UFC 222 main-event breakdown: Can Yana Kunitskaya do unthinkable, upset Cris Cyborg?

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of UFC 222’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event.

UFC 222 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Cris Cyborg (19-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC)

Cris Cyborg.

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8? Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 68?
• Last fight: Decision win over Holly Holm (Dec. 30, 2017)
• Camp: RVCA Gym (California)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Strikeforce and Incivta FC titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 16 KO victories
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Superb killer instinct
+ Evolved striking
^ Shot selection and technique
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid wrestling and takedown ability
^ Favors bodylocks and lateral drops
+ Good positional grappler
^ Devastating ground striker

Yana Kunitskaya (10-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Yana Kunitskaya.

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8? Age: 28 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: N/A”
• Last fight: Decision win over Raquel Pa’aluhi (Aug. 31, 2017)
• Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Invicta bantamweight champion
+ Tae kwon do accolades
+ Muay Thai accolades
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate shot selection
+ Diverse kicking arsenal
+ Deceptively strong in clinch
^ Active knees in close
+ Shows improved wrestling fundamentals
+ Competent transitional grappler

Summary:

The main event in Las Vegas features a featherweight title fight between Cris Cyborg and Yana Kunitskaya.

With the initial headliner of Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar getting reshuffled, Cyborg – who is fresh off a successful title defense against Holly Holm at UFC 219 – has opted to make a quick turnaround to help a fight card in need. And though that sentiment sounds nice in theory, the reigning champion won’t be playing with house money given that her belt is still on the line.

Answering the call is Invicta FC bantamweight champion Kunitskaya, a lifelong martial artist who has been eagerly awaiting her chance to fight on the big stage. Despite Kunitskaya’s shot coming north of the weight class that she typically competes at, the Russian is willing to oblige her opportunity to break both the bookies and barometers of our sport.

Although this matchup may initially strike you as a strung-together Tyson fight from the early 90’s, it pits together two skilled-strikers who have dedicated respectable stretches of their life to crafting themselves as martial artists.

Starting her career in Brazil and eventually moving shop to the U.S, Cyborg has found a place to call home in Southern California, working with Jason Parillo to sharpen up her striking. A coach who has helped refine fighters such as B.J. Penn and Michael Bisping, Parillo’s influence and subsequent work with Cyborg has shown to play a role in her evolution over the past few years.

Now, displaying a much more measured approach, the 32-year-old will steadily stalk forward while managing the distance to her preferred terms. Upgrading her overall stance, Cyborg seems to keep her balance much better, seldom throwing herself out of position.

Prodding with a jab to enter space, Cyborg needs all but the slightest bite (or sign of blood in the water) to swarm her opposition with offensive waves. However, given the opponent at hand, it will be interesting to see what method the Brazilian applies.

Training in multiple martial arts disciplines since the age 4, Kunitskaya commands range well and seems to have a good grasp of distance. Whether she is utilizing Thai marches and teeps or leaping in-and-out of space, Kuntiskaya can fight competently going forward or off the back foot.

When feeling in stride, Kunitskaya is not shy in unloading spinning assaults, or even karate-style blitzes if her opposition shows signs of being wounded. The 28-year-old also does well when mixing leg kicks into her repertoire of straight punches, something that could pose problems for her counterpart on paper.

If Kunitskaya can stick-and-move with effect, then perhaps she can take this fight into later rounds and fluster the champ. However, I suspect that the clinch will be the place where exchanges are punctuated and potentially decided.

Carrying deceptive strength in this space, Kunitskaya has shown measurable improvements to her clinch game. Displaying more of an urgency for frames and underhook since moving shop to Jackson-Wink MMA, the 9-year pro can now better translate the knees from her muay Thai background.

Still, Kunitskaya’s defensive framing and underhook awareness will have to be on point if she intends on tying up with Cyborg.

From unloading knees of her own in the Thai plum to hitting lateral drops off an over-under, Cyborg commands a diverse skill set in close quarters. When able to ground her opponents, the Brazilian’s assault only seems to intensify.

A no-nonsense grappler, Cyborg prioritizes position over submission.

Whether she is attacking or defending submissions, Cyborg does well at killing or creating scrambles on her terms. Typically wasting little time in settling in on top, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt will apply steady doses of forearm or shoulder pressure, securing her target for the strikes that are soon to follow.

Displaying intelligent hand-fighting and positional awareness in and out of the guard, Cyborg stays hard to submit throughout her ground assaults. If Kunitskaya can’t hit a hail mary armbar or get back to her feet safely, then it will likely be a long night for the Russian.

The oddsmakers and public are overwhelmingly decided on this one, listing Cyborg -1650 and Kunitskaya +1075 as of this writing.

With these type of spreads being hard to swallow in a sport as volatile as cage fighting, Cyborg is one of the few who arguably earns that respect. And though her dominance is not beyond being checked, I don’t see this being that spot.

Kunitskaya’s best bet will likely come in the form of a game plan that resembles the approach of Holm. The problem, however, is that Kunitskaya does not appear to have the same physicality or athleticism fuel her efforts. Ultimately, I see Cyborg seeking a short night at the office, closing in on Kunitskaya and forcing a finish on the floor come the second round.

Official pick: Cyborg inside the distance

For more on UFC 222, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.