UFC-London co-main breakdown: What's changed since first Manuwa-Blachowicz encounter?

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 127’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC Fight Night 127 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London, and the card streams entirely on UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

• UFC-London main-event breakdown: Can Alexander Volkov get Fabricio Werdum to fight his fight?

Jimi Manuwa (17-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC)

Jimi Manuwa.

Staple info:

• Height: 6’1? Age: 38 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 79?
• Last fight: KO loss to Volkan Oezdemir (July 29, 2017)
• Camp: Allstars Training Center (Sweden/UK)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 15 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Accurate left hook
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Diverse kicking game
^ Works well off of lead leg
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved wrestling ability

Jan Blachowicz (21-7 MMA, 4-4 UFC)

Jan Blachowicz.

Staple info:

• Height: 6’2? Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78?
• Last fight: Decision win over Jared Cannonier (Dec. 16, 2017)
• Camp: WCA Fight Team (Poland)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ KSW light heavyweight title
+ Muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Serviceable jab
+ Dangerous uppercuts and hooks
+ Will switch stances
^ Favors liver kicks from southpaw
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved wrestling ability
+/- Willingness to fight from back

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC London features a rematch between light heavyweights Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz.

Manuwa, the native Englishman, is coming off a crushing defeat to recent title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. Looking to shake off the setback, Manuwa will undoubtedly be returning with a vengeance, as well as an agenda to move forward.

Whereas Blachowicz, who has seemingly struggled to keep a record north of .500 in the UFC, finds himself in top form, currently riding his first winning streak since joining the organization. But before he can make it three straight, the Polish fighter will have to go behind enemy lines to meet a familiar face.

In their first meeting back in April of 2015, we saw a somewhat odd performance from each man. Manuwa, the victor of the bout, was coming off of his first career defeat to Alexander Gustafsson and would subsequently apply a more conservative approach to the contest. Despite dictating a decent amount of the traffic on the feet, Manuwa would consistently close into clinch space for control, a place where the Englishman has proven to be deceptively strong.

Blachowicz, on the other hand, was coming off an impressive debut win over current light heavyweight contender Ilir Latifi. And even though the Polish fighter would find some success standing with Manuwa, he ultimately had trouble getting off on his backfoot and ended up having to succeed clinches against the cage because of it.

It ended up being somewhat of a lackluster affair that saw each man have to work things out physically as well as mentally, but Manuwa earned the clear decision based on his control time and overall dictation. Since then, each fighter has made strides as martial artists in different ways.

Blachowicz has gotten a better grasp of his footwork and seems to be more flexible when met with forceful threats, but I ultimately still believe he does his best work when being aggressive.

A persistent stalker when he wants to be, Blachowicz will unabashedly come forward in combination, often shifting in the process to unleash his patented liver kick from the southpaw stance. An effective counter striker in the heat of combat, he packs a mean uppercut-hook return that he keeps on a hair-trigger, something we saw in his last fight against Jared Cannonier – one of the faster, sharper strikers at light heavyweight.

Blachowicz also employs a stiff and serviceable jab that saw some light in his first fight with Manuwa, but he’ll need to be careful on going to it too often here, especially using the same timing. Although Manuwa is associated strongly with his striking (and rightfully so), many forget that the Englishman started training late in life and is still getting better.

In his fight with Ovince Saint Preux, we saw Manuwa make his opponent pay for lackadaisical strike retractions, following Saint Preux’s jabs back with powerful right crosses over the top. Should Blachowicez allow Manuwa to find his rhythm early, then the Pole could find himself on the losing end of stanzas.

The more opportunistic tactician, Manuwa will utilize pressure through feints to force his opponents into uncomfortable exchanges. Despite often throwing his strikes in no more than one-to-two at a time, Manuwa arguably makes up for this with the accuracy of his arsenal.

Mixing his targets up appropriately, the Englishman conducts traffic brilliantly off of his lead side. Whether he is variating his left hooks from body-to-head or sneaking in switch kicks, there is no soft side to Manuwa; everything he throws has a potency to it.

If striking stanzas don’t produce immediate results for either party, then I suspect that the outcome of this fight may be influenced by wrestling efforts.

Both fighters have quietly made improvements in this area, which will make things interesting. Given the dynamic of the matchup and each of their history, I believe that Blachowicz will be the man who has more motive to get this to the floor.

Since their first meeting, Blachowicz has found a full-time training camp in Warsaw, a place where the Pole has been able to polish his wrestling. Now, Blachowicz appears much more competent and comfortable when changing levels and setting up shots.

Blachowicz also does well when having to chain his shot attempts together, a skill that earned him a takedown against noted wrestler Devin Clark. Upgrades aside, Blachowicz will need to be on point with his setups and timing if he plans on grounding his current foe.

Manuwa, who has moved to Allstars Training Center in Sweeden for camps since their first fight, has also improved his wrestling. The Englishman has always been deceptively strong in the clinch, but his takedown defense and wrestling fundamentals seemed to have taken a step up.

That said, it’s difficult to get a solid feel for Manuwa’s overall skills and improvements given what has traditionally been a low sample-size of fight footage and situations. Still, the Englishman shows an excellent sprawl in the open and strong hips to boot.

If Blachowicz is able to get Manuwa down, then he should have the on-paper advantage. The Pole is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who knows how to play positions well from topside. Blachowicz’s willingness to fight from his back has cost him in the past, but I don’t think that will have too much play in this fight given Manuwa’s reluctance to pursue ground offense.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be forming their opinions, listing Manuwa -200 and Blachowicz +170 as of this writing.

I believe that Manuwa is the deserved favorite, but I also think that the betting line is a bit wider than it needs to be. Manuwa did win their first meeting, but that bout is not the most reliable sample size given each man’s performance in that fight and their improvements since.

Furthermore, I’m not sure if Manuwa will be able to control clinch exchanges as uncontested as before, which means he will likely need to either outwork Blachowicz for three rounds or knockout his durable foe before the final bell. And though those are also probable outcomes, I don’t think it’s as sure a thing as the current odds suggest.

Not only does Blachowicz appear to be a run that involves more than momentum, but he also seems to be putting together all of his skills like he never has before. It’s a close fight no matter how you cut it, but if Manuwa can’t find a way to stop the battle-tested Pole, then I see Blachwociz’s more well-rounded approach upsetting the Englishman on close scorecards.

Official pick: Blachowicz by decision