UFC 219 co-main event breakdown: Can Edson Barboza hand Khabib Nurmagomedov his first loss?

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 219’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC 219 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with a pay-per-view main card following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Also see:

• UFC 219 main-event breakdown: Current odds look right for Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm

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Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC)

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Staple info:

• Height: 5’10” Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70?
• Last fight: Submission win over Michael Johnson (Nov. 12, 2016)
• Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (California)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ 2x world sambo champion
+ 2x Russian combat sambo champion
+ M-1 Selecton champion
+ 8 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Developing striking game
^ Often attacks in combination
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Superb underhook awareness
+ Diverse takedown acumen
^ Chains attempts seamlessly
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ 34 passes in 8 fights

Edson Barboza (19-4 MMA, 13-4 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 75?
• Last fight: Knockout win over Beneil Dariush (Mar. 11, 2017)
• Camp: Nova Friburgo (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Multiple muay Thai accolades
^ Record of 25-3 (22 by KO)
+ 11 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Improved boxing technique
^ Jabs, pivots, check-hooks, etc.
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Underrated counter wrestling
^ 86 percent takedown defense
+ Solid butterfly guard

Summary:

The co-main event for UFC 219 features a fight between top lightweights Khabib Nurmagomedov and Edson Barboza.

Nurmagomedov, the long-hailed contender to the lightweight crown, will have another chance to state his case for an opportunity at a championship. Standing in the Dagestani’s way is Barboza, a staple at 155 pounds who is coming in to prove he, too, is ready to take the next step forward in his career.

In what has the makings of a classic styles match, each fighter will be heading into battle with different ideas of favorable terrain.

On the feet, Barboza will be the man with the striking edge.

Edson Barboza

Storming onto the scene with thunderous leg kicks, Barboza became renowned for his initial impressions, only adding to his arsenal in subsequent years. However, since doing his training camps with Mark Henry, we have steadily seen the Brazilian’s boxing game come to life.

Barboza has always possessed an underrated counter right-hand (seen early in his fight with Donald Cerrone), but has since developed his left hand.

Throwing his jab with much more efficiency, it is the improvements of Barboza’s check-hook that may serve him well in this fight. Utilizing the check-hook to punch out of exchanges or catch opponents coming in, I suspect it may come in handy against an engaging Nurmagomedov, whose aggressive entries inherently leave him open to counters.

Still, Barboza will need to be careful not to over-commit to his checks, as it could cost him considering the Dagestani’s style of pressure. Incorporating a heavy dose of feints, Nurmagomedov draws out his opponent’s reactions so that he can create openings for his approach.

From shovel hooks to overhand rights, it is Nurmagomedov’s commitment to his punches that make them so potent. Sure, there is still much to be desired in Nurmagomedov’s striking technique, but Barboza has shown throughout his career that he is not beyond being hit.

Even in looking impressive overall against Gilbert Melendez, we saw Barboza bite hard on a few of Melendez’s feints, as his check-hooks were audited by shots over the top.

Nevertheless, Barboza will still be the superior striker by a stretch. His arsenal of devastating kicks and knees keep him live at multiple ranges, including the transitionary phase of attempting a takedown, something he reminded us of in his last outing.

For that reason, I feel that the clinch will be a key-junction in this fight, as well as the doorway to Nurmagomedov’s world.

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Primarily predicating his offense off of an underhook, Nurmagomedov is OK with failing on a shot so that he can push his opposition to the fence. And once he’s in close, it usually doesn’t take long for Nurmagomedov to get what he wants.

Whether he is hitting trips and tosses from the bodylock or going through his single-leg repertoire of high-crotch hoists to snap-downs, the Dagestani can do it all. Although Barboza’s fleet-of-foot nature makes him hard to target and his underhook awareness appears to be on point – I think we can all agree that that Nurmagomedov is on another level until proven otherwise.

Should the Brazilian end up on his back, we may get a better glimpse into his tool kit.

Amongst his ability to use the cage to stand, Barboza also wields an underrated butterfly guard that he utilizes well to help him create space. Whether he is against the fence or working from a modified guard, I imagine that Barboza has only continued to fill in these holes during his time spent with Frankie Edgar and company in New Jersey.

But if Barboza fails to find answers fast, then he may be in for a long night at the office. A master when it comes to transitional grappling, Nurmagomedov crushes his opponents spirits through unforgiving wrist-rides, looking to pick posts and collapse their base anytime they attempt to stand.

The oddsmakers and public seem to share a similar opinion, listing Nurmagomedov -280 and Barboza +240 as of this writing.

As someone who picked Michael Johnson to beat Nurmagomedov, I would not at all be surprised to see Barboza score the upset here. That said, I feel that the dynamic of this matchup still favors the Dagestani.

Despite Barboza’s improvements over the years, pressure still seems to be the Achilles’ heel of his game. If Barboza can’t find a knockout by the end of the first, then I see Nurmagomedov’s grappling style amassing a scene similar to the bear attack in the Revenant. Ultimately, I predict a stoppage come Round 3.

Official pick: Nurmagomedov inside the distance

For more on UFC 219, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.