UFC 218 co-main-event breakdown: Can Francis Ngannou stop underdog Alistair Overeem?

(This story was originally published on 11/29/17.)

MMAjunkie Radio cohost and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC 218’s main-card bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event.

UFC 218 takes place today at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

ALSO SEE: UFC 218 main-event breakdown: Will Jose Aldo make adjustments in Max Holloway rematch?

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Alistair Overeem (43-15 MMA, 8-4 UFC)

Alistair Overeem

Staple info:

• Height: 6’5? Age: 37 Weight: 265 lbs. Reach: 80?
• Last fight: Decision win over Fabricio Werdum (July 8, 2017)
• Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Strikeforce and DREAM heavyweight titles
+ K-1 grand prix heavyweight champion (2010)
+ ADCC European winner
+ 21 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 31 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Excellent footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
+ Devastating knees and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
+ Underrated takedown ability
+ Solid top control
^ Good grip-fighting/ground striking
+ Dangerous guillotine choke
+ Especially from front-headlock
– Dropped in 6 of last 11 fights

Francis Ngannou (10-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC)

Francis Ngannou

Staple info:

• Height: 6’4? Age: 31 Weight: 250 lbs. Reach: 83?
• Last fight: TKO win over Andrei Arlovski (Jan. 28, 2017)
• Camp: UFC Performance Institute (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
^ Maintains composure and endurance
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, crosses, shovel/check-hooks
+ Hard knees inside of the clinch
+ Improved takedown defense
^ Strong hips and fundamentals
+ Good getup ability
^ Cage and underhook awareness
+ 100 percent finishing rate

Summary:

UFC 218’s co-main event features a heavyweight showdown between Alistair Overeem and Francis Ngannou.

One of the most accoladed heavyweights in the history of the sport, Overeem has accomplished almost everything under the sun – minus a UFC championship. Looking to state his case for a second swing at current heavyweight kingpin Stipe Miocic, Overeem will first have turn away a hungry young lion.

Enter Ngannou.

A physical specimen who requires no pointing for attention, the native of Cameroon has been a bright beacon in a division desperate for new blood. Now, at the doorstep of his most dangerous opponent to date, Ngannou will attempt to take his counterpart’s ranking as the No. 1 contender.

Although it can be easy to point to the physique and build of Ngannou, it is his fight IQ and rate of technical progressions that blow me away. As many now know, Ngannou came from Cameroon with basically nothing, and was introduced to MMA shortly after he arrived in Paris during the summer of 2013.

Four years later, he finds himself as a top-five heavyweight talent on the world’s biggest stage.

Despite his imposing presence and knockout power, Ngannou refreshingly relies on neither to get the job done. Whether throwing straight or variating his patent up-jabs and shovel-hooks, Ngannou seems to prefer conducting traffic from his left hand.

Even on the occasion of fighting from a southpaw stance, Ngannou displays comfort and competency in throwing his left cross both coming forward and off of the counter.

Utilizing feints and pivoting well within close quarters, the 31-year-old keeps a good sense of space, managing distance well when he chooses to.

However, as impressive as Ngannou’s movement is, he is not beyond being hit while coming forward, which makes the striking dynamic of this fight a compelling one. And given the knockout potency Ngannou poses, I suspect we will see Overeem continue the trend of counter-fighting that has served him well in recent years.

In facing previous power-punching threats, we saw Overeem play near the outside edges of the cage for safe distance – keeping his space – and looking for his openings. If you have been watching Overeem since his days in PRIDE, then you will know that the Dutchman didn’t always fight this way.

Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn’t until Overeem’s run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork and approach.

Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, it was Overeem’s confidence in his head movement and technique that often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. But after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, the Dutchman seemed to find a home at Jackson-Wink, where he would embrace a slightly different method than before.

Like many fighters who come from that camp, Overeem will now circle on the outside comfortably as the 37-year-old looks to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run.

Among the highest striking accuracy in the division, this style is optimal for Overeem and also plays a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness.

Assuming neither man starches the other with immediacy during the initial striking stanzas, then I suspect the clinch will be a key junction in this matchup.

Aside from Josh Barnett as my honorable mention, you can certainly make an argument for Overeem being the best heavyweight clinch fighter in MMA. Renowned for his devastating knees in-close, it is the slick grip and hand-fighting of the Dutchman that allows him to construct his demolitions.

The lynchpin for striking with effectiveness from both the clinch and the ground comes down the same thing: the ability to grip fight. Hence why most good ground-and-pounders make for good clinch strikers and vice versa.

Should Overeem try to ground Ngannou with his underrated takedown game from the body-lock, he could remind us of his striking acumen on the floor. And if Ngannou looks to get back to his feet, I suspect Overeem will abuse any opportunity from a front-headlock to apply his patent guillotine.

Nevertheless, grounding Ngannou appears to be a task that is becoming increasingly difficult. Accustom to his opposition trying to take him down, Ngannou has spent the early portion of his career having to defend takedowns from the fence or barrier.

Spreading out his 6-foot-4 frame into a wide-reaching base, Ngannou keeps calm and collected, all while utilizing defensive fundamentals in a step-by-step fashion. He also shows a surprising amount of muscular endurance in these positions despite his build.

When put on his back, Ngannou displays a solid awareness of grips himself, using wrist-controls and collar ties to fuel his submission attempts or getup transitions.

Even in his first and lone defeat (roughly four months after being introduced to MMA), Ngannou was already showing a subtle understanding of the intricacies regarding groundwork, cleverly defending from otherwise bad spots. Since then, Ngannou has only improved, as I have to imagine this last year spent training stateside has helped is already astounding trends.

The oddsmakers and public seem to be believers in Ngannou, making an increasingly wide margin on the betting lines – with Ngannou -260 and Overeem +220 of this writing.

As a natural contrarian, I tend to stay skeptical until I see the majority of proverbial stones turned over. Although Ngannou is a captivating talent (and for a good reason), his sample size of struggles and scenarios are still somewhat limited in the big picture thus far.

With that in mind, I would not at all be surprised to see Overeem – the craftier and more well-versed fighter – halt the phenom from Cameroon with a counter left cross or crush him with an unsuspecting liver kick. But for me, this matchup ultimately smacks of a classic tale in 1962: Sonny Liston’s first meeting with Floyd Patterson.

Liston, one of the most devastating punchers boxing had seen at the time, was unabashedly making his way toward to the title. Holding the championship was Patterson, a handsome, athletic and agile heavyweight boxer.

Patterson’s trainer, Cus D’Amato (the same man who later trained Mike Tyson), secretly wanted nothing to with the matchup. D’Amato knew that he had a championship caliber fighter who could out-move his opposition – but he also knew that Patterson had the chin of a poet.

Despite being the champion, Patterson would close as an 8-5 betting underdog, inevitably being knocked out within minutes of the first round. I see history repeating itself here with Ngannou stopping Overeem.

Official pick: Ngannou inside the distance

For more on UFC 218, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.