UFC 222 co-main-event breakdown: Can Brian Ortega be the one who finishes Frankie Edgar?

(This story was originally published on Feb. 28, 2018.)

MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of UFC 222’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC 222 takes place today at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE:

• UFC 222 main-event breakdown: Can Yana Kunitskaya do unthinkable, upset Cris Cyborg?

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Frankie Edgar (27-5-1 MMA, 16-5-1 UFC)

Frankie Edgar.

Staple info:

• Height: 5’6? Age: 36 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 68?
• Last fight: TKO win over Yair Rodriguez (May 13, 2017)
• Camp: Ricard Almeida Jiu-jitsu (New Jersey)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ 4x Div. 1 All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 4 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Enters and exits off angles
+ Superb timing and transitions
+ Effective chain wrestling
+ Excellent grappling ability
^ Positionally aware/scrambles well
+ Active ground striker

Brian Ortega (13-0-1 MMA, 5-0-1 UFC)

Brian Ortega.

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8? Age: 27 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69?
• Last fight: Submission win over Cub Swanson (Dec. 2, 2017)
• Camp: Blackhouse MMA (California)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ RFA featherweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork
^ Will switch stances
+ Busy and building striker
^ Puts together punches well
+ Accurate knees
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Superb submision chains
+ Dangerous guard game
^ Active hips and deceptive strikes

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC 222 features an impromptu featherweight fight with high stakes attached, as Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega are set to do battle.

Edgar, a perennial top-contender and future UFC Hall of Famer, was set for another bid at the title until an unfortunate injury sidelined current champion, Max Holloway. Stepping in on a little over three weeks notice is top-ranked featherweight Ortega, who is fresh off a submission win over Cub Swanson and still riding the wave of an undefeated prospect.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between a stick-and-move stylist and a relentless pressure-fighter.

Despite being known for his dangerous ground game, Ortega has shown measurable strides in his striking. Consistently keeping light on his toes, the 27-year-old stays ready to throw or move with his opposition, steadily setting the temperature to apply his pressuring approach.

Working behind a decent dose of feints, Ortega will flick out jabs from either stance, almost like a flint lighter for the fires that he is attempting to start.

Once Ortega gets going, he puts his punches together nicely, varying well to the body while punctuating his presence with accurate uppercuts and knees. And considering the dipping propensities of his opponent, I suspect the knees and uppercuts of Ortega may be worth watching in this fight.

That said, defense is not Ortega’s strong suit as he will arguably be more liable in exchanges than his more experienced counterpart.

MMA’s equivalent to “The Little Engine That Could,” Edgar has made a career in derailing dangerous threats.

Consistently circling outside of range and encouraging his opposition to follow, Edgar will work his way in behind a plethora of punches once finding an angle of approach to his liking

Exiting exchanges at angles that are different than the ones in which he came, Edgar hedges his bets defensively as this helps thwart the counters that come with predictability. Implementing these weapons of constant volume, variety and angles, Edgar often breaks his opposition down the longer the fight goes on.

However, Despite displaying disciplined head movement, Edgar has the propensity to take damage in his fights due to the nature of his in-and-out approach. And given that we saw a jump in Ortega’s ability to counter and intercept in his last time out, it will get interesting to see what happens if the young gun begins to get the better of Edgar in exchanges.

Owner of one of the best transition games in the sport, Edgar has little issue in hitting smooth level-changes and transitioning into a multitude of takedowns. But with the division’s most dangerous submission threat at his doorstep, I’m not sure how free-flowing Edgar will be with his attempts.

By now, the secret is out on the grappling phenom from the Gracie Torrence academy. As we saw in Ortega’s first few fights under the UFC banner, his transitional grappling was already at a high level, displaying a deceptive process to his jiu-jitsu prowess.

Not afraid to fight from his back, Ortega has little issue in succeeding position off of failed takedown attempts. And should his opponents follow him to the floor, they often get more than they bargained for.

Possessing a submission game that can make you feel like you’re fighting a mythological Hydra, Ortega can turn calm waters into sea storms in a flash.

Once inside of Ortega’s grasp, the Gracie black belt immediately goes to work by giving his opposition a multiple of problems to deal with while chaining from submission-to-submission, even altering positional terms when applicable. Nevertheless, Ortega will likely have to work hard for his gains in this matchup.

Edgar, who is a longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, has faced some of the best grapplers this division has had to offer. From BJ Penn to Charles Oliveira, Edgar’s positional awareness and submission defense have been put to the test, time and time again. Still, no one is beyond being submitted in this sport.

The oddsmakers and public seem a bit reluctant to get too confident in either party, listing Edgar -170 and Ortega +150 as of this writing.

For me, this betting line seems about right. Edgar is the far more proven fighter, but his age and activity can cause some healthy concern for a spot that smacks of a trap fight.

Ortega is getting better from performance-to-performance, and it’s safe to say that his submission ability resides in “game over” territory. Ultimately, this will either go down as respectable prospect loss that Ortega had coming, or an eye-opening shakeup that ends up being a bad matchup for Edgar in retrospect.

And despite feeling that Ortega is but a front headlock away from winning this fight, I’ll side with Edgar, who I see leaning on his foot speed and bodywork to pick apart the rising prospect in a three-round thriller.

Official pick: Edgar by decision

For more on UFC 222, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.