UFC 218 main-event breakdown: Will Jose Aldo make adjustments in Max Holloway rematch?

(This story was originally published on 11/28/17.)

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 218’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at the main event.

UFC 218 takes place today at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The main card airs on pay-per-vuew following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

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Max Holloway (18-3 MMA, 14-3 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 25 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69?
• Last fight: TKO win over Jose Aldo (June 3, 2017)
• Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ UFC fetherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Manages distance well
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Moves laterally/attacks off angles
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ 83 percent takedown defense rate
+ Deceptively counters clinches/grappling
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition

Jose Aldo (26-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’7? Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70?
• Last fight: TKO loss to Max Holloway (June 3, 2017)
• Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ WEC featherweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 4x Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion
+ 14 KO victories
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
^ Good reactive instincts
+ Superb footwork
^ Lateral movement, pivots, back-steps
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Jabs and counter crosses
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Strong hips and base
^ 92 percent takedown defense rate

Summary:

UFC 218’s main event features a rematch between two of the world’s best featherweights: Max Holloway and Jose Aldo.

Originally slated to defend his belt against Frankie Edgar (who was forced to withdraw from the bout due to injury), Holloway will instead welcome back his most recent foe.

Aldo, who was already in a training camp for a fight with Ricardo Lamas on Dec. 16, was eager to accept the slot despite having to cut two weeks off his scheduled prep time.

Although we have recently seen this fight play out, we have to remember that what we saw earlier this year was only one version of how these two potentially match up.

Still, much of the dynamic remains the same: We have a high-volume striker whose game builds with time, against a devastatingly accurate tactician who uses defensive and round-winning savvy to stay above water.

As we saw in their first meeting, Aldo carried an edge early, utilizing his patented approach of pressure to counter with effect.

Commanding the cage with disciplined and technical footwork, we have seen Aldo, time-and-time-again, steadily pressure his opponents into exchanges. Consistently keeping his feet beneath him, the Brazilian is seldom out of position, and this allows him to counter with conviction.

Displaying a solid sense of head movement, Aldo often slips and returns authoritatively with right hands or leg kicks. When pressing forward, Aldo has traditionally been known for his classic Dutch combination, launching a left hook to the liver that feeds nicely into a right leg kick.

However, as many have already noted, Aldo has been reluctant to go to his leg kicks in recent years. If you listen to the Brazilian’s coaches and corner, then you will hear them telling their fighter to use them sparingly, only encouraging Aldo to kick toward the end of rounds or the fight itself.

Against opposition that posed a tangible wrestling threat, this strategy was perfectly understandable. But when faced with an opponent like Holloway – a fighter who is asking for leg kicks on paper – the Brazilian’s offerings were surprisingly vacant.

Even though Aldo’s team later claimed he came into that contest with a leg injury, it is hard for me to ignore the loaded stance that Holloway was showing, keeping one-two counters on a hair-trigger that thwarted Aldo’s lone leg-kick attempt.

Nevertheless, Aldo’s looming leg kicks will be worth watching for heading into this rematch, especially if he attaches them to the counter crosses and hooks he was having success with in their first fight. Should the former champion once again find himself in the driver’s seat early, he will need to be able to sustain his gains against the building style of Holloway.

Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the scene (as one of the youngest fighters signed by the promotion, I might add), Holloway turned a dramatic corner when encountering Cub Swanson.

Since then, we have seen consistent technical evolutions from fight to fight from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether he is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, Holloway makes for a hard read.

When feeling in stride, the Hawaiian looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.

That all said, it is the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of his stable.

Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway will not only build in output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and adds it to his arsenal.

Although the on-paper statistics will tell you that the Hawaiian absorbs a lot of leg kicks, the numbers aren’t always indicative of the action.

For example, in his fight with Lamas, Holloway ate a healthy dose of leg kicks throughout the battle. However, in looking closer at the exchanges, you will see Holloway steadily get a read on the attacks – evading, checking and countering the kicks by the end of their contest.

But regardless of the potential possibilities standing, it is on the floor where I feel that some intentions and intangibles may lie.

Even though their last battle saw Holloway get the better of a compromised Aldo on the ground, we did not see the Brazilian ever attempt to employ his forecasted advantages in the grappling department prior.

With the quick-footed demonstrations of agility being Aldo’s modus operandi in regards to his takedown defense, we often forget about the offensive wrestling game that has seemingly died down in the recent years of his career. Given the way his last fight went, I would not be shocked to see Aldo dust off his offensive takedowns here.

The problem, however, is that Holloway has only been taken down three times in the past four years. And considering how often the Hawaiian competes, that stat is especially impressive since Holloway only seems to get better from fight to fight.

Should Aldo attempt a shot in close, he will need to mind Holloway’s guillotine threats and defensive fundamentals. Even when having his takedown defense tested by one of the best wrestlers in the division, Holloway successfully thwarted the shots of Lamas while re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own.

Not only does Holloway show the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows an excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, and that will also be worth watching for in this fight.

The oddsmakers have opened Holloway as the clear favorite, with the public pushing the width of the betting lines – with Holloway -300 and Aldo +230 of this writing – even further.

Since the result of this contest played out just six months ago, I can obviously understand their sentiment. And with my first official prediction coming to fruition in said time, it also makes it hard for me to shift my stance.

Aldo is, and will always be, a legend whose breadth of talent was something that was hard to measure in a single outing. You almost have to (and I suggest you do) go back and rewatch the Brazilian’s rise through the WEC and before to understand what made him great.

I do not mean for that to read like an obituary since this is still a winnable fight for the former featherweight kingpin – but I don’t like his chances.

If Aldo, who traditionally takes rounds off to regroup, does not capitalize on counters standing nor find a finish on the floor early, then I feel that facing a builder like Holloway will once again bring about the point of diminishing returns faster than expected. Ultimately, I see Holloway swaying this battle’s momentum around the same time, getting the job done more decisively than before.

Official pick: Holloway inside the distance

For more on UFC 218, check out the MMA Rumors section of he site.