The UFC 206 fight card may have undergone some facelifts that make it less appealing than before, but it still has some fights that fans won't want to miss.
The headliner Saturday night is a featherweight bout with title implications in Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis. Technically the bout is for the interim title, although it is debatable whether anyone cares. To make the situation even stranger, Holloway is now the only one who can win the belt since Pettis missed weight Friday, per Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com.
Regardless of what's on the line, Holloway vs. Pettis a fun matchup that goes along with the theme for the rest of the card. No one is going to confuse the lineup with the more stacked cards of 2016, but the fights should be entertaining.
Here's a look at the complete card along with the latest odds from OddsShark and predictions for some of the bigger bouts on the card.
| Main Card | PPV | 10 p.m. ET | |
| Weight Class | Favorite | Underdog | Prediction |
| Catchweight (148 pounds) | Max Holloway (5-12) | Anthony Pettis (19-10) | Holloway |
| Welterweight | Donald Cerrone (4-11) | Matt Brown (43-20) | Cerrone |
| Featherweight | Doo Ho Choi (4-9) | Cub Swanson (7-4) | Choi |
| Middleweight | Tim Kennedy (5-7) | Kelvin Gastelum (11-10) | Gastelum |
| Welterweight | Jordan Mein (20-31) | Emil Meek (5-4) | Meek |
| Prelims | Fox Sports 1 | 8 p.m. ET | |
| Light Heavyweight | Misha Cirkunov (10-13) | Nikita Krylov (1-1) | Krylov |
| Lightweight | Olivier Aubin-Mercier (4-7) | Drew Dober (29-20) | Aubin-Mercier |
| Catchweight (117.5) | Valerie Letourneau (5-8) | Viviane Pereira (13-10) | Letourneau |
| Bantamweight | Mitch Gagnon (5-8) | Matthew Lopez (13-10) | Gagnon |
| Prelims | Fight Pass | 6:30 p.m. ET | |
| Lightweight | Landon Vannata (20-37) | John Makdessi (3-2) | Makdessi |
| Catchweight (158 pounds) | Rustam Khabilov (1-2) | Jason Saggo (17-10) | Khabilov |
| Flyweight | Zach Makovsky (20-33) | Dustin Ortiz (27-20) | Makovsky |
UFC.com; Odds via Odds Shark; Author's predictions
Tim Kennedy vs. Kelvin Gastelum
The middleweight matchup between Tim Kennedy and Kelvin Gastelum is important because it's likely to introduce a new name to watch in the division.
Well, it will likely reintroduce a new name to the division.
Kennedy is making his return to the Octagon for the first time in two years. The last time we saw him he suffered a controversial knockout loss to Yoel Romero, but it's important to remember that a four-fight win streak preceded that loss, including a decision win over Michael Bisping.
Gastelum, meanwhile, is making his return to the 185-pound division after repeated failed attempts to make the cut down to 170 pounds. The middleweight division is difficult for him at just 5'9", but his muscular build makes him a true tweener.
A win for Gastelum could be just what he needs to see if he can compete in the division. However, he still believes that his future is at 170 pounds.
“Right now, we’re working on trying to get my next fight at 170,” Gastelum said, per Dave Pollard of the Winnipeg Sun. “This has been a big headache, a big episode I had to go through in my life. I just want to put it behind me.”
A win over Kennedy might finally convince him that the weight cut to 170 isn't for him, though.
The 37-year-old Kennedy is a wily veteran with enough technical skills as a striker and wrestler to be labeled the favorite. However, a lot is going against the former Green Beret in this bout.
Gastelum may have trouble finding a weight class, but he's nevertheless a great athlete. He covers the distance created by his height disadvantage with explosive athleticism and solid power.
In addition to his physical tools, Gastelum is 12 years younger than his opponent. We might not be sure how much Kennedy has left in the tank after his long layoff, but we do know that Gastelum is closer to his athletic prime.
Prediction: Gastelum via decision
Cub Swanson vs. Doo Ho Choi
The matchup between Doo Ho Choi and Cub Swanson is the classic prospect vs. gatekeeper matchup, and it should result in some beautiful violence.
The Korean Superboy is still a bit of an enigma, but he's made an impression with three first-round wins in the UFC. The combination of baby-face looks and devastating knockout power makes him an intriguing prospect with true star potential if he continues along his current path.
The UFC has already started to give him some push:
South Korea's @KoreanSuperBoy7 has yet to see the 2nd round in a UFC bout! Three 1st round finishes! ?? #UFC206 pic.twitter.com/TIPkpHCAa1
— UFC (@ufc) December 9, 2016
If it's the UFC's goal to figure out just how much push Choi should get, then Swanson is the perfect opponent. The 33-year-old has fought a who's who of the featherweight division from Jens Pulver, Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes during his WEC days to Ricardo Lamas, Frankie Edgar and Holloway in the UFC. He's lost only to legitimate contenders.
Swanson is a crafty striker who isn't going to make too many mistakes on the feet. As Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report described, that plays right into testing Choi's aggressive counterpunching style:
Choi is an aggressive counterpuncher. He likes to press forward, flicking a sharp jab and heavy kicks, until he gets into the pocket. Once he's in range, he waits for the opponent to throw before responding with vicious, fight-ending counter combinations. Both hands carry knockout power, and he has the timing, speed and craft necessary to clip just about anyone in the division. He's even willing to try flying knees as a counter.
It's hard to say with confidence because of the sample size—Choi has less than five minutes of Octagon time—but Choi's power seems like the great equalizer here. With as many battles as Swanson has been in during his long career, it shouldn't take long for Choi to put the veteran away after he lands a big shot.
Prediction: Choi via second-round TKO
Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis
Say what you will about the ramifications of this fight, but it has the making of a fun contest.
The featherweight division is in flux right now with the apparent exodus of Conor McGregor. The new champion, Jose Aldo, is still just one fight removed from a 13-second knockout loss at the hands of the Irishman. Although the interim title being attached to this fight seems arbitrary, it still paves a path for Holloway to become the next champion.
Pettis' weight-cutting gaffe means that the path for him is less clear, but it stands to reason that a win here would have similar meaning for him. He hasn't missed weight in the past, so it's not a recurring issue.
Holloway comes in as the favorite. A lot of that is the result of his nine-fight win streak, but it's important to remember that Pettis' power can change a fight on a dime. According to Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, Pettis has one of the best knockdown rates on the card:
KO Potential at #UFC206 & what it means for your fantasy team.
Doo Ho Choi's stats through 3 fights are insane.https://t.co/Yq6BRA3Ehk pic.twitter.com/4kczpn5GWZ
— Fightnomics Reed (@Fightnomics) December 8, 2016
Pettis will have to land a fight-changing blow at some point, though. He's not likely to outpoint Holloway. The Hawaiian is a gifted technical striker, and the blueprint for beating Pettis, which involves pressuring him as much as possible and limiting the amount of space he has to work with, plays into his strengths.
However, there should be moments when Pettis forces Holloway to show off his toughness. Those moments will be fun to watch, but ultimately Holloway's consistent pressure should see him win a five-round decision.
Prediction: Holloway via decision
