Robbie Lawler's third welterweight title defense headlines the card for UFC 201 at Atlanta's Philips Arena on Saturday night. The champion has endured some gruelling recent bouts and faces a skilled challenger who has had to wait for his big chance: Tyron Woodley.
The Lawler and Woodley tussle isn't the only notable bout on the main card, though. Rose Namajunas' meeting with fellow contender Karolina Kowalkiewicz deservedly has co-main event billing.
Here are the schedule details for the pay-per-view event:
Date: Saturday, June 30
Time: Main Card (10 p.m. ET/3 a.m. BST). Early Prelims (7 p.m. ET/12 a.m. BST). FS2 Prelims (8 p.m. ET/1 a.m. BST).
Here's the full fight card information, along with odds:
| Card | Fight | Odds |
| Main | Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley | Lawler (-149, -280). Woodley (+129, +200). |
| Main | Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Namajunas (-212, -270). Kowalkiewicz (+182, +190). |
| Main | Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger | Brown (-265, -145). Ellenberger (+225, +105). |
| Main | Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez | Rivera (+150, +106). Perez (-175, -134). |
| Main | Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano | Benoit (+110, -105). Serrano (-130, -135). |
| FS2 Prelims | Nikita Krylov vs. Ed Herman | Krylov (-210, -210). Herman (+180, +160). |
| FS2 Prelims | Ross Pearson vs. Jorge Masvidal | Pearson (+190, +170). Masvidal (-225, -230). |
| FS2 Prelims | Anthony Hamilton vs. Damian Grabowski | Hamilton (-135, -110). Grabowski (+115, -130). |
| FS2 Prelims | Wilson Reis vs. Hector Sandoval | Reis (-285, -315). Sandoval (+245, +235). |
| Early Prelims | Michael Graves vs. Bojan Velickovic | Graves (-220, -175). Velickovic (+185, +135). |
| Early Prelims | Cesar Arzamendia vs. Damien Brown | Arzamendia (-105, +105). Brown (-115, -145). |
UFC.com and Odds Shark
Predictions
Choosing a winner between Lawler and Woodley is no easy task, but at least two experts agree about how the headline fight will play out. ESPN's Brett Okamoto is going for a fourth-round TKO for the defending champion, while Jonathan Bradley of Fox Sports also fancies a Lawler knockout in the fourth.
A common theme for each writer is punching power, both in terms of each fighter's chops as strikers, along with their ability to absorb shots.
The latter is a consideration Okamoto is unable to ignore. He's cited telling statistics that suggest Lawler will be under pressure if Woodley can land consistently up top: "According to FightMetric, Lawler has absorbed 642 strikes since the start of 2014. He's gone five hellacious rounds, back-to-back-to-back. When do these wars catch up? Lawler is 34 in human years—and probably something like 112 in fighter years."
In order for Woodley to exploit those concerns, though, he'll need to connect with significant strikes. It's an area in which he's inferior to the champion, however, according to Bradley: "Lawler and Woodley have virtually identical striking statistics, with both fighters landing over three strikes per minute at a 46-percent clip. Where they differ, however, is in significant strikes, as Lawler lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.56 for Woodley."
Assessing Woodley's punching power is a common theme ahead of this fight. UFC Europe also asked whether the 34-year-old challenger can pack enough into his fists to put Lawler down decisively:
Does @TWooodley have the KO power to walk off with the belt at #UFC201 tonight? pic.twitter.com/qG5wvdYl2l
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) July 30, 2016
Counting on Woodley to land a knockout blow is a risky bet, since he's more at home as a grappler. Unfortunately for the challenger, that's an area where Lawler is rarely troubled.
So count on Lawler making good on these predictions and using his own skill as a striker to wear down and eventually knock Woodley out.
When Namajunas meets Kowalkiewicz, she'll have to be mindful of the latter's ferocity as a hitter. FightMetric detailed how Kowalkiewicz lands 6.17 significant strikes per minute.
Countering those fast and tough hands will demand keeping things on the mat. Fortunately for Namajunas, her 3.49 takedowns average, along with 66 percent takedowns accuracy, per FightMetric, means she's well-equipped to take her opponent out of her comfort zone.
If Namajunas can break down Kowalkiewicz's underrated defense and keep her grounded, she's more likely to lock on the submission hold that can end this intriguing fight.
