UFC-Orlando breakdown: Betting advice, possible prop bets and fantasy studs

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC on FOX 28’s top bouts. Today, we look at betting and fantasy options for the card.

UFC on FOX 28 takes place Saturday at Amway Center in Orlando, Fla., and it airs on FOX following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC on FOX 28 main-event breakdown: Is Josh Emmett a live ‘dog against Jeremy Stephens?
• UFC on FOX 28 co-main event breakdown: Is Jessica Andrade’s pressure too much for Tecia Torres?
• UFC on FOX 28 main-card breakdown: Ilir Latifi’s power or Ovince Saint Preux’s athleticism?

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (Feb. 23, 2018).

Dan’s plays

Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

• Jessica Andrade/Tecia Torres over 2.5 (-260)

Summary: My recommended parlay pieces are typically my most confident picks (within a reasonable price range) that could serve as potential legs for whatever play you’re trying to put together.

Given the limited selection of reasonable chalk, I ended up taking a total that I liked on this card; I elected to go with Jessica Andrade/Tecia Torres “Over 2.5 rounds” (-260).

With eight of 10 female fights hitting their “overs” in 2018, this betting trend continues to cash for those looking for chalky parlay legs. And, as I detail in my co-main event breakdown, I believe that this matchup has a high probability of heading the same way.

Torres and Andrade are both durable fighters who know how to recover. Their ability to dictate positions inside the cage usually allows them to stay safe and each have improved their submission defense and ground games.

Although I’m siding with Andrade’s pressure and power to win the day, the Brazilian – though heavier-handed than the bulk of her contemporaries – is still not a one-shot knockout artist. Coupled with the fact that all but one of Torres’ fights have gone to decision, and I see the over as being the safest angle of play.

Straight plays:

• Angela Hill -165 (1.5 units)

Summary: For my straight plays, I typically like to look for fighters – from underdogs to reasonable favorites – who I feel have a solid chance and price tag.

Between my analysis on this card’s matchups and subsequent chalky picks, I decided to target one of the lines that I feel is slightly less volatile than the rest; I elected to go with Angela Hill (7-4 MMA, 2-4 UFC), who faces Maryna Moroz (8-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC).

This line is a bit tighter than I think it should be, but it also still very playable. Ever since Moroz stormed the scene with a memorable upset victory over Joanne Calderwood in 2015, she has gained consistent respect from oddsmakers. But in going back and objectively looking at her results since, I’m not sure that the confidence is justified.

Outside of her opportunistic armbars and spunky punch combinations that often come up short, I haven’t seen the development of connecting pieces I had initially hoped for from Moroz. Whereas Hill, a fighter who was thrown to the wolves early in her MMA career, has quietly made improvements in the past couple of years.

The Alliance MMA product stays long by utilizing her frame and unique movement, executing well from the angles she creates. Coming from a muay Thai base, I see Hill’s leg kicks paying dividends against the boxing-centric stance of Moroz. Coupled with her clinch game and improved grappling, and I see Hill having quiet value here.

Props:

• Alan Jouban “Inisde the distance” -125 (1 unit)

Summary:

For my lone prop play, I decided to take an angle on the matchup between Alan Jouban (15-6 MMA, 6-4 UFC) and [autotag]Ben Saunders (21-8-2 MMA, 9-5 UFC), a fight that I see producing a finish.

Both men are excellent martial artists and entertaining fighters, but they’re also known for their do-or-die sensibilities. And despite feeling that Saunders may have a few more weapons in his arsenal to get the job done, I can’t help but see the speed and sharpness of Jouban’s striking winning the day.

Jouban, the southpaw, throws sharp counters and plays particularly well off of kicks. Given that Saunders tends to keep an upright posture and has shown his fair share of weathering, I could see Jouban’s liver kick coming to light in this fight.

Jouban is no stranger to taking damage himself, I just believe his speed and athleticism should give him the edge in this gunfight. For the current listing price and surrounding options, I feel that this is one of the more playable angles I feel comfortable with.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

• Sam Alvey vs. Marcin Prachnio
• Rany Yahya vs. Russell Doane
• Eric Shelton vs. Alex Perez
• Albert Morales vs. Manny Bermudez