UFC on FOX 29 main-card breakdown: Is Israel Adesanya for real? Can Cortney Casey prove odds right?

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC on FOX 29’s top bouts, and today, we look at the first two main-card bouts.

UFC on FOX 29 takes place Saturday at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Ariz., near Phoenix. The card airs on FOX following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

• UFC on FOX 29 main-event breakdown: Dustin Poirier or. Justin Gaethje in high-speed chase?
• UFC on FOX 29 co-main breakdown: Alex Oliveira could cause Carlos Condit problems

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Israel Adesanya (12-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC)

Israel Adesanya

Staple info:

• Height: 6’4? Age: 28 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80?
• Last fight: TKO win over Rob Wilkinson (Feb. 10, 2018)
• Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (26-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 12 KO victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good base and balance
+ Shows serviceable counter grappling
^ Good getup urgency

Marvin Vettori (12-3-1 MMA, 2-1-1 UFC)

Marvin Vettori

Staple info:

• Height: 6’0? Age: 24 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74?
• Last fight: Majority draw with Omari Akhmedov (Dec. 30, 2017)
• Camp: Kings MMA (California)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Amateur boxing experience (8-0)
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 2 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking
^ Puts together punches well
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ From top or bottom

Summary:

In an intriguing middleweight matchup, Israel Adesanya takes on Marvin Vettori.

A professional kickboxer whose highlight reels have already captured the imagination of many, Adesanya introduced himself to UFC stage earlier this year in Australia, dispatching of Rob Wilkinson in the second round. Now, tasked with another tough test before him, the man who fancies himself “The Last Stylebender” has a chance to make a statement to the American audiences on FOX.

Seeking to spoil that party is Vettori, an Italian standout who has taken his skills to the U.S. Coming into his fifth fight with the organization, Vettori will be looking to use this opportunity under the spotlight to announce an arrival of his own.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two fighters who use pressure in different ways.

A more traditional pressure-fighter, Vettori, the southpaw, comes forward in a similar spirit to his Kings MMA stablemates. Working under the teachings of muay Thai master Rafael Cordeiro, the Italian workhorse presses into exchanges with a strong sense of himself, striking with real intent and power.

Like any good southpaw, Vettori will competently put together left crosses and right hooks, mixing in crushing left body kicks to the liver side when the target becomes available. Although pressure will likely be the Italian’s friend against Adesanya, his aggression inherently makes him hittable in exchanges.

Against a striker like Adesanya, Vettori could get his defenses severely audited should he not commit to his causes.

Introduced to martial arts at a young age, Adesanya started spreading his proverbial wings in the kickboxing arena, showing his skills to international audiences spanning from his adopted home of New Zealand to a brief stint in China. The Nigerian-born fighter also dabbled in professional boxing while earning himself a 5-1 record and two tournament titles in the process.

A creative martial artist, Adesanya earns his moniker with his creative striking flow. Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to establish his reads and set up his shots.

When feeling in stride, the 28-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether it be powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.

Although Adesanya is undoubtedly the better striker on paper, we have seen many skilled strikers falter inside the octagon before, which makes me wonder how the New Zealand native will deal with the durable Vettori.

I will also be interested to see how things play out in the clinch, a place where the striking stanzas may end up taking the two.

A gateway to potential grappling exchanges, Vettori will probably be treating the clinch as his friend. The Italian’s presence is sturdy inside of this space, whether he is unloading hard knees or looking to change his level. However, if he intends on grounding Adesanya, he will likely need to demonstrate another level to his wrestling.

Dating back to his first professional MMA bouts back in 2012, Adesanya was already showing a surprising amount of clinch savvy, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of over and underhook leverage.

Since then, Adesanya has appeared only to improve his defensive grappling, smartly fightings grips and protecting his hips, typically while using the cage for assistance. Coupled with his natural base and balance, the six-year pro has proven increasingly difficult to ground.

That said, should Vettori get this to the mat via a takedown or caught kick, then the temperature of this contest will immediately start to rise.

A solid transitional grappler, Vettori wields a well-rounded game. From strong strikes and passes from topside to his deceptively slick guard, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt will provide threats from multiple areas that Adesanya will need to be aware of when mixing it up with Vettori.

The oddsmakers and public seem to fairly set on their opinions, listing Adesanya -265 and Vettori +225 as of this writing.

I can see why Adesanya is favored to win, but I still believe the line should be much closer given that Vettori is a credible threat. From Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves to Bryan Barberena vs. Sage Northcutt, we have seen durable southpaw pressure-fighters spoil the hype trains of many talents throughout the UFC timeline, and shouldn’t be entirely surprised if an upset occurs here.

If Vettori shows in the first round that he can take Adesanya’s shots and still move forward confidently, then the former pro kickboxer could be in for a long, grinding affair. Ultimately, I’m still not sold on Vettori’s ability to defend what will be coming his way, nor am I sure he has the offensive wrestling chops to put this fight where he needs to. The pick is Adesanya to earn himself an attritive second-round stoppage after extinguishing the threats of a valiant and game Vettori.

Official pick: Adesanya inside the distance