UFC Fight Night 123 main-event breakdown: Can Brian Ortega get a breakout win against Cub Swanson?

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 123’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at the main event.

UFC Fight Night 123 takes place Saturday at Save Mart Center in Fresno, Calif., and it airs on FS1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.

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Cub Swanson (25-7 MMA, 10-3 UFC)

Cub Swanson

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8? Age: 34 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70?
• Last fight: Decision win over Artem Lobov (April 22, 2017)
• Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Stance shifts and angle awareness
+ Creative offensive flow
^ From boxing to cartwheel kicks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Improved hips, frames and fundamentals
+ Solid transitional grappling
^ Floats positions and scrambles well

Brian Ortega (12-0-1 MMA, 4-0-1 UFC)

Brian Ortega

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8? Age: 26 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69?
• Last fight: Submission win over Renato Moicano (July 29, 2017)
• Camp: Black House (California)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ RFA featherweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork
^ Will switch stances
+ Busy and building striker
^ Puts together punches well
+ Accurate knees
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Superb submission chains
+ Dangerous guard game
^ Active hips and deceptive strikes

Summary:

The main event in Fresno features a fun featherweight fight betweenCub Swanson and Brian Ortega.

A longtime staple of the division who is riding a four-fight winning streak, Swanson will be looking to cement his standing as a top contender by attempting to turn away another young lion.

An undefeated fighter who is coming off his fourth official UFC victory, Ortega will be taking on the biggest challenge of his budding career when he steps into Saturday night’s main event.

Don’t let the young face fool you; there is more to Ortega than meets the eye.

Although he will be at an experience disadvantage to Swanson, fighting is something that Ortega grew up doing. From learning how to strike and grapple early on, Ortega found himself competing in jiu-jitsu and pankration matches – a tool that was helpful in combating his troubled youth.

Under the guidance of the Gracies who took him in, Ortega was on the inevitable fast track, teaching at the Torrence, Calif., academy while pursuing his competitive passions in MMA. Accruing experience on the regional scene (which included a couple of five-round affairs), Ortega has seemingly grown at an even more rapid rate since entering the UFC’s sink-or-swim environment.

Despite being known for his dangerous ground game, Ortega has demonstrated measurable strides in his striking. Consistently keeping light on his toes, he stays ready to throw or move with his opposition, steadily setting the temperature to apply his pressuring approach.

Working behind a healthy dose of feints, Ortega will flick out jabs from either stance, almost like a flint lighter for the fires that he is attempting to start.

Once Ortega gets going, he puts together his punches nicely, variating well to the body while punctuating his presence with accurate uppercuts and knees. And considering the dipping propensities of his opponent, I suspect the knees and uppercuts of Ortega may be worth watching for in this fight.

Still, Ortega will have his work cut out for him come Saturday.

One of the organization’s more prolific offensive atists, Swanson shows all the attributes you would want in an action-fighter. Although his movements may seem sporadic at times, there is a method to Swanson’s madness, and he seldom moves against momentum.

Whether he’s shifting his stance to throw liver kicks from southpaw or darting off of his favored lead right hand, Swanson is ultimately looking to initiate the reactions that will allow for his opposition to open themselves up inadvertently.

Working with Joel Diaz for many years, Swanson’s boxing influence shines through in his followup punches and the way that he variates them brilliantly to the body. That said, I feel that Swanson’s kicking arsenal may come in handy with this particular matchup.

Ortega, who has not faced many highly skilled kickers in his career, would find himself at the end of multiple kicks in his last contest against Renato Moicano. Coupled with the fact that Swanson is sneaky at disguising kicks behind punches, and we could see fireworks should the veteran find his rhythm.

Where the potential flames of this fight being to raise further, is anytime these two hit the floor.

By now, the secret (somewhat) is out on the grappling phenom from the Gracie Torrence academy. As we saw in his first few fights under the UFC banner, Ortega’s transitional grappling was already at a high level, displaying a deceptive process to his jiu-jitsu prowess.

Not afraid to fight from his back, Ortega has little issue in succeeding position off of failed takedown attempts. And should his opponents follow him to the floor, they often get more than they bargained for.

Similar to the mythological Hydra is the spirit of Ortega’s guard game.

Once inside of Ortega’s grasp, the Gracie black belt immediately gets to work, giving his opposition multiple problems to deal with while chaining from submission-to-submission, even altering positional terms when applicable. In his most recent outing, Ortega reminded us that he can also close the show quickly given the right mistake or opportunity.

Nevertheless, Ortega will likely have to work hard for his gains in this matchup.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Rigan Machado, Swanson is no slouch when it comes to finding his way around the mat. Swanson, whose transitional flow follows him to the floor, floats seamlessly on top while deciding whether or not to strike, scramble or secure position.

Although Swanson will need to stay on high alert at all times (Ortega is as potent as he is playful), the veteran’s improvements in his wrestling may help him hedge his bets.

In recent years, we have seen measurable upgrades to Swanson’s wrestling ability, whether it be his defensive framing or the overall awareness and application of his hips. Should he exercise those on-paper advantages, it may help him dictate or deter the offensive grappling attempts of Ortega.

The oddsmakers and public do not seem to be too confident in either party, given that the betting lines are at a near pick’em as of this writing. And after running through the tape, I can’t blame them.

Part of me feels that Ortega – who appears to be beyond durable and capable a competing for five hard rounds – can pressure-cook his way to a fight-ending opportunity, whether it be by a flying knee or a slick submission.

However, I suspect that Swanson – being the savvier striker – will be able to frustrate and outland an eagerly pressuring Ortega. I do not believe the veteran is done by any stretch, and I also see his speed and power edge still being present.

Don’t me wrong: Ortega improves from fight to fight, and Swanson is bound to slow down at some point. But even if I feel that big things await for Ortega, it is hard for anyone to escape the inevitable first UFC defeat. Ultimately, I see Swanson outpointing Ortega in a competitive contest that’s decided on the scorecards.

Official pick: Swanson by decision

For more on UFC Fight Night 123, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.