After 411 days of waiting since her last fight, Ronda Rousey will make her long-awaited return to the Octagon against Amanda Nunes in the main event at UFC 207.
Friday's bout represents an opportunity for Rousey to not only get the women's bantamweight title back around her waist, but also prove that she can come out on the other side of her first loss as the dominant fighter that she was before the loss.
The last time we saw Rousey, she was getting stunned by Holly Holm. The former professional boxer proved to be the opponent who could look through the intimidating veneer of The Rowdy One, and she kickboxed her way to a surprise knockout victory.
Now, it's time to see if the new champion, Nunes, can follow that blueprint to another Rousey defeat or if the former champion will rise from her ashes to reclaim her throne.
Here's a look at how both fighters got to this point, followed by a prediction for the bout.
| Nunes | Rousey | |
| 13-4 | Record | 12-1 |
| 5:37 | Average Fight Time | 2:46 |
| 69" | Reach | 68" |
| 4.23 | Strikes Landed/Minute | 4.05 |
| 49% | Striking Defense | 44% |
| 2.07 | Takedowns/15 Minutes | 6.43 |
| 73% | Takedown Defense | 50% |
FightMetric
How Rousey Got Here
Ronda Rousey's journey to this point is highlighted by one of the most meteoric rises in MMA history. Rousey's takeover of the women's bantamweight division from its inception is one of the most dominant runs in UFC history.
Rousey defended the UFC title six times, with all six wins coming by way of finish and only one fight making it out of the first round.
The dominance came to a screeching halt against Holly Holm, though. Through technical striking and superior conditioning, Holm made Rousey look silly in the cage, outclassing her on the feet en route to a second-round knockout loss that became a meme for those who enjoyed Rousey's fall from the top.
The circumstances behind Rousey's loss are a bit cloudy, though. Holm was always going to be a tough stylistic matchup, but the former champion has pointed to her many media obligations and life outside the cage as a distraction that ultimately cost her inside it.
But that won't be an issue this time, according to the superstar.
“I don’t care about anything except for winning this fight, and I’m not spending energy on anything else,” Rousey said on an episode of UFC Embedded (via Damon Martin of Fox Sports).
The show is one of the few media obligations that Rousey has participated in to promote this fight, and while some of the media silence is just going toward building the fight up, the time away from the media probably has made preparation for the fight easier.
Still, the book on Rousey is out after the Holm fight. She's one of the most elite finishers in the sport. If she can get someone in the clinch, she's still likely to finish the fight by submission. However, she can be beaten through sound, technical striking that frustrates her forward charge and leaves her grasping at straws.
How Nunes Got Here
Even as champion, Amanda Nunes may be the most underrated women's bantamweight in the UFC.
She hasn't reached the popularity levels of Holm, Rousey or Miesha Tate, but she already holds a win over Tate and a UFC belt to go with her 6-1 record in the Octagon that features five first-round finishes.
Whereas Rousey loves to overpower her opponents with her takedowns and submission game, The Lioness is a fast and furious striker who is always looking for the early knockout.
Nunes' championship bout against Miesha Tate was a perfect example. While Tate is infamous for getting off to slow starts, Nunes wanted to put the pressure on early, and it paid off in a big way.
The Brazilian claimed the title in just over three minutes of fight time over Tate and showcased a lot of the skills that make her an intriguing opponent for Rousey along the way. Nunes attacked with leg kicks early, which created the distance necessary to pick apart Tate with overhand rights and jabs.
She was also able to scramble to the fight immediately after a takedown attempt and finish the fight with a submission when the opportunity presented itself.
The ability to turn takedowns into scrambles and fight from a distance will be key for Nunes as she attempts to defend her belt against the former champion.
Prediction
Simply put, these are two of the best finishers in Women's MMA. The records and highlights show that.
The question is which one is going to be able to get the fight where they want it.
Nunes obviously wants the fight to take place at range. It's where Holm was able to have success. It's where her finish of Tate was started.
“I want to step in, see what she’s going to bring, and whatever it is, I’ll be ready. I watched [the Holm fight] and took a couple things," Nunes said, per Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times. "[Rousey] made a lot of mistakes. That’s the real Ronda Rousey. From that fight, I took a lot of things and put them in my strategy.”
The only problem with that is that Holm's style and strategy is almost the exact opposite of Nunes'. While The Lioness is an aggressive finisher in the mold of Vitor Belfort, Holm is a point fighter who just happened to get the finish over Rousey as a result of her process finding success.
As good a striker as Nunes is, she isn't the same kind of striker that Holm is. Where Holm frustrated Rousey with her footwork and elusiveness, Nunes will be right there for her to find.
Ultimately, that means Rousey should be able to close the distance and clinch with Nunes when she's coming forward.
Although the aura of invincibility has been pierced, that's still not a place someone wants to be. As long as Rousey can walk through some of Nunes' power, she should be able to force this one to the ground where she can do her thing.
Rousey via second-round submission.
