Lightweight
Marco Polo Reyes (7-3, 3-0 UFC) vs. James Vick (10-1, 6-1 UFC)
First, a public service announcement: the UFC 211 televised prelims air on FX, rather than their usual FS1. You've been warned.
Now then, on to Reyes and Vick. The real subplot in this one is whether the power-striking Reyes—five of seven pro wins by knockout—can find Vick's shutdown button. It's a tall order, almost literally, with the 6'3" Vick holding a serious height advantage on the 5'11" Reyes. Go ahead and add reach as well, with Vick at 76" and Reyes at 71".
What about the ground? Reyes has never attempted a takedown and has only 40 percent takedown defense, according to UFC stats. That would seem to suggest vulnerability, except, what's this, Vick has never attempted a grand total of one takedown himself.
So this one stays standing. Reyes isn't quite polished or quick enough to get inside on Vick, and that's your ballgame.
Prediction: Vick, unanimous decision
Middleweight
Krzysztof Jotko (19-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. David Branch (20-3, 0-0 UFC)
The headline here is Branch's debut in the big, bad UFC. You may (or may not) know Branch as the quietly dominant New Yorker who held and defended not one but two titles under the World Series of Fighting banner.
It has long been observed that the UFC doesn't exactly make the way smooth for top fighters from other promotions. That unspoken tradition continues with their enlistment of Jotko to drive Branch's welcome wagon.
Like Branch, the Pole is relatively little-known, but his game is plenty loud. He fires stiff punch combinations and mixes in ever-improving kickboxing.
Branch is more well-rounded, with heavy hands and black belt jiu-jitsu under Renzo Gracie. Jotko has good takedown defense, but the thicker, stronger Branch should be able to maul him in the clinch or on the ground. Jotko is a brown belt himself but he'll fall under the sword of a motivated Branch.
Prediction: Branch, submission, Rd. 3
Featherweight
Chas Skelly (17-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. Jason Knight (16-2, 3-1 UFC)
Knight has earned plenty of fans for his aggressive volume boxing, in-cage taunting and out-of-cage microphone work, all positively Diazesque.
Also like the Diaz brothers, Knight has some very physical jiu-jitsu and is lethal from his back. (He learned under Alan Belcher, by the by.) But don't believe me; believe the 10 wins he's compiled by submission.
Skelly is absolutely no slouch on the ground. He's well-rounded and plenty experienced.
Call me crazy, but I think Knight nabs this one. It will go all the way, and every minute will be fun. The Mississippian nabs a close decision.
Prediction: Knight, unanimous decision
Lightweight
Eddie Alvarez (28-5, 3-2 UFC) vs. Dustin Poirier (21-5, 13-4 UFC)
What a prelim headliner. Man, this is a good scrap.
After moving UFCward following a successful, multi-time title stint in Bellator, Alvarez grabbed the UFC lightweight title, then held it for four months. He lost it to Conor McGregor in Madison Square Garden at UFC 205.
This is his first fight since, and naturally, redemption is in the air. Primarily a counter-fighter, Alvarez uses some really terrific movement to evade shots and deliver his own. Opponents probably shouldn't think about a takedown shot, either. His defense against such things is a sterling 92 percent. In general, wrestling is a strong deterrent against any would-be ground fighter.
But here comes Poirier. The Louisiana native has been on some kind of run since abandoning his featherweight experiment and returning to 155 pounds. The Diamond is aggressive and relentless, regardless of the phase.
This fight may hinge on whether he can do it inside. He's a demon in the clinch and can create a submission threat from there, not to mention his wicked knees and punches. He's terrific on the mat, but Alvarez and his wrestling-based submission game doesn't make that a slam dunk.
This is a terrific fight and a tremendous bit of matchmaking from UFC brass. It's a brilliant move for them to set this up as the prelim headliner for this event. This is basically a dead heat. Give me Poirier by virtue of his creativity in the scramble phase.
Prediction: Poirier, unanimous decision
view original article >>