UFC on FOX 27 co-main event breakdown: Can Andre Fili pull off mild upset of Bermudez?

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the UFC on FOX 27 co-main event.

UFC on FOX 27 takes place Saturday at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., and the main card airs on FOX following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

• UFC on FOX 27 main-event breakdown: Will Derek Brunson avenge his loss to ‘Jacare’ Souza?

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Dennis Bermudez (16-7 MMA, 9-5 UFC)

Dennis Bermudez

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6? Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 66?
• Last fight: Decision loss to Darren Elkins (July 22, 2017)
• Camp: Long Island MMA (New York)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” season 14 finalist
+ NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good combination striker
^ Variates levels/punctuates with leg kicks
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Good knees and dirty boxing
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Superb hips and balance
+ Scrambles well/positionally aware

Andre Fili (17-5 MMA, 5-4 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 27 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 74?
• Last fight: Decision win over Artem Lobov (Oct. 21, 2017)
• Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Piano key belt in “Joe-jitsu”
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork
^ Shifts stance and takes angles
+ Accurate hooks and crosses
+ Dangerous head kicks
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Solid hip and grip awareness
+ Good takedown ability
+ Active and attacking guard
^ Looks to sweep or stand

Summary:

The co-main event on FOX features a fun featherweight matchup between Dennis Bermudez and Andre Fili.

A perrenial contender and all-action fighter at 145 pounds, Bermudez will be looking halt a two-fight skid and get back on track with a win here. Attempting to crash that party is Fili, a staple of Team Alpha Male who is coming off of a win over Artem Lobov in October.

Starting off on the feet, we have a pairing of two offense-first fighters who seldom seek shelter.

Whether Bermudez is facing Jeremy Stephens, Rony Jason, or even in his epic battle with Matt Grice, you can see the unrelenting will and genetic hard-wiring to move forward that is reminiscent to a prime Roberto Duran.

Employing aggressive doses of in-and-out footwork, Bermudez puts together his punch combinations smoothly, as he often punctuates them with hard leg kicks. Consistently striking his way inside, the Long Islander loves working in of the clinch, unabashedly uncorking uppercuts and knees when available.

Although Bermudez has shown improvements to his head positioning and overall defense, his aggression, like Fili, is also what usually gets him off course and into trouble with counter strikes being his common culprit. Should Bermudez get caught here, it could be more costly than usual given the aggression of his counterpart.

Fili, an action-fighter who prioritizes damaging offense, has done his fair share of developing since hitting the UFC scene in 2013. Demonstrating evolved footwork, the 27-year-old will consistently take angles on his way in and out of space, incorporating a healthy amount of stance shifts in the process.

Working off of an improved jab, Fili snaps off shots that serve as a flint lighter, sparking exchanges that open up offensive lanes for traffic. Although Fili has always carried fight-ending head kicks and crosses, I could see his underrated hook – especially when thrown as a check – producing results against his aggressive dance partner.

With striking stanzas feeling like a coin flip on the feet, I suspect that wrestling and grappling efforts will influence this fight.

Despite Bermudez having the on-paper advantages in this department, he likely will have to work hard for whatever he gets since Fili is no slouch when it comes to counter-grappling.

An underrated wrestler, Fili displays solid defensive fundamentals from his framing to his hip and grip awareness. Offensively, Fili quietly carries an effective double-leg takedown, which he uses both coming forward and in a reactionary fashion.

Nevertheless, Fili will still be facing one of the best wrestlers the division has to offer, making any potential offense for him here difficult.

Even when tasked against another talented wrestler in Tatsuya Kawajiri, Bermudez only gave one official takedown early and got right back to his feet with immediacy. Bermudez utilized high and tight whizzers to support his already stellar base and balance. Bermudez miraculously bellied down, despite being driven into the fence by the Japanese grappling specialist, and made him pay with punches from his posted position.

Considering Bermudez’s wrestling acumen, backed by his stout and sturdy frame, he likely will be the one who is deciding the majority of whens and wheres in this fight. Still, the 14-fight UFC vet cannot afford to make any of his previous mental lapses in this position since Fili is competent from all areas, including off of his back.

Though Bermudez shows improved hand-fighting and defensive posture to stay safe from submissions, Fili is not one to rest or accept positions.

When pitted against other positional players like Hacran Dias, Fili did a great job of getting back to his feet whenever he wasn’t able to halt the takedown. And when Dias (or others) have gotten into dominant positions, Fili stayed composed, timing his bridges and explosions to create scrambles that allowed him back to his feet. Needless to say, Fili will need to be relentless in this area to contend with Bermudez.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be tentatively decided on this bout, listing Bermudez -155 and Fili +135.

Bermudez is the deserved favorite, and I certainly could see his high-volume approach of striking combinations into takedown transitions checking off rounds en route to a competitive, but clear, decision win. That said, Bermudez’s patented pressuring ways and willingness to go to war have inherently opened him open to damage over the years, and some even have questioned his chin because of it.

I’ve been a longtime fan of the Long Islander’s style, but I suspect that it may not bode well against a more potent offense-first fighter in Fili. I see Bermudez winning this fight – all the way up to the point at which he gets caught coming in. The pick is Fili by an upset knockout in the second round.

Official pick: Fili inside the distance

For more on UFC on FOX 27, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.