, Lombard is contemplating welterweight, top contender Michael Bisping is back on redemption road, and just about every other viable contender has been squashed by Silva, it’s a different story.

Belfort, of course, is one of the champ’s victims (via front kick to the jaw), and most observers would say a rematch with Silva probably won’t ever be sellable. That leaves former Strikeforce champ Rockhold as the next guy. With an impressive victory over Belfort, he should get the nod to fight for the belt. But he also could be another fight away if co-main-event fighter Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza wins impressively against Chris Camozzi. That would set up a rematch of a fight two years ago that earned Rockhold his first major title.

In any event, the road to gold gets shorter for Rockhold if he’s able to stop “The Phenom.” A slight favorite in current betting lines, he’s the youth to Belfort’s experience and has won his past nine fights. The depth of Belfort’s opposition lends credence to the slim margins, as does his recent dispatching of Bisping, another younger fighter who was supposed to end the old-timer’s campaign for another crack at Silva. Rockhold also hasn’t fought in 10 months. But he might be a little undervalued considering his skills.

The 28-year-old American Kickboxing Academy fighter is 3 inches taller than Belfort at 6-foot-3, and he’s apt at using kicks to keep distance from and damage opponents. He defends 70 percent of takedowns attempted, according to official UFC stat provider FightMetric, and 63 percent of the strikes attempted against him. Meanwhile, he lands more than three significant strikes each minute he fights, which is double the output of the heavy-handed Belfort.

Rockhold has confessed that standing in range of Belfort’s bombs is not the smart thing to do, so it’s likely he’ll pick away from the outside before closing the distance for a takedown. It must always be noted that save for the occasional armbar attempt, Belfort is largely passive when put on his back. So the favorite’s best option is to cut angles and find a way into the clinch, where he can put the older Belfort against the cage and work for a takedown. Taken into later rounds, it’s a strategy that’s consistently sacked Belfort.

Per the usual, Belfort is at his best in early frames when he’s allowed to charge in and fire away with combinations. He just needs to land one big shot to change the shape of the fight, and he may be one of the best finishers in the sport. There’s ample incentive to do so on Saturday night: The UFC says he needs a half dozen or so knockouts to earn another shot at Silva.

That means Rockhold is the more viable contender in the near term, but as fans have recently seen, getting the stamp of approval by beating the veteran is no easy task.

Other UFC on FX 8 main-card bouts:

Chris Camozzi (19-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC) vs. Ronaldo Souza (17-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC): Originally a fight between the surging Constantinos Philippou and Souza, an injury forced the former to withdraw from the event. That opened the door for Camozzi, who’s won his past four outings. He’s a huge underdog against former champ Souza, who’s ranked eighth in USA TODAY Sports/MMAjunkie.com’s MMA middleweight rankings and makes his octagon debut. Souza, a decorated grappler, has proven himself not only a danger on the mat, but a sharp striker when the action stays on its feet. He’ll be forced to vie with the lanky Camozzi’s knees, which come from distance and in the clinch. But he should retain a significant speed advantage, and if the fight goes to the ground, Camozzi is in deep trouble.

Rafael dos Anjos (18-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (14-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC): This is a meeting of two lightweight standouts that came about when Dunham took offense to an Internet critic’s assumption that he would get hammered by dos Anjos and requested the bout. Both are known as tough, durable fighters, but Dunham may have the edge if the fight turns into an all-out slugfest. He cemented his reputation as a never-say-die fighter in a losing effort against T.J. Grant, and then outpointed the massive Gleison Tibau. Dos Anjos might, in fact, be better served by testing Dunham’s ground game, but the longer the fight goes, the more the odds go against him.

Rafael Natal (15-4-1 MMA, 3-2-1 UFC) vs. Joao Zeferino (13-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC): Submission grappler turned MMA fighter Natal is still a work in progress, and he’s struggled to pick up momentum in the middleweight division. His head-kick-knockout loss to Andrew Craig broke a two-fight win streak, but he recently managed to rebound with a submission win over Sean Spencer. In Zeferino, he gets a newcomer who owns a seven-fight win streak but hasn’t faced top-tier competition. It should be his fight to lose, but Zeferino, who’s submitted three of his past four opponents, shouldn’t be counted out as a dark horse.

The full UFC on FX 8 card includes:

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)

• Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold
• Chris Camozzi vs. Ronaldo Souza
• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham
• Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 6 p.m. ET)

• Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz
• Mike Rio vs. Francisco Trinaldo
• John Cholish vs. Gleison Tibau
• Michel Prazeres vs. Paulo Thiago
• Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos
• Roger Hollett vs. Fabio Maldonado

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 4:30 p.m. ET)

• Azamat Gashimov vs. John Lineker
• Chris Cariaso vs. Jussier Formiga
• Jeremy Larsen vs. Lucas Martins

For the latest on UFC on FX 8, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of the site.