UFC Fight Night 128 breakdown: Betting advice, possible prop bets and fantasy studs

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 128’s top bouts, and today, we look at betting and fantasy options for the card.

UFC Fight Night 128 takes place at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J. The card will air on FOX Sports 1 following an early prelim on UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC Fight Night 128 main-event breakdown: The Kevin Lee tool that could foil Edson Barboza
• UFC Fight Night 128 co-main-event breakdown: Will Cub Swanson make Frankie Edgar pay for quick turnaround
• UFC Fight Night 128 main-card breakdown: Can Jim Miller pull the upset for his home Jersey fans?

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (April 21, 2018).

Dan’s plays

Straight plays:

• Keita Nakamura +185 (1 unit)

Summary: For my straight plays, I typically like to look for fighters – from underdogs to reasonable favorites – who I believe have a solid chance and price tag.

For my first and lone straight play, I decided to take a shot on Keita Nakamura (33-8-2-1 MMA, 3-5 UFC), who faces Tony Martin (12-4 MMA, 4-4 UFC) in the lone UFC Fight Pass prelim.

Although I can see an argument for Martin being favored to win, I feel that Nakamura is a fighter who usually gets little love from oddsmakers. The Japanese veteran opened initially north of a 2-1 underdog and has since been bet down by the public, probably because they, too, see how close this contest could be.

Martin may have more of an athletic upside to go along with the positive trend in moving up in weight, but this is still a tricky matchup for his first fight up a division. Many of men, especially at welterweight, have gone into the octagon expecting to overpower Nakamura, only to be surprised by his deceptive strength and skills.

A crafty southpaw who throws all the staples from check-hooks to liver kicks, I expect Nakamura to test Martin’s striking upgrades. Martin, though showing consistent and steady improvements, has had mixed success against southpaws, going 1-2 against them in UFC competition.

Furthermore, Martin tends to make his money through clinch grappling engagements against the fence – a space where Nakamura thrives. Should the Japanese fighter find his flow from the bodylock to the back, then Martin, who has fallen short to grappling specialists in the past, could get outwitted by the wily veteran here. Even at the reduced price of +185, I still believe that Nakamura is worth the stab.

Props:

• Edson Barboza/Kevin Lee “won’t go the distance” -185 (2 units)

Summary:

For my second prop play, I decided to take an angle on the headliner between Edson Barboza (19-5 MMA, 13-5 UFC) and Kevin Lee (16-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC), a fight that I have a hard time seeing go the distance.

As I detail in my main-event breakdown, this is a classic styles matchup where both fighters hold the other’s proverbial kryptonite in their back pockets.

Lee possesses the wrestling and ability to apply grappling pressure that has traditionally unraveled his Brazilian counterpart, and could replicate the success of others empathically if Barboza fails to stop him by the third round. That said, Lee – who has shown that he is not beyond getting stunned in a fight – could open himself up to harsh weather with the aggression that he will likely need to be applying.

Coupled with how each fighter typically handles similar style matchups, I suspect that this battle will be sorted by the fourth round. For the moderate price of -185, I believe that this prop line holds value, whether you’re at a house that allows you to play it straight up, or possibly even as parlay fodder.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

• Merab Dvalishvili vs. Ricky Simon
• Corey Anderson vs. Patrick Cummins
• Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Luan Chagas