UFC 158 preview: Predictable Diaz could make it easy night for champ St-Pierre

Separate the emotion from the cold, hard reality of the welterweight title fight that headlines UFC 158, and you have a pretty simple fight breakdown.

Let’s not even entertain for a moment that Nick Diaz (26-8 MMA, 7-5 UFC) isn’t going to wind up on his back when he fights Georges St-Pierre (23-2 MMA, 17-2 UFC) at Saturday’s event, which takes place at Bell Centre in Montreal (main-card fights air live on pay-per-view following prelims on FX and Facebook). Let’s talk about what he’s going to do when he gets there, and why that makes St-Pierre’s eighth straight title defense a safe bet.

No matter how angry he is at how he’s been treated by the welterweight title challenger in the buildup to the fight, champ St-Pierre is not going to deviate from the smartest path to victory, and in the case of Diaz, all the insults and insinuations don’t change the fact that he’s never fared well against strong wrestlers.

So St-Pierre is going to take down Diaz repeatedly, and he’s going to do it after establishing a jab and throwing a few dozen leg kicks, which are unlikely to be blocked by the durable-to-his-own-detriment challenger from Stockton, Calif.

Diaz, who returns from a 13-month layoff courtesy of a second marijuana suspension, is a jiu-jitsu black belt and could probably tap St-Pierre, who this past November returned from a year-plus injury layoff with a dominant decision victory over Carlos Condit. But that’s if Diaz didn’t have to worry about elbows smashing down on him. But he will, and the longer he stays on his back, the more damage he will take.

To be sure, Diaz can take a lot of that. A phenomenal amount, in fact, considering he’s been fighting professionally for all his life. That kind of toughness could perhaps give him more time to draw St-Pierre into the firefight he asks of all of his opponents. It could give him more time on his feet, that is. But he probably won’t get enough time to do the kind of damage that gives him a chance to stop St-Pierre before he gets deposited on the mat.

A little bit (actually a lot) of wrestling might help Diaz when he gets there. If his grappling were used more to create scrambles and reverse position, it might serve to give him more opportunities to do damage with his punches. But more often that not, Diaz is comfortable on his back, where he can wait for a submission opportunity. His heroes are Rickson and Royce Gracie, after all, who made careers of turning the tables from disadvantageous positions. St-Pierre won’t give him one chance to set up an armbar or triangle choke, just as he didn’t against B.J. Penn, Jake Shields or Condit, all of whom were grapplers with a jiu-jitsu base.

Maybe Diaz catches the champ on his feet in response to a lunging jab or superman punch. Maybe he begins to put together the type of combinations that have worn down opponents rather than concussed them with one shot. But it’s highly unlikely. Diaz is very predictable in the way he fights. It’s compelling that he continues to stalk opponents and goad them into a brawl. It’s even more so that he hasn’t changed his style when it so obviously would benefit him. But in the end, it’s an approach that just won’t work with someone who refuses to play his game, and St-Pierre is just that type of fighter. And he also happens to be the most explosive and athletic one Diaz has ever faced.

Five-to-one odds in current betting lines show that while fans might be entertained by the drama leading up to the fight, they aren’t deceived into thinking it might change the outcome.

Other main-card bouts

Johny Hendricks (14-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) vs. Carlos Condit (28-6 MMA, 5-2 UFC): A one-sided title eliminator serves as the event’s co-main draw, with Hendricks earning a shot at the winner of St-Pierre vs. Diaz if he gets past Condit, who was originally slated to fight Rory MacDonald. Hendricks, who originally was due to fight Jake Ellenberger before MacDonald withdrew from the event due to injury, has an easier bout on his hands if he wants to use his wrestling, which historically has been Condit’s weakness. But it’s unlikely that he’ll focus exclusively on grinding out a win unless compelled to by the length of Condit, who has both a height and reach advantage. Condit has long legs and will use them to keep distance and snipe at Hendricks during the fight. Hendricks, meanwhile, will look to get close to land his famed left hand, but being a southpaw, he could be open to counters. It’s a tough fight to call if the bout stays on its feet, but easier if Hendricks uses his natural advantage on the mat.

Jake Ellenberger (28-6 MMA, 7-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2 MMA, 10-4 UFC): Ex-Strikeforce welterweight champ Marquardt took this fight when the man who took his belt, Tarec Saffiedine, turned down the opportunity to fight Ellenberger. In stepping up, he gets a chance to leapfrog to the top of the division if he’s able to pull out a win. But it’s a question of which Marquardt shows up. The one who gets out of his own way and performs without pressure is the one to beat Ellenberger. The one who over-thinks the stakes of the fight freezes, and the one who underestimates his opponent, showed up against Saffiedine. Ellenberger is a strong enough striker and grappler, but he might not have the creativity in striking to match Marquardt at his best. Of course, Ellenberger’s MMA wrestling might give him the edge if things go south after the standup portion of the fight, but this won’t be a grinding fight. Both are big punchers, so the first person to get clipped might finish quickly.

Chris Camozzi (18-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) vs. Nick Ring (13-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter” veterans Ring and Camozzi have beaten plenty of lower-tier competition but have yet to break out of the pack in the middleweight division. Camozzi is undoubtedly closer to a bigger fight if he can win this one, which would give him four straight wins. He’s likely to keep distance and try to pick apart Ring from the outside. Ring has the edge on the mat and will try to close distance to do damage from the clinch before taking the fight to the mat.

Mike Ricci (7-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Colin Fletcher (8-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC): A lightweight meeting of “TUF” veterans, this fight should see who’s learned to adjust inside the octagon. Both weren’t at their best in their recent appearances, which for Ricci was the finals of “TUF 16? and for Fletcher the finals of “TUF: Team Australia vs. Team U.K.” Ricci was not only undersized but too tentative to show his full array of skills; Fletcher was consistently beaten to the punch. The urgency is there for both fighters, who could be cut with another poor performance. Fletcher’s long and lanky frame will help him if the fight stays standing, but it’s likely that Ricci, who is more well-rounded, will try to grind him out.

The full UFC 158 card includes:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

• Champ Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz – for welterweight title
• Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks
• Jake Ellenberger vs. Nate Marquardt
• Chris Camozzi vs. Nick Ring
• Colin Fletcher vs. Mike Ricci

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Patrick Cote vs. Bobby Voelker
• Antonio Carvalho vs. Darren Elkins
• Jordan Mein vs. Dan Miller
• Daron Cruickshank vs. John Makdessi

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:35 p.m. ET)

• Quinn Mulhern vs. Rick Story
• TJ Dillashaw vs. Issei Tamura
• Reuben Duran vs. George Roop

For more on UFC 158, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of the site.

(Pictured: Nick Diaz)