UFC 223 opening odds: Champ Tony Ferguson a firm underdog vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Tony Ferguson will enter UFC 223 as the champion but not as the favorite.

UFC President Dana White, who recently said the fight would happen, today announced that interim lightweight titleholder Ferguson (23-3 MMA, 13-1 UFC) and Khabib Nurmagomedov (25-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) are indeed booked for the event.

UFC 223 takes place April 7 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., with the main card on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Despite entering on a tear and being the much more active competitor, Ferguson opens up as a firm underdog to Nurmagomedov, according to the Oddessa Line. Veteran MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa has set Nurmagomedov at -200 and Ferguson at +165.

At those odds, a winning $100 bet on Nurmagomedov would result in a net profit of $50 (implied win probability of 66.7 percent). A winning $100 bet on Ferguson, meanwhile, would net a profit of 165 (37.7 percent win probability).

Ferguson currently is on a 10-fight winning streak, including an impressive third-round submission of Kevin Lee in October at UFC 216 to claim interim gold. Ferguson’s streak dates back to 2013. In that same time period, the undefeated Nurmagomedov has just four fights, most recently a dominant decision win over Edson Barboza last month at UFC 219.

Khabib’s inactivity has factored into the line.

“I don’t know if Khabib is going to take him down at will, but he’s going to take him down and hold him there long enough to win rounds and win the fight,” Odessa told MMAjunkie. “If there weren’t so many cancellations and inactivity with Khabib, the price would be higher. Out-of-sight, out-of-mind mentality often brings down a guy’s stock in the eye of public opinion but not in Khabib’s case.

“He’s looked even more impressive in his recent limited appearances. He was sitting around the same price when he was forced to pull out of UFC 209, and not much has changed.”

This marks the fourth time that Ferguson and Nurmagomedov have been booked against each other after three previous fights failed to materialize. After each pulled out of one scheduled bout due to injury, Ferguson, No. 2 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMAjunkie MMA lightweight rankings, and No. 3 Nurmagomedov were most recently signed to fight each other at UFC 209 last March. The fight for the then-vacant interim title fell apart on weigh-in day, though, when Nurmagomedov was hospitalized after a failed weight cut.

For more on UFC 222, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.